The Loneliness Epidemic No One Is Counting

Young Australians are more isolated than any other age group — and the data has been hidden in plain sight

In 2001, the loneliest Australians were the elderly. By 2021, that had completely reversed. Australians aged 15–24 are now the most isolated age group in the country — and the trend has been building for nearly two decades. Yet Australia has no National Loneliness Strategy, no dedicated minister, and almost no public policy response. The data has been hiding in plain sight.

43%of Australians aged 15–25 experience loneliness

7×more likely to experience severe psychological distress if persistently lonely

2009the year young people overtook the elderly as Australia’s loneliest group

$0Australia’s annual government investment in a national loneliness strategy

This is not a story about pandemic disruption. The loneliness trend among young Australians predates COVID-19 by a decade. Researchers at the University of Melbourne pinpoint the turning point to around 2008–2009 — the years smartphones and social media reached mass adoption. Since then, every other age group has grown less lonely. Young Australians have grown more so.

What makes this story particularly urgent is that it sits at the intersection of three converging crises — rising youth mental illness, declining social contact, and a policy vacuum — while remaining almost entirely absent from national political debate. The UK, Japan, and Denmark all have national loneliness strategies. Australia does not.

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The great reversal: how young Australians became the loneliest generation

Chart 1 of 5 — Loneliness by age group, 2001–2023

Source: AIHW analysis of HILDA survey waves 1–23 (2001–2023), Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne. Published in AIHW Social Isolation and Loneliness (2024) and HILDA Survey Selected Findings Waves 1–21 (University of Melbourne, 2024).

Key findings — Chart 1

• In 2001, Australians aged 65+ were the loneliest group (22%); those aged 15–24 ranked lowest at 18.5%.
• A turning point emerged around 2009 — coinciding with mass smartphone and social media adoption — when loneliness among 15–24 year olds began a sustained rise while every other age group trended downward.
• By 2021, 24.8% of 15–24 year olds reported loneliness — the highest of any group — while 65+ had fallen to just 15%, the lowest.
• The trend is not simply a COVID-19 effect: the divergence between young and older Australians predates the pandemic by over a decade.
• By 2023, while the pandemic spike had eased, young Australians remained the loneliest age group with rates well above their 2001 baseline.

The HILDA survey asks a simple question: “I often feel very lonely.” More than 17,000 Australians answer it every year. The data tells a story that runs counter to every assumption we hold about who loneliness affects. It used to be the isolated elderly. Now it is the hyper-connected young.

Dr Ferdi Botha of the University of Melbourne’s Melbourne Institute described the pattern as a “clear trend” of younger people becoming lonelier over time. “If there aren’t actions taken or policies implemented to intervene,” he warned, “we may see loneliness and psychological distress increasing in younger generations.”

“It used to be the case that older people were most lonely, but there is a turning point around 2008 to 2009 when we see rates of loneliness for the 15 to 24 age group start to rise. There has been a continuous increase since then.” — Dr Ferdi Botha, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne (2024)

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The health cost: loneliness and psychological distress are rising in lockstep

Chart 2 of 5 — Distress and loneliness among 15–24 year olds, 2011–2021

Source: HILDA Survey Selected Findings Waves 1–21, University of Melbourne (2024); Baker et al. (2025), International Journal of Social Psychiatry, 71(1), 116–128; NSW Population Health Survey (Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence, 2021).

Key findings — Chart 2

• Psychological distress among 15–24 year olds more than doubled from 18.4% in 2011 to 42.3% in 2021 — a 130% increase in a decade.
• Loneliness and lack of social support were the strongest and most rapidly increasing drivers of this distress, ahead of unemployment and financial hardship (Baker et al., 2025).
• Young people with persistent loneliness are over seven times more likely to experience high psychological distress than those who are not lonely (University of Sydney, 2025).
• The 2020 spike reflects COVID-19 lockdowns, but distress had already nearly doubled between 2011 and 2019 — well before the pandemic.
• Loneliness also carries physical health consequences: linked to early vascular dysfunction in adults as young as 22, and immune suppression comparable to smoking 15 cigarettes a day.

The relationship between loneliness and mental health is mutually reinforcing. Poor mental health increases the risk of persistent loneliness, and persistent loneliness worsens mental health outcomes. Baker et al. (2025), analysing 14 years of HILDA data, found that the influence of loneliness on distress had grown stronger over time. The feedback loop is accelerating.

What is the K10?

The Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10) is a standard 10-question measure used in Australian health surveys. A score of 22 or above indicates high distress; 30 or above indicates very high distress. It is widely used by the ABS, AIHW, and state health departments to track population mental health trends over time.

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Who is most at risk? The factors that compound isolation

Chart 3 of 5 — Risk factors for persistent loneliness among 15–25 year olds (multivariate)

Source: Manera et al. (2025), HILDA 2022–23 loneliness analysis, University of Sydney; Mission Australia Social Media and Young People (2025); Orygen and Ending Loneliness Together, Young People and Loneliness Policy Report (2024). Odds ratios are approximate relative risks derived across cited studies.

