Initial Visualizations and Findings (Internal)

Some initial takeaways

1. The week with the most calls received in helpline history was the week of June 30-July 4, the week after the Supreme Court decision on TPS for Haiti.
2. Mexico, Brazil, Guatemala, El Salvador, Colombia, and Ecuador have significantly higher rates of detention at the 99% confidence level. See predicted probabilities below.
3. Brazil and Ecuador have significantly higher rates of court hearings at the 99% confidence level. See predicted probabilities below.

# A tibble: 10 × 3
   Country                n   rate
   <fct>              <int>  <dbl>
 1 Mexico                20 0.3   
 2 Brazil               111 0.234 
 3 Guatemala             43 0.233 
 4 El Salvador           45 0.2   
 5 Colombia              65 0.169 
 6 Ecuador               43 0.163 
 7 Honduras              42 0.119 
 8 Dominican Republic    86 0.0930
 9 Haiti                432 0.0370
10 Venezuela             38 0     

    Pearson's Chi-squared test

data:  table(df_detention_model$Country, df_detention_model$detention)
X-squared = 69.32, df = 9, p-value = 2.07e-11

Call:
glm(formula = detention ~ Country, family = binomial, data = df_detention_model)

Coefficients:
                          Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept)                -3.2581     0.2548 -12.789  < 2e-16 ***
CountryBrazil               2.0735     0.3393   6.111 9.90e-10 ***
CountryDominican Republic   0.9808     0.4502   2.178 0.029375 *  
CountryColombia             1.6670     0.4175   3.993 6.54e-05 ***
CountryEl Salvador          1.8718     0.4514   4.146 3.38e-05 ***
CountryEcuador              1.6205     0.4853   3.339 0.000841 ***
CountryGuatemala            2.0642     0.4418   4.672 2.98e-06 ***
CountryHonduras             1.2566     0.5403   2.326 0.020032 *  
CountryVenezuela          -14.3080   641.7772  -0.022 0.982213    
CountryMexico               2.4108     0.5505   4.380 1.19e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

    Null deviance: 625.22  on 924  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 555.03  on 915  degrees of freedom
AIC: 575.03

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 16

# A tibble: 10 × 3
   Country                n   rate
   <fct>              <int>  <dbl>
 1 Ecuador               43 0.419 
 2 Honduras              42 0.286 
 3 Colombia              65 0.215 
 4 Brazil               111 0.198 
 5 Dominican Republic    86 0.198 
 6 Haiti                432 0.176 
 7 Guatemala             43 0.163 
 8 Venezuela             38 0.158 
 9 El Salvador           45 0.0889
10 Mexico                20 0.05  

    Pearson's Chi-squared test

data:  table(df_court_model$Country, df_court_model$court_hearing)
X-squared = 23.868, df = 9, p-value = 0.004514

Call:
glm(formula = court_hearing ~ Country, family = binomial, data = df_court_model)

Coefficients:
                          Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept)               -1.54420    0.12636 -12.221  < 2e-16 ***
CountryBrazil              0.14660    0.26955   0.544 0.586523    
CountryDominican Republic  0.14330    0.29880   0.480 0.631516    
CountryColombia            0.25143    0.32711   0.769 0.442113    
CountryEl Salvador        -0.78308    0.53885  -1.453 0.146155    
CountryEcuador             1.21569    0.33395   3.640 0.000272 ***
CountryGuatemala          -0.09341    0.43197  -0.216 0.828798    
CountryHonduras            0.62791    0.36419   1.724 0.084686 .  
CountryVenezuela          -0.12978    0.46248  -0.281 0.779003    
CountryMexico             -1.40024    1.03368  -1.355 0.175538    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

    Null deviance: 903.13  on 924  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 880.69  on 915  degrees of freedom
AIC: 900.69

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5