Opinion poll trends for the 2026 New Zealand General Election
Analysis to 5 October 2026
Dr Lindsay R Morris
Based on opinion poll modelling to 5 October 2026, National–ACT–New Zealand First collectively held a majority of seats in 27.9 percent of simulations while Labour–The Greens–Opportunity held a majority in 32.7 percent of simulations.
This short report provides key facts and figures based on opinion poll data analysed for seven political parties ahead of the 2026 New Zealand General Election (to be held on 7 November 2026). The reported estimates reflect modelled trends in polling data and should be interpreted as indicative of current public opinion rather than forecasts of the final election result.
The seven political parties reported on here are:
- The New Zealand National Party (National) with 48 seats in the current parliament
- The New Zealand Labour Party (Labour) with 34 seats
- The Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand (The Greens) with 15 seats
- ACT New Zealand (ACT) with 11 seats
- New Zealand First with 8 seats
- Te Pāti Māori with 5 seats
- The Opportunity Party (Opportunity) with no seats.
Currently, there is one independent MP in Parliament.
National, ACT, and New Zealand First currently govern as a coalition government, and are generally considered to be on the centre-right of the political spectrum. Labour, The Greens, and Te Pāti Māori are generally considered to be on the centre-left of the political spectrum. Opportunity are generally considered to be in the centre of the political spectrum.
Percent support as of 5 October 2026
Note: Values in brackets represent the model’s margin of uncertainty around the estimated level of support.
National
Estimated percent support is:
- 28.9% (± 0.7) – the highest support of any party
- down 0.6 points since 5 July 2026 (about three months ago)
- down 9.2 points from the 2023 election (38.08%)
- significantly decreasing at an estimated rate of 1.1 points per month.
Labour
Estimated percent support is:
- 28.1% (± 1.65) – 0.7 points behind National
- down 2.9 points since 5 July 2026
- up 1.2 points from the 2023 election (26.92%)
- significantly decreasing at an estimated rate of 4.69 points per month.
The Greens
Estimated percent support is:
- 13.8% (± 1.26) – 3.6 points ahead of New Zealand First
- up 2.2 points since 5 July 2026
- up 2.2 points from the 2023 election (11.61%)
- significantly increasing at an estimated rate of 7.06 points per month.
New Zealand First
Estimated percent support is:
- 10.2% (± 0.86) – 1.2 points ahead of ACT
- down 0.8 points since 5 July 2026
- up 4.1 points from the 2023 election (6.09%)
- not significantly changing.
ACT
Estimated percent support is:
- 9% (± 0.85)
- up 0.7 points since 5 July 2026
- up 0.4 points from the 2023 election (8.64%)
- significantly increasing at an estimated rate of 3.32 points per month.
Opportunity
Estimated percent support is:
- 6.9% (± 1.16)
- up 2.1 points since 5 July 2026
- up 4.7 points from the 2023 election (2.22%)
- significantly increasing at an estimated rate of 11.24 points per month.
Te Pāti Māori
Estimated percent support is:
- 1.9% (± 0.39)
- down 0.3 points since 5 July 2026
- down 1.2 points from the 2023 election (3.08%)
- significantly decreasing at an estimated rate of 6.57 points per month.
Text alternative for Estimated percent support by political party
Text alternative for Percent support by political party over time
Seats in Parliament as of 5 October 2026
Estimated seats in Parliament are based on 50,000 simulations of opinion poll trends as of 5 October 2026.
National
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 35 with most simulations projecting between 31 and 39 seats
- down 13 seats from the 2023 election (48 seats).
Labour
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 34 with most simulations projecting between 30 and 39 seats
- unchanged from the 2023 election (34 seats).
The Greens
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 16 with most simulations projecting between 13 and 21 seats
- up 1 seat from the 2023 election (15 seats).
New Zealand First
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 12 with most simulations projecting between 10 and 15 seats
- up 4 seats from the 2023 election (8 seats).
ACT
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 11 with most simulations projecting between 8 and 14 seats
- unchanged from the 2023 election (11 seats).
Opportunity
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 7 with most simulations projecting between 0 and 12 seats
- up 7 seats from the 2023 election (0 seats).
Te Pāti Māori
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 2 with most simulations projecting between 1 and 4 seats
- down 4 seats from the 2023 election (6 seats).
In 27.9 percent of 30,000 simulations, National–ACT–New Zealand First collectively held a majority of seats. In 32.7 percent of simulations, Labour–The Greens–Opportunity collectively held a majority of seats.
Text alternative for Estimated seats in Parliament by political party
Based on these the estimated percent support for each party, parliament could look like the following:
Text alternative for Modelled seats in Parliament by coalition
Seat allocations assume that each party retains at least one electorate seat it won in the 2023 election, allowing it to remain represented in Parliament even if its party vote falls below 5 percent. Because seat estimates are reported separately for each party and then rounded to whole numbers, their totals may not sum exactly to 120.
Preferred Prime Minister as of 5 October 2026
Christopher Luxon
Estimated percent support is:
- 19.8% (± 1.6) – the highest of any party leader
- unchanged since 5 July 2026 (about three months ago)
- not significantly changing.
