| Table 1: Summary Statistics | |||||
| Mean | Std. Dev. | Min | Max | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panel A: Applicant Ethnicity | |||||
| Hispanic | 44.67 | 49.72 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 40,533 |
| Asian | 10.28 | 30.37 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 40,533 |
| Black | 11.94 | 32.43 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 40,533 |
| White | 30.29 | 45.95 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 40,533 |
| Other | 2.81 | 16.53 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 40,533 |
| Panel B: Application Volume | |||||
| Applications per Day | 12.45 | 39.12 | 1.00 | 2,195.00 | 3,255 |
| Applications per Month | 371.86 | 241.87 | 75.00 | 2,195.00 | 109 |
| Notes: Ethnicity variables are indicator variables. Means are reported in percentages. Standard deviations are also reported in percentage points. Application counts are aggregated by day and month. | |||||
Police Applicant Analysis
Executive Summary
This analysis examines how the pool of police applicants changed after COVID-19 across three police departments: Santa Ana, San Bernardino, and Sacramento. The departments provided their data relating to police recruit positions over a specific time period. The datasets were analyzed based on various factors, including the date, year, month, time, department, sex, ethnicity, and ZIP code. Overall, there is slight evidence suggesting that during the pandemic, the number of applicants initially declined but later returned to normal levels or even increased.
According to Figure 1, the number of Asian applicants increased at the beginning of the pandemic but subsequently decreased. The trend among Black applicants mirrored that of Asian applicants, showing an initial increase followed by a decrease. In contrast, Hispanic applicants consistently represented a higher number compared to other ethnicities. During the pre-pandemic period, their numbers were stable, but they saw a significant increase towards the end of the pandemic, followed by a decrease. For White applicants, the numbers have been declining since 2018.
Figure 2 illustrates the total number of applicants by ethnicity, broken down by department. In Sacramento, the highest number of applicants was White, totaling around 7,400, while the lowest was Asian, with about 2,400 applicants. In the Santa Ana police department, Hispanic applicants led with approximately 7,900, while Black applicants were the lowest at around 1,000. For the San Bernardino police department, Hispanic applicants also represented the highest number, while Black applicants were again the lowest.
Figure 3, it shows the monthly share of police department applicants by ethnicity within each department. Shares are computed as the proportion of applicants from each ethnic group relative to the total number of applicants. It gives similar information to Figure 2.
In terms of the summary statistics table, panel A shows the mean, standard deviation, minimum, maximum, and the total number of applicants. For instance, the mean of the Hispanic group is 44.67, asian group is 10.28, the black group is 11.94, the white group is 30.29, and the others are 2.81. For standard deviation, Hispanic is 49.72, asian is 30.37, black is 32.43, white is 45.95, and the others are 16.53. For the panel B part, it demonstrates the information about the application volume, which is divided into two parts: applications per day and applications per month. The police departments received about 12.45 applications per day, and 371.86 applications per month.
Overall, this analysis shows that the police applicant pool decreased after COVID-19 for most of the applicants, except for the Hispanic group of applicants.
Data
The main dataset that is used in this analysis is the police applications submitted for the job of police recruit to each department, including Sacramento, San Bernardino, and Santa Ana. The analysis is based on these six categories of information:
date applied
year and month applied
time applied
sex
ethnicity
zipcode
Based on these categories, I analyzed the applicants’ pool change after COVID-19. Table 1 helps to summarize the characteristics of the applicant pool and application volume over time. Hispanic applicants make up the largest share of the sample (44.67 percent), followed by White applicants (30.29 percent), while Black and Asian applicants each account for roughly 10–12 percent. Applicants identifying as “Other” represent a small fraction of the pool. Because these variables are indicators, the reported standard deviations reflect the underlying binary nature of the data rather than meaningful dispersion across individuals. In terms of application volume, the average is 12.45 applications per day and 371.86 per month, though there is considerable variation over time. The wide range in daily and monthly counts suggests that applications tend to arrive in bursts rather than at a steady rate.
Findings/ Results and Methods
Based on the findings (Figure 1), we can see that asian applicants were decreasing over the years until COVID-19, and after the pandemic, they also decreased until early 2023, when they started increasing a bit. Black applicants were stable up until 2019, the number of applicants decreased drastically, and got back to stable until the pandemic. After the pandemic, it decreased until 2024. From 2024, it increased by a little bit, yet started declining from there as well. For Hispanic applicants, it was stable until COVID-19, and at the end of the pandemic, it started increasing. However, it got back to stable again until the end of 2023, when it started increasing drastically.
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Meanwhile, the number of white applicants continued to decline over the years. At the beginning of 2016, the number of applicants was about 200, whereas at the end of 2024, it decreased by 80 percent. For other ethnic groups, it stayed stable throughout the years. Another result that can be demonstrated through Figure 1, the number of female applicants is always less than the number of male applicants.
Figure 2 shows the different ethnic groups that applied for the police departments in Sacramento, San Bernardino, and Santa Ana. For the Sacramento Police Department, around 7400 white people, 6000 Hispanic people, 3000 black people, 2400 asian people, and around 500 people from other ethnic groups applied. On the other hand, compared to the Sacramento and Santa Ana police departments, the San Bernardino police department had a very few amount of applicants in general, which includes around 400 Hispanic applicants, and 50 asian applicants. For the Santa Ana police department, Hispanic applicants had the highest number of applicants, which includes 8500 people, 2800 white applicants, around 800 black applicants, 950 asian applicants, and other ethnic groups, which is about 200 applicants.
Lastly, Figure 3, it shows the number of applicants by ethnicity within each department. The percentages are computed as the proportion of each ethnic group relative to the total number of applicants
Conclusion
Overall, the results suggest that COVID-19 had some impact on the police applicant pool, but the effects were not the same across all groups. Applications dropped at the beginning of the pandemic, but over time they mostly recovered and in some cases even increased. However, these trends differed by ethnicity. Hispanic applicants continued to make up the largest share and showed an increase toward the later period, while Asian and Black applicants experienced a short increase early on followed by a decline. White applicants, on the other hand, had been declining even before the pandemic and continued to do so afterward.
Looking across departments, the general patterns are fairly similar, although the total number of applicants varies by location. The figures and summary statistics suggest that changes in application volume were somewhat uneven and may reflect short-term disruptions rather than a major long-term shift. Overall, while the pandemic did affect application trends, the changes seem moderate and differ depending on the group being considered.