Lecture 9: The Better Angels of Our Nature

GOVT 2305: Federal Government

Instructor: Tom Hanna

2026-09-16

Today

  • Long-run trends in violence, health, and prosperity
  • Why the news still feels like permanent crisis
  • Why that matters for how we think about government — and about the world

Why This Matters

Why This Matters

By the end of today you will explain why long-run declines in violence and rises in health and living standards make a habit of caution before drastic government action rational — even when the news feels like permanent crisis — and why the world (and the United States) are in much better shape than they often seem.

Bridge

  • We have defined government as organized coercive force
  • Ethics of when force is justified
  • Limits in the founding design and the Bill of Rights
  • Today: another reason for long consideration before drastic action

How It Feels

The feeling of permanent crisis

Bad news is news — slow improvement is not

Availability

What is vivid and recent feels more common than it is

Violence

Homicide over the long run

Chart of long-run homicide rates across Western Europe showing large declines from the late Middle Ages to the present

Long-run homicide rates in Western Europe

Order of magnitude

Medieval rates often 10–40+ per 100,000 — modern Western Europe near 1

Health

Life expectancy

Chart showing global life expectancy rising from around 30 years in 1900 to over 70 years today

Global life expectancy over the long run

More than twice as long

Global average ~32 years in 1900 → ~73 years in the 2020s

Child survival

Pre-modern: large shares of children died before adulthood — every country has improved

Prosperity

Extreme poverty — the share

Line chart showing the share of world population in extreme poverty falling from a large majority historically to around 9 to 10 percent today

Share of world population in extreme poverty

Despite a much larger world

Dual-axis chart showing fewer people in extreme poverty even as world population grew substantially

People in extreme poverty versus world population

Environment (one example)

Decoupling: pollution vs growth

EPA chart showing criteria air pollutant emissions declining since 1970 while U.S. GDP, vehicle miles, energy use, and population increased

U.S. air pollution emissions fell while GDP and population grew

Cuyahoga — then

Historical photograph of a fire on the Cuyahoga River in 1948

Cuyahoga River fire, 1948

Cuyahoga — then

Historical photograph of smoke from a fire on the Cuyahoga River in 1952

Smoke from Cuyahoga River fire, 1952

Cuyahoga — then

Historical photograph of three men viewing filth pulled from the Cuyahoga River

Filth pulled from the Cuyahoga River

Cuyahoga — now

Modern photograph of paddleboarders and windsurfers on the Cuyahoga River near downtown in 2019

Recreation on the Cuyahoga River near downtown, 2019

Same river

A river that repeatedly caught fire is now fishable and recreational

So What

Progress is not utopia

Remaining problems are real — they are not evidence that the baseline is civilizational collapse

  • Problems to approach rationally
  • Not “end stage capitalism” of the neo-Marxist left
  • Not “Clash of Civilizations” destruction of the extreme populists

Better than it often seems

The world, and the United States, are in much better shape on core measures of life, health, and safety than the permanent-crisis narrative suggests

Habit of caution

When the baseline is historically high peace and prosperity, drastic uses of coercive power still need long consideration before breaking a good result

Discussion

Why limit government?

Drawing on material so far:

  • Government as organized coercive force
  • Ethics of the use of force
  • Classical liberal challenge: live together peacefully as dignified equals and empower the individual
  • Overstatement of problems amid incredible human progress

Next

Next class (September 21): Quiz + Misinformation

Quiz is September 21 — not today.

Reminders

  • Module 1 Study Guide and Connect due September 18
  • Quiz: September 21

Authorship and License

Inspiration -

    - The title and much inspiration for this lecture is borrowed from the Steven Pinker book *The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined* 

    - Much inspiration is also drawn from Ray Kurzweil, *The Singularity is Nearer*

Do not submit to Quizlet, Chegg, Coursehero, or similar commercial sites.

Author Tom Hanna
Website tomhanna.me
License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

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