From Steph Curry to the Lakers: The NBA Shot Chart Shift
SAL 607 - Exercises 13 & 14
DJ Barry
Introduction
Shot charts make the NBA’s spacing change pretty easy to see. Curry shows it at the player level. The Lakers comparison shows it at the team level.
For Curry, it was never just about taking more threes. It was deeper threes, tougher threes, and more spots on the floor. For the Lakers, the shift is more about where the league went: less mid-range, more arc.
Exercise 13: Stephen Curry Shot Chart Evolution
Curry Shot Chart Summary
| Curry’s Shot Chart Evolution | |||
| From balanced guard scoring to extreme three-point spacing. | |||
| Stage | Location | Efficiency | Main Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early career | More balanced. Threes, rim attempts, and some mid-range all show up. | The shooting was already elite. | He was already a great shooter, just not the full Curry version yet. |
| Peak expansion | The chart shifts hard behind the three-point line. | The volume jumps without the percentages falling apart. | This is where the chart starts looking like modern Curry. |
| Later prime | The arc stays central, especially above the break. | The percentages dip from the 2015-16 peak, but the volume still bends the floor. | The shot profile stays aggressive even after the league adjusts. |
| Late-career profile | The profile is still built around high-volume perimeter shooting. | The range and volume still stretch defenses. | The identity holds up over time. |
| Source: StatMuse shot charts. | |||
Key Curry Seasons
| Key Curry Seasons | |||||
| The shot difficulty rises, but the efficiency mostly holds. | |||||
| Season | Stage | FG% | 3P% | 3PA/G | Main Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | Early career | 46.2% | 43.7% | 4.8 | Still balanced, but the shooting base is obvious. |
| 2015-16 | Peak explosion | 50.4% | 45.4% | 11.2 | The three-point line becomes the center of the profile. |
| 2021-22 | Later prime | 43.7% | 38.0% | 11.7 | The arc remains the main feature of the chart. |
| 2025-26 | Late-career profile | 46.8% | 39.3% | 11.3 | The shot diet is still built around high-volume perimeter shooting. |
| Source: StatMuse season shot charts and season shooting lines. | |||||
Early Career to Peak Curry
Early Curry was already dangerous, but the chart was not wild yet. He had threes, rim attempts, and some mid-range mixed in. The shooting was obvious. The full Curry profile just had not taken over.
By 2015-16, the chart looks different. More shots are coming from behind the line, especially above the break. The part that matters is the efficiency: 50.4% overall, 45.4% from three, and 11.2 threes per game.
Later Career
The later charts still look like Curry. The arc is the main feature, the attempts are spread around the perimeter, and the mid-range is no longer central.
The percentages are not always at the 2015-16 peak, but the shot diet still works because of the pressure it puts on the defense. In 2021-22, Curry took 11.7 threes per game. In 2025-26, he still took 11.3 and made 39.3%.
Curry Summary
Curry’s chart moves from balanced to extreme. Early on, he was already a great shooter. Over time, the three-point line became the main feature of his scoring profile.
The point is not just that he took more threes. He took harder ones, from more places, and stayed efficient enough to make the math work. Curry did not just ride the three-point premium. He helped build the league around it.
Exercise 14: Lakers Shot Chart Comparison
2012 Lakers vs. 2022 Lakers
This section compares the two assigned Lakers shot charts from StatMuse. StatMuse labels them as 2012 and 2022, but the seasons shown are the 2011-12 Lakers and the 2021-22 Lakers.
The main change is simple. The 2011-12 Lakers were more mid-range heavy. The 2021-22 Lakers pushed far more of their offense out to the three-point line.
Lakers Shot Chart Summary
| Lakers Shot Chart Comparison | |||
| The 2021-22 team looks more modern, but efficiency still matters. | |||
| Category | 2011-12 Lakers | 2021-22 Lakers | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shot locations | More traditional shot chart with more activity inside the arc. | More modern spacing with more shots around the three-point line. | The floor gets wider. |
| Three-point volume | 1,113 total three-point attempts and 16.9 per game. | 2,826 total three-point attempts and 34.5 per game. | The three-point volume more than doubles. |
| Mid-range role | Still a major part of the offense. | Still present, but less central. | The offense moves away from the middle of the floor. |
| Efficiency | 45.7% overall and 32.5% from three. | 46.9% overall and 34.7% from three. | The 2021-22 team shot better, but the chart was not automatically great. |
| Main point | This looks like an early-2010s offense. | This looks much closer to the modern NBA. | The NBA changed the geometry of offense. |
| Source: StatMuse assigned Lakers shot chart pages. | |||
Key Lakers Numbers
| Key Lakers Numbers | ||||||
| The biggest jump is three-point volume. | ||||||
| StatMuse Label | Actual Season | FG% | 3P% | 3PA | 3PA/G | Shot Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 Lakers | 2011-12 | 45.7% | 32.5% | 1,113 | 16.9 | More traditional, with heavier mid-range usage. |
| 2022 Lakers | 2021-22 | 46.9% | 34.7% | 2,826 | 34.5 | More modern, with greater three-point spacing. |
| Source: StatMuse assigned Lakers shot chart pages. | ||||||
2011-12 Lakers: More Mid-Range, Less Spacing
The 2011-12 Lakers’ chart looks more traditional. There is more activity inside the arc, especially in the mid-range. That does not make it wrong. It just reflects the way NBA offenses looked at the time.
The spacing was tighter, and the three-point line was not used as aggressively. The Lakers fit that style, shooting 45.7% overall and 32.5% from three.
2021-22 Lakers: More Perimeter-Oriented
The 2021-22 Lakers’ chart looks more modern. The shots are pushed farther out, with more attention around the three-point line. The court is more spread, and the offense is clearly trying to create more value from the perimeter.
The volume change is the biggest difference. The 2021-22 Lakers took 2,826 threes, more than double the 2011-12 team’s total. They also shot better from three, 34.7% compared with 32.5%.
Lakers Summary
The Lakers comparison shows how much NBA shot selection changed in ten years. The 2011-12 Lakers were more traditional, with more mid-range shots and less extreme spacing. The 2021-22 Lakers looked more modern, with far more shots coming from the three-point line.
The lesson is not that every modern chart is automatically better. The 2021-22 Lakers had the newer shot profile, but efficiency still mattered. The bigger point is that the floor got wider, the arc became more important, and the middle of the court became less central.