Introduction

This report analyzes Google search interest trends for three leading AI chatbot products — ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude — over the past five years in the United States. Using Google Trends data collected via the gtrendsR package, I examine comparative search popularity, identify peak interest periods, and hypothesize the factors driving those peaks. Google Trends measures relative search interest on a 0–100 scale, where 100 represents the peak search volume for a given term in the selected time frame (Google, 2024).

Setup

install.packages("gtrendsR")
library(gtrendsR)
library(ggplot2)
library(dplyr)
library(lubridate)

Data Collection

Sys.sleep(2)
t1 <- gtrends("ChatGPT", geo = "US", time = "today+5-y")
Sys.sleep(5)
t2 <- gtrends("Gemini AI", geo = "US", time = "today+5-y")
Sys.sleep(5)
t3 <- gtrends("Claude AI", geo = "US", time = "today+5-y")

t1$interest_over_time$hits <- as.character(t1$interest_over_time$hits)
t2$interest_over_time$hits <- as.character(t2$interest_over_time$hits)
t3$interest_over_time$hits <- as.character(t3$interest_over_time$hits)

trend_df <- bind_rows(t1$interest_over_time, t2$interest_over_time, t3$interest_over_time)

trend_df$hits <- as.numeric(ifelse(trend_df$hits == "<1", "0", trend_df$hits))

head(trend_df)

Comparative Trend Lines

The chart below shows weekly Google search interest for each brand over the five-year period.

ggplot(trend_df, aes(x = date, y = hits, color = keyword)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 0.8, alpha = 0.85) +
  labs(
    title = "Google Search Interest: ChatGPT vs Gemini AI vs Claude AI (US, 5 Years)",
    x = "Date",
    y = "Search Interest (0–100)",
    color = "Brand"
  ) +
  theme_minimal(base_size = 12) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom")

Peak Interest Analysis

peaks <- trend_df %>%
  group_by(keyword) %>%
  slice_max(hits, n = 1) %>%
  select(keyword, date, hits)

peaks
## # A tibble: 4 × 3
## # Groups:   keyword [3]
##   keyword   date                 hits
##   <chr>     <dttm>              <dbl>
## 1 ChatGPT   2025-09-14 00:00:00   100
## 2 ChatGPT   2025-11-09 00:00:00   100
## 3 Claude AI 2026-03-01 00:00:00   100
## 4 Gemini AI 2025-09-14 00:00:00   100
ggplot(peaks, aes(x = reorder(keyword, -hits), y = hits, fill = keyword)) +
  geom_col(show.legend = FALSE, width = 0.6) +
  geom_text(aes(label = paste0("Peak: ", hits)), vjust = -0.5, size = 3.5) +
  labs(
    title = "Peak Search Interest by Brand",
    x = "Brand",
    y = "Peak Search Interest (0–100)"
  ) +
  theme_minimal(base_size = 12)

Findings and Hypotheses

trend_df %>%
  group_by(keyword) %>%
  summarize(avg_interest = round(mean(hits, na.rm = TRUE), 1)) %>%
  arrange(desc(avg_interest))
## # A tibble: 3 × 2
##   keyword   avg_interest
##   <chr>            <dbl>
## 1 ChatGPT           32.2
## 2 Gemini AI         14.5
## 3 Claude AI          9.5

ChatGPT dominated the early market as the first mass-market AI chatbot, launching in late 2022 and reaching peak search interest around mid-2025. However, starting in late 2025 into 2026, Claude experienced a notable surge in search interest coinciding with controversies over OpenAI’s Department of Defense contracts — a decision that drove users concerned about AI ethics toward alternatives like Claude and Anthropic’s more cautious approach to deployment. The shift reflects growing awareness of Claude’s advanced capabilities, particularly in coding and reasoning tasks, as well as broader public concern about how leading AI companies navigate sensitive partnerships and policy decisions.

Conclusion

The Google Trends data reflects a rapidly shifting AI chatbot landscape — one where early dominance does not guarantee long-term mindshare. ChatGPT defined the category and captured overwhelming public attention at launch, but by 2025 and into 2026, growing controversies surrounding OpenAI’s government contracts and ethical concerns around AI deployment began to erode its search dominance. As users sought alternatives, Claude and Gemini began closing the gap, suggesting that in the AI space, trust and values may matter just as much as who got there first.

References

Google. (2024). Google Trends Help: How data is adjusted. https://support.google.com/trends/answer/4365533

Hu, K. (2023, February 2). ChatGPT sets record for fastest-growing user base. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/

Massicotte, P., & Eddelbuettel, D. (2023). gtrendsR: Perform and display Google Trends queries. R package version 1.5.1. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=gtrendsR

R Core Team. (2024). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://www.R-project.org/