Is Australia Running Out of Babies? The Birth Rate Decline in Five Charts

Australia has not produced enough babies to replace its population since 1976. In 2024, the total fertility rate fell to 1.48 births per woman — the lowest in 90 years of records, and nearly 30 per cent below the replacement level of 2.1.

The story dominating headlines is of a nation that has quietly stopped having children. But dig into the data and a more surprising picture emerges. The collapse in the headline rate is partly a counting problem, driven by how Australia measures fertility in a high-migration country. These five charts unpack who stopped having babies, where, and what it means for the future.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Births, Australia (Cat. 3301.0), 2024.
Dotted red line = replacement rate (2.1). Shaded region = years below replacement.

Australia has not reached replacement level since 1976 — nearly 50 years. The Baby Boom peaked at 3.55 in 1961. Since then, a combination of delayed childbearing, rising costs, and changing social norms has steadily eroded the rate. The 2024 figure of 1.48 is the lowest in 90 years of records.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Births, Australia (Cat. 3301.0), 2024.
Age-specific fertility rate = registered births per 1,000 women in each age group.

In 1994, the peak childbearing age was 25–29 (122.5 births per 1,000 women). By 2024 it had shifted to 30–34 (105.2). The rate for teenagers has collapsed from 20.9 to just 6.2 — a fall of 70 per cent in 30 years. Women in their 40s are the only group whose rate has risen. This reflects both deliberate delay and permanent childlessness, particularly among highly educated urban women.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Births, Australia (Cat. 3301.0), 2024.
States ordered by 2024 TFR (highest to lowest).

The national average conceals a 35 per cent gap between the highest and lowest jurisdiction. The Northern Territory (1.62) is the only state near the recent national average; the ACT (1.27) sits below rates seen in many European countries. Crucially, First Nations women remain above replacement at 2.17, and have held their rate far more steadily than non-Indigenous women.

Source: ABS, Births, Australia (Cat. 3301.0), 2024; e61 Institute, The Fertility Illusion, March 2026.
The zoom slider allows detailed inspection of any sub-period.

This is the most important chart in the series. The headline TFR (grey dashed) looks catastrophic at 1.48. But Australian-born women (blue) have only fallen from around 1.80 to 1.62 since 2007. The collapse in the overall rate is driven by overseas-born women’s measured fertility (amber), which has plummeted since 2019.

Why? Australia calculates TFR using all women aged 15 to 49 resident in Australia for 12 of the last 16 months as the denominator, including hundreds of thousands of international students. This population surged post-COVID, but students have near-zero birth rates while studying. The denominator grew while births did not keep pace. The fertility crisis is real, but it is significantly amplified by a statistical artefact unique to high-migration countries.

Source: ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2022–2071 (Cat. 3222.0).
Old-age dependency ratio = population 65+ ÷ population 15–64 × 100.
Series A = high fertility/migration; B = central; C = low.

Today there are approximately 27.5 retirees per 100 working-age Australians. Under the central projection this rises to 44 by 2071. Under the low-fertility scenario, it approaches 52, meaning roughly one retiree for every two workers. This is not an abstract demographic statistic. It translates directly into higher taxes, delayed retirement ages, or reduced public services for every working Australian alive today.

The choice Australia faces is stark. Higher fertility, through better support for families, would ease the burden organically. Sustained migration can substitute, but as Chart 4 shows, it currently distorts how we measure the fertility problem itself. Addressing both requires first being honest about what the data does and does not show.