Balaji Jayakumar
RMIT University | Data Storytelling with Open Data
Owning a home has often been treated as a normal step in Australian adult life: study, work, save, buy a place, and build security. But for many younger Australians, that pathway now feels much less certain.
This story uses Australian Bureau of Statistics housing and income
data to examine how the dream of home ownership has changed. The first
chart begins with the broad shift: property prices have not only
increased, they have increased unevenly across Australian cities.
For many Australians, owning a home has long been seen as a major life milestone. However, the housing market has changed dramatically over the past two decades. Looking at the chart above, one trend stands out immediately: housing prices have risen across all major cities, but not at the same pace.
Sydney experienced the most significant growth, with its residential property price index increasing from around 85 in 2003 to more than 215 by 2021. Melbourne followed a similar pattern, while Brisbane recorded steady but less dramatic growth. In contrast, Perth’s housing market followed a different path, highlighting how housing conditions vary across the country.
What makes this trend important is not simply that prices increased. The gap between cities widened over time, particularly after 2013. By 2021, Sydney had moved far ahead of the national average, suggesting that where a person lives increasingly influences their ability to enter the property market.
This raises an important question: if housing prices have risen so rapidly, have Australian incomes increased at the same rate? The next section explores whether household earnings have kept pace with the growth in property values.
If you had asked an Australian family in 2007 whether owning a
home was achievable, many would probably have said yes.
The path seemed familiar. Work hard, save consistently, build a deposit, and eventually step into the property market.
The chart above shows how that path slowly began to change.
In 2007–08, the average Australian household earned approximately $2,123 per week. By 2019–20, that figure had increased to around $2,329 per week. On paper, this sounds like progress. Australians were earning more than they had a decade earlier.
Yet something else was happening at the same time.
For the first few years, housing prices and household income moved in a broadly similar direction. Then the gap began to widen. By around 2013, the two trends started telling different stories. Income growth continued at a steady pace, but housing prices accelerated much more rapidly. What had once been a manageable distance slowly became a growing divide.
The previous chart revealed just how dramatic this growth was in Australia’s largest cities. Sydney’s residential property price index climbed from approximately 85 in 2003 to more than 215 by 2021. Melbourne increased from around 61 to above 180 during the same period. These gains far exceeded the growth seen in household earnings.
This is where the affordability crisis takes shape.
The issue was never that Australians stopped earning more money. The data show that incomes did increase. The problem was that housing prices moved faster. Every year, homes became a little more expensive relative to earnings. Every year, deposits became harder to save. Every year, first-home buyers found themselves chasing a market that seemed to be pulling further away.
For existing homeowners, rising property values often felt like success. For those standing outside the market, the same trend created a different reality. The goalposts were moving.
Not overnight. Not because of a single event. But gradually, year after year, until the gap between income growth and housing prices became too large to ignore.
The next question is where Australians felt this pressure most directly. If earnings were struggling to keep pace with property values, how much of a household’s income was being consumed simply by the cost of housing?
Numbers often hide human stories. Behind every percentage in the chart above is a young Australian trying to build a future.
The data show that Australians aged 15–24 spend 23.6% of their household income on housing costs, the highest of any age group. Even those aged 25–34 spend 18.6%, meaning that nearly one fifth of household income is devoted to keeping a roof overhead. In comparison, Australians aged 65–74 spend only 5.7%, while those aged 75 and over spend just 5.5%.
This gap is more than a statistical difference. It reflects two very different experiences of the Australian housing market.
For many older Australians, home ownership became possible during a period when housing prices were lower relative to income. Over time, mortgages were reduced or fully paid off, allowing housing costs to consume only a small share of household earnings. Younger Australians face a very different reality. They are entering the market after decades of rapid property price growth, while income growth has been comparatively modest.
The result is a generation that must allocate a much larger share of its income to housing before saving for a deposit, investing, starting a family or building long-term financial security. Every dollar spent on rising housing costs is a dollar that cannot be used elsewhere.
Viewed alongside the previous charts, a clear pattern emerges. Property prices have risen sharply, household incomes have not kept pace, and the financial pressure is felt most strongly by younger Australians. The dream of home ownership has not disappeared, but for many young Australians it has moved further out of reach than it was for previous generations.
The next question is whether this pressure is affecting the ability of Australians to enter the housing market itself. Are younger households still becoming homeowners, or are rising costs creating barriers that previous generations did not face?
By this point, the pattern is difficult to ignore.
The previous chart showed that Australians aged 15–24 spend 23.6% of their household income on housing costs, the highest burden of any age group in the dataset. The expectation might be that those making the greatest financial sacrifice would also be the ones building the most housing wealth.
The data tell a different story.