Chris Hipkins
Estimated percent support is:
- 19.3% (± 1.83) – 0.4 points behind Christopher Luxon
- down by 0.7 points since 5 July 2026
- not significantly changing.
Winston Peters
Estimated percent support is:
- 10.3% (± 1.43) – 3.25 points ahead of Chlöe Swarbrick
- down by 1.5 points since 5 July 2026
- not significantly changing.
Chlöe Swarbrick
Estimated percent support is:
- 7% (± 0.85) – 1.1 points ahead of David Seymour
- up by 0.1 points since 5 July 2026
- not significantly changing.
David Seymour
Estimated percent support is:
- 5.9% (± 0.61)
- up by 0.1 points since 5 July 2026
- not significantly changing.
Text alternative for Estimated percent support by political party leader
Text alternative for Percent support by political party leader over time
Preferred Prime Minister results were analysed across five of six polling organisations despite minor differences in question wording. Opinion polls published by The Post–Freshwater Strategy were excluded because they only allow respondents to choose between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon, inflating their percent support.
Government approval as of 5 October 2026
Estimated net government approval is -19 (± 4.2) and is significantly decreasing by 0.5 points per month.
Polling organisations
Opinion polling data is collected by seven polling organisations at different frequencies. Since 6 November 2023:
- the most recent poll was published by Taxpayers’ Union–Curia on 5 October 2026
- the next poll is estimated to be published by Talbot Mills before 10 October 2026
- the most frequent polling organisation is ****, who
publish polls with a median frequency of days
- the least frequent polling organisation is ****, who publish polls with a median frequency of days.
Polling organisations that conduct surveys more frequently can detect shifts in public opinion sooner than those that poll less often. This helps identify emerging trends, short-term fluctuations, and changes in voter sentiment between elections. Less frequent polling may miss these rapid changes, making trend estimates less responsive.
| Polling organisation | Most recent poll | Polls | Median frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taxpayers’ Union–Curia | 5 October 2026 | 35 | 30.0 days |
| 1 News–Verian | 5 October 2026 | 18 | 56.0 days |
| RNZ–Reid Research | 1 October 2026 | 8 | 64.0 days |
| Roy Morgan | 27 September 2026 | 35 | 28.0 days |
| The Post–Freshwater Strategy | 11 September 2026 | 7 | 103.5 days |
| Anacta | 10 September 2026 | 1 | NA days |
| Talbot Mills | 11 August 2026 | 21 | 33.0 days |
ACT
The estimated odds of someone saying they will vote for ACT when responding to a Roy Morgan or Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll are higher than that of someone saying they will vote for ACT when responding to a Talbot Mills poll (holding all other modelled factors constant). The estimated odds for other polling organisations were not significantly different to that of Talbot Mills.
Labour
The estimated odds of someone saying they will vote for Labour when responding to a 1 News–Verian, Taxpayers’ Union–Curia, or Roy Morgan poll are lower than that of someone saying they will vote for Labour when responding to a Talbot Mills poll (holding all other modelled factors constant). The estimated odds for other polling organisations were not significantly different to that of Talbot Mills.
National
The estimated odds of someone saying they will vote for National when responding to a 1 News–Verian poll are higher than that of someone saying they will vote for National when responding to a Talbot Mills poll (holding all other modelled factors constant). The estimated odds for other polling organisations were not significantly different to that of Talbot Mills.
New Zealand First
The estimated odds of someone saying they will vote for New Zealand First when responding to a 1 News–Verian poll are lower than that of someone saying they will vote for New Zealand First when responding to a Talbot Mills poll (holding all other modelled factors constant). The estimated odds for other polling organisations were not significantly different to that of Talbot Mills.
Opportunity
The estimated odds of someone saying they will vote for Opportunity when responding to a Roy Morgan poll are higher than that of someone saying they will vote for Opportunity when responding to a Talbot Mills poll (holding all other modelled factors constant). The estimated odds for other polling organisations were not significantly different to that of Talbot Mills.
Te Pāti Māori
The estimated odds of someone saying they will vote for Te Pāti Māori when responding to a 1 News–Verian or The Post–Freshwater Strategy poll are lower than that of someone saying they will vote for Te Pāti Māori when responding to a Talbot Mills poll (holding all other modelled factors constant). The estimated odds for other polling organisations were not significantly different to that of Talbot Mills.
The Greens
The estimated odds of someone saying they will vote for The Greens when responding to a Roy Morgan poll are higher than that of someone saying they will vote for The Greens when responding to a Talbot Mills poll (holding all other modelled factors constant). The estimated odds for other polling organisations were not significantly different to that of Talbot Mills.
Trend methodology
Generalised additive models (GAMs) were used to estimate underlying trends in party percent support over time. GAMs allow trends to change smoothly over time rather than assuming a straight-line increase or decrease. Models were fitted using a beta distribution, which is appropriate for percentages because it constrains estimates to the 0–100% range. Smooth functions of time were specified using thin plate regression splines, with the basis dimension (k) set to 0.8 times the number of polls to allow sufficient flexibility while reducing the risk of overfitting. Smoothing parameters were estimated using restricted maximum likelihood (REML).
