Highlights

  • The cost of purchasing the same grocery basket increased by approximately $419.79 per household between April 2025 and July 2026, an increase of 4.6%.

  • The three largest contributors to higher grocery costs were Other Food Products ($123, 29.2%), Meat ($111, 26.3%), and Fruit ($68, 16.1%). Together, they accounted for 71.7% of the total increase.

  • Households in the lowest income quintile faced an additional $266 in annual grocery costs, equivalent to approximately 2.29% of household income.

  • Households in the highest income quintile experienced the largest dollar increase in grocery spending, averaging approximately $595 since April 2025.

  • The largest increases in grocery costs were observed in Alberta ($626), Saskatchewan ($559), and Newfoundland and Labrador ($532).

  • Grocery price increases since April 2025 placed the greatest affordability pressure on lower-income households, where even modest increases in grocery spending represented a relatively large share of household income.

  • Although grocery costs increased between 2021 and 2023 and again between 2023 and April 2025, the additional cost of purchasing the same grocery basket increased more rapidly between April 2025 and July 2026.

1 Introduction

Food affordability remains a key concern for Canadian households. This policy brief provide estimates of how much more Canadians would need to spend to purchase the same grocery basket in July 2026 compared with April 2025.

Using expenditure data from the 2023 Survey of Household Spending (SHS) and province-specific Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the analysis estimates additional grocery costs since April 2025 and examines how those costs vary across grocery categories, income groups, and provinces.

2 National Results

2.1 Cost of Purchasing the Same Grocery Basket

Canadian households faced higher grocery costs in July 2026 than in April 2025. The cost of purchasing the same grocery basket increased from approximately $9,076.20 in April 2025 to $9,495.99 in July 2026, an increase of $419.79 or 4.6 percent.

2.2 Sources of Additional Grocery Costs Since April 2025

Meat and Other Food Products and Non-Alcoholic Beverages accounted for the largest share of additional grocery costs since April 2025.

2.3 What Is Driving Higher Costs for Other Food Products and Non-Alcoholic Beverages?

3 Income Quintile Results

National averages mask important differences across the income distribution.

3.1 Additional Grocery Costs and Affordability Burden Since April 2025

Higher-income households experienced larger dollar increases because they purchased larger grocery baskets. However, lower-income households experienced substantially larger affordability burdens relative to income.

4 Provincial Results

National averages mask important regional differences in grocery prices, spending patterns, and household incomes.

4.1 Additional Grocery Costs and Affordability Burden Since April 2025

Additional grocery costs and affordability burdens varied considerably across provinces, reflecting differences in grocery price growth, spending patterns, and household incomes.

5 Conclusion

Canadian households faced higher grocery costs in July 2026 than in April 2025. Purchasing the same grocery basket required approximately $419.79 more per household, equivalent to 4.6 percent.

The increase in grocery costs was concentrated in a small number of categories, particularly Meat and Other Food Products and Non-Alcoholic Beverages. Although higher-income households experienced larger dollar increases, the largest affordability impacts were concentrated among lower-income households. Grocery cost increases and affordability burdens also varied across provinces, highlighting important regional differences in how recent grocery inflation has affected Canadian households.

Appendix A. Data and Methodology

Data: Survey of Household Spending and Grocery Basket

This analysis uses the 2023 Survey of Household Spending (SHS) Public Use Microdata File, Statistics Canada’s primary source of information on household spending.

A representative grocery basket was constructed using eight major categories of food purchased from stores:

  • Bakery products
  • Cereal grains and cereal products
  • Fruit, fruit preparations and nuts
  • Vegetables and vegetable preparations
  • Dairy products and eggs
  • Meat
  • Fish and seafood
  • Non-alcoholic beverages and other food products

These categories account for approximately:

Coverage of the SHS Food Basket
Measure Percent
Coverage of Total Food Expenditure 71.9
Coverage of Food Purchased From Stores 99.6

Together, these categories account for approximately 99.6 percent of expenditures on food purchased from stores and 71.9 percent of total household food expenditures. The basket therefore provides broad coverage of grocery spending by Canadian households.