Among Australians aged 15–24, only 0.5% own a residential property in addition to their current home. Even among those aged 25–34, ownership remains relatively low at 12.4%. Yet as the age groups become older, the numbers change dramatically. Property ownership rises to 22.9% among those aged 35–44, reaches 24.2% for Australians aged 45–54, and remains high at 23.7% for the 55–64 age group.
This is where the story becomes more than a discussion about prices.
The generation carrying the heaviest housing burden is not the generation holding the greatest share of housing wealth.
That observation should not be interpreted as criticism of older Australians. Many entered the property market at a different time, under different economic conditions, when the relationship between income and house prices looked very different from today. They played by the rules that existed at the time and benefited from decades of rising property values.
The challenge is that younger Australians are now attempting to follow the same path using a completely different map.
Earlier charts showed Sydney’s residential property price index rising from approximately 85 in 2003 to more than 215 by 2021. Melbourne increased from around 61 to above 180 over the same period. Household incomes grew, but nowhere near as quickly. The result is a housing market where young Australians are contributing a larger share of their income simply to remain housed, while opportunities to accumulate property wealth appear increasingly concentrated among older age groups.
For previous generations, home ownership was often the beginning of wealth creation. For many younger Australians, the challenge is reaching the starting line at all.
And perhaps that is the most confronting finding in the entire dataset.
The affordability crisis is not merely about expensive houses. It is about a growing gap between those who have already entered the market and those still trying to get through the front door.
By this point, the story is no longer just about home ownership.
It is about what happens before home ownership even becomes possible.
The chart above tracks the proportion of lower-income renter households experiencing housing stress, commonly defined as spending more than 30% of household income on housing costs. In 2007–08, approximately 35.0% of lower-income renters were already experiencing housing stress. Rather than improving over time, the situation worsened. By 2015–16, the figure had climbed to 44.3%, meaning that almost one in every two lower-income renter households was under significant financial pressure. Even in 2019–20, the rate remained high at 42.0%.
These numbers help explain why the housing story does not end with rising house prices.
Throughout this article, the evidence has revealed a consistent pattern. Property prices increased rapidly across Australia’s major cities. Household incomes grew, but much more slowly. Younger Australians now devote a larger share of their income to housing costs than older generations, while ownership of additional residential property remains concentrated among older age groups.
The rental market reveals another consequence of these trends.
For many Australians, renting was once viewed as a temporary stage of life. It provided a place to live while savings accumulated and plans for home ownership gradually took shape. The data suggest that this pathway is becoming increasingly difficult to follow.
When more than four in every ten lower-income renters are experiencing housing stress, a large portion of their income is already committed to rent before savings can even begin. Money that might once have gone towards a future deposit is instead being used to meet immediate housing costs. The challenge is no longer simply buying a home. For many households, it is finding enough financial breathing room to prepare for buying one.
This is perhaps the most important finding in the entire story.
The data do not suggest that older Australians are responsible for the difficulties faced by younger generations. Many entered the housing market during a very different period and made decisions that were entirely reasonable at the time. What the data do suggest is that the pathway into home ownership has changed significantly.
For previous generations, renting often represented the first step towards owning a home. For many Australians today, that first step appears increasingly difficult to take.
The Australian dream has not disappeared. The ladder still exists.
The evidence presented throughout this story points in the same direction.
Over the past two decades, Australian property prices have increased substantially, particularly in major cities such as Sydney and Melbourne. While household incomes have also risen, they have not kept pace with the growth in housing costs. As a result, younger Australians now face a housing market that looks very different from the one experienced by previous generations.
The findings suggest that the challenge extends beyond purchasing a home. Many younger households already devote a significant proportion of their income to housing costs, while a large share of lower-income renters continue to experience housing stress. At the same time, housing wealth remains concentrated among Australians who entered the market earlier and benefited from decades of property growth.
This does not mean that home ownership is impossible. Nor does it suggest that previous generations are responsible for the challenges facing younger Australians today. However, the data indicate that the pathway towards home ownership has become longer, more expensive and increasingly uncertain.
The Australian dream still exists. The question raised by this story is whether future generations will have the same opportunity to achieve it.
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2022). Residential Property Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities (Catalogue No. 6416.0). Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2022). Housing Occupancy and Costs, Australia, 2019–20. Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2022). Income and Wealth, Australia. Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2022). Housing Occupancy and
Costs Data Cubes. Australian Bureau of Statistics .
All datasets used in this analysis were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and accessed through the ABS Data Explorer and Housing Occupancy and Costs data cubes.
Generative AI tools were used to assist with brainstorming, editing and refining written explanations. All data collection, analysis, visualisation development and interpretation were reviewed and verified by the author.