Trend likelihoods are reported as significant when the probability of an increasing or decreasing trend is above 95 percent and not significant when no trend direction can be determined or the probability is 95 percent or less.
Interactive dashboard
Opinion polls and trends at 5 October 2026 provides a snapshot of the data behind this report.
Text alternatives
Text alternative for Estimated percent support by political party
A bar chart shows the estimated percent support by political party. Each bar is coloured to indicate political party: blue (National), red (Labour), green (The Greens), black (New Zealand First), magenta (ACT), teal (Opportunity), and maroon (Te Pāti Māori). From left to right, estimated percent support is 28.9% for National, 28.1% for Labour, 13.8% for The Greens, 10.2% for New Zealand First, 9% for ACT, 6.9% for Opportunity, and 1.9% for Te Pāti Māori. Error bars show 95% credible intervals. Estimated percent support is calculated from opinion poll data using generalised additive models between 6 November 2023 and 5 October 2026.
Text alternative for Percent support by political party over time
A scatter plot with trend lines show percent support by political party based on opinion polls for the 2026 New Zealand General Election between 6 November 2023 and 5 October 2026. Points represent percent support from opinion polls and lines represent estimated percent support calculated using generalised additive models. Each point and line is coloured to indicate political party: blue (National), red (Labour), green (The Greens), black (New Zealand First), magenta (ACT), teal (Opportunity), and maroon (Te Pāti Māori). Currently, estimated percent support is significantly decreasing for National, significantly decreasing for Labour, significantly increasing for The Greens, not significantly changing for New Zealand First, significantly increasing for ACT, significantly increasing for Opportunity, and significantly decreasing for Te Pāti Māori.
Text alternative for Estimated seats in Parliament by political party
A bar chart shows the estimated number of seats in Parliament by political party. Each bar is coloured to indicate political party: blue (National), red (Labour), green (The Greens), black (New Zealand First), magenta (ACT), teal (Opportunity), and maroon (Te Pāti Māori). From left to right, estimated seats are 35 for National, 34 for Labour, 16 for The Greens, 12 for New Zealand First, 11 for ACT, 7 for Opportunity, and 2 for Te Pāti Māori. Error bars show 95% credible intervals. Estimated seats are based on simulations of estimated percent support calculated from opinion poll data using generalised additive models between 6 November 2023 and 5 October 2026.
Text alternative for Modelled seats in Parliament by coalition
An election apportionment diagram shows the estimated number of seats in Parliament by political party. Each circle is coloured to indicate political party: blue (National), red (Labour), green (The Greens), black (New Zealand First), magenta (ACT), teal (Opportunity), and maroon (Te Pāti Māori). Clockwise from bottom left to bottom right, estimated seats are 2 for Te Pāti Māori, 16 for The Greens, 34 for Labour, 35 for National, 12 for New Zealand First, 11 for ACT, and 7 for Opportunity. Estimated seats are based on estimated percent support calculated from opinion poll data using generalised additive models between 6 November 2023 and 5 October 2026.
Text alternative for Estimated percent support by political party leader
A bar chart shows the estimated percent support by political party leader. Each bar is coloured to indicate leader: blue (Christopher Luxon), red (Chris Hipkins), black (Winston Peters), green (Chlöe Swarbrick), and magenta (David Seymour). From left to right, estimated percent support is 19.8% for Christopher Luxon, 19.3% for Chris Hipkins, 10.3% for Winston Peters, 7% for Chlöe Swarbrick, and 5.9% for David Seymour. Error bars show 95% credible intervals. Estimated percent support is calculated from opinion poll data using generalised additive models between 6 November 2023 and 5 October 2026.
Text alternative for Percent support by political party leader over time
A scatter plot with trend lines show percent support by political party leader based on opinion polls for the 2026 New Zealand General Election between 6 November 2023 and 5 October 2026. Points represent percent support from opinion polls and lines represent estimated percent support calculated using generalised additive models. Each point and line is coloured to indicate political party: blue (Christopher Luxon), red (Chris Hipkins), black (Winston Peters), green (Chlöe Swarbrick), and magenta (David Seymour).
Disclaimer
This report is based on opinion polls and modelled estimates as of 5 October 2026. Opinion polls are subject to sampling error, methodological differences, and changes in public sentiment over time. Late campaign effects, voter turnout, and electorate-level dynamics are not explicitly modelled. Estimates of percent support, seats in Parliament, and preferred Prime Minister are not predictions of the actual election outcome and may differ from the results on 7 November 2026. Readers should interpret these figures as indicative trends rather than definitive forecasts.
The author is independent and does not endorse or favour any political party or candidate. The analysis is based solely on publicly available opinion poll data as of 5 October 2026 and is intended for informational purposes only.
Want to know more about me, including ways we can collaborate? Get in touch at lindsay.kiwi.