Consumer Price Index

Each grocery category was matched to a corresponding food-component Consumer Price Index (CPI) series from Statistics Canada.

These CPI series were used to estimate how much more households would need to spend to purchase the same grocery basket in July 2026 than in April 2025.

SHS-CPI Concordance
SHS_Category CPI_Category
Bakery products Bakery products
Cereal grains and cereal products Cereal products (excluding baby food)
Fruit, fruit preparations and nuts Fruit, fruit preparations and nuts
Vegetables and vegetable preparations Vegetables and vegetable preparations
Dairy products and eggs Dairy products and eggs
Meat Meat
Fish and seafood Fish, seafood and other marine products
Other food products and beverages Other food products and non-alcoholic beverages

Methodology

This analysis uses a fixed-basket approach similar to that used in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Expenditure patterns observed in the 2023 Survey of Household Spending (SHS) are treated as a fixed grocery basket and repriced using food-component CPI data.

For household \(h\), annual expenditures on the 2023 grocery basket are defined as:

\[ G_{h,2023} = \sum_j E_{hj} \]

where \(E_{hj}\) denotes household expenditure on grocery category \(j\).

To account for regional differences in grocery price growth, each household is matched to province-specific CPI series based on its province of residence. Category-specific price adjustment factors are calculated as:

\[ A_{jpt} = \frac{CPI_{jpt}} {\overline{CPI}_{jp,2023}} \]

where:

  • \(CPI_{jpt}\) is the CPI level for grocery category \(j\), province \(p\), and period \(t\);
  • \(\overline{CPI}_{jp,2023}\) is the average 2023 CPI level for grocery category \(j\) in province \(p\);
  • \(t \in \{\text{April 2025}, \text{July 2026}\}\).

The estimated cost of purchasing the same grocery basket in period \(t\) is:

\[ G_{ht} = \sum_j E_{hj} A_{jpt} \]

The primary comparison in this report is between April 2025 and July 2026. The additional annual grocery cost is measured as:

\[ \Delta G_h = G_{h,\text{Jun2026}} - G_{h,\text{Apr2025}} \]

This measure represents the additional amount households would need to spend to purchase the same groceries in July 2026 compared with April 2025.

National estimates are calculated as weighted averages across households using SHS survey weights.

To assess affordability impacts, the grocery cost burden is measured as:

\[ Burden_h = 100 \times \frac{ G_{h,\text{Jun2026}} - G_{h,\text{Apr2025}} } {Income_h} \]

This measure represents the additional grocery cost since April 2025 as a share of household income.

Food Basket dollar value and share

Note: Estimates based on the SHS 2023 Public Use Microdata File closely replicate Statistics Canada’s published household expenditure estimates. Differences were generally less than 1%.”, Source: Statistics Canada Table 11-10-0125-01: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1110012501

Food Basket Expenditures and Dollar Changes by Category
Category StatCan_2021 SHS_2023 Apr_2025 Jun_2026 Change_21_23 Change_23_25 Change_25_26
Other Food Products 1923 2154 2307 2430 231 153 123
Meat 1517 1546 1654 1764 29 108 111
Fruit 1030 1074 1129 1196 44 55 68
Dairy and Eggs 1161 1204 1254 1288 43 50 34
Vegetables 967 1031 1067 1099 64 35 32
Bakery Products 698 861 867 899 163 6 32
Fish and Seafood 305 271 273 288 -34 2 15
Cereal Products 464 524 526 531 60 2 5
Cost of Purchasing the Food Basket Over Time
Period Basket_Cost Dollar_Change Percent_Change
2021 Statistics Canada 8065 NA NA
2023 SHS Estimate 8665 600 7
April 2025 9076 411 5
July 2026 9496 420 5