Key findings — Chart 3

• Having no close friendships is the single strongest predictor of persistent loneliness (4.5x more likely) — yet it affects only 15% of young Australians.
• Poor mental health nearly quadruples the risk (3.8x), creating a reinforcing cycle: loneliness worsens mental health, which deepens loneliness.
• High social media use (3+ hours per day) affects the largest share of young Australians — approximately 45% — and nearly doubles the risk of loneliness.
• Being not in education or employment (NEET) doubles the risk, pointing to the role of institutional belonging in social connection.
• A regional or rural location increases risk by 70%, compounded by reduced access to mental health services and community infrastructure.
• Many risk factors cluster together: young people who are unemployed, have poor mental health, and live regionally face a compounding disadvantage that simple interventions cannot address.

No single variable explains the epidemic. What the data reveals is a web of compounding factors, each reinforcing the others. A comprehensive policy response needs to work at multiple levels simultaneously — not just digital wellbeing campaigns.

Social media: cause or correlation?

Australia passed world-first legislation in November 2024 setting a minimum age of 16 to access social media. Leigh and Tripodi (2025) present six pieces of evidence suggesting smartphones and social media “may have played a causal role in damaging the mental health of young Australians” — but researchers caution the relationship is complex. Low-to-moderate use does not appear to increase loneliness risk.

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Not equally felt: the gender and geography gap

Chart 4 of 5 — Loneliness by age, gender and remoteness (multivariate)

Source: AIHW Social Isolation and Loneliness (2024); AIHW analysis of HILDA survey waves 1–23; ABS Measuring What Matters — Social Connections indicator (2023).

Key findings — Chart 4

• Young women aged 15–24 in regional and remote Australia carry the highest loneliness burden of any demographic — an estimated 28.5%, nearly 10 percentage points above older women in the same locations.
• Across all four groups, loneliness peaks sharply at age 15–24 then declines — confirming youth isolation is a structural pattern, not just a life stage.
• The gender gap is consistent: females report higher loneliness than males at every age group and in both geographic settings, a long-term trend observed since 2001 (AIHW, 2024).
• The geography penalty adds approximately 4–6 percentage points to loneliness rates across all groups, reflecting reduced access to community infrastructure and mental health services.
• The decline in loneliness with age is slower in regional areas, suggesting geographic disadvantage accumulates over a lifetime.

The gender and geography dimensions of youth loneliness are rarely discussed together, yet they produce the sharpest concentration of risk. Young women in regional areas face compounded disadvantage: more likely to be lonely by virtue of age and gender, and less likely to have access to mental health services that could help.

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Left behind: how Australia compares to countries that are actually acting

Chart 5 of 5 — International comparison: youth loneliness vs policy response (multivariate)

Source: Orygen and Ending Loneliness Together, Young People and Loneliness Policy Report (2024); Ending Loneliness Together, A Connected Australia (2023); UK Government loneliness strategy review (2023); OECD / Meta Wellbeing Lab cross-national wellbeing data (2023). Policy scores author-assessed from published government strategy documents.

Key findings — Chart 5

• Among eight comparable high-income nations, Australia has both the highest youth loneliness rate (43%) and the least developed policy response — scoring just 1 out of 5 on policy maturity.
• The UK appointed a Minister for Loneliness in 2018 — the world’s first — investing approximately A$150 million in social connection programmes. Its youth loneliness rate (29%) is 14 points below Australia’s.
• Japan followed in 2021 with its own Minister of Loneliness and approximately US$120 million annually to combat isolation across all age groups.
• Denmark launched a National Loneliness Action Plan in 2023 and reports the lowest youth loneliness rate of any comparable nation at just 22%.
• The US Surgeon General issued a landmark advisory in 2023 declaring loneliness a public health epidemic. Australia has issued no equivalent statement.
• A clear inverse relationship is visible: countries with more mature policy responses report lower youth loneliness rates, suggesting government action can meaningfully shift population-level outcomes.

The international comparison exposes not just a policy gap but a policy choice. Australia has the data — HILDA, AIHW, the University of Sydney, Orygen, and Mission Australia have all published reports in the past 18 months calling for a National Loneliness Strategy. What it does not have is a government willing to act on them.

“Australia now stands at a crossroads. A national strategy underpinned by evidence and by lived experience is crucial to effectively address loneliness.” — Manera et al. (2025), University of Sydney / The Conversation

The cost of inaction is not abstract. Persistent loneliness is associated with a 26% increased risk of premature death — comparable to smoking up to 15 cigarettes a day. It is linked to higher rates of cardiovascular disease, dementia, depression, and anxiety. In young Australians, it is already measurably shortening their years of healthy life. A generation that grew up connected to everything via screens has somehow ended up more isolated than any generation before it. The data has been in plain sight for years. The question is whether anyone in power is looking at it.

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References

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2023). Measuring what matters: Social connections. ABS. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/measuring-what-matters/measuring-what-matters-themes-and-indicators/cohesive/social-connections

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. (2024). Social isolation and loneliness. AIHW. https://www.aihw.gov.au/mental-health/topic-areas/social-isolation-and-loneliness

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. (2023). Australia’s welfare 2023: data insights — Social isolation, loneliness and wellbeing. AIHW. https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/australias-welfare-2023-data-insights/contents/social-isolation-loneliness-and-wellbeing

Baker, D. G., Wang, M., Filia, K. M., Teo, S. M., Morgan, R., Ziou, M., McGorry, P., Browne, V., & Gao, C. X. (2025). The changing impacts of social determinants on youth mental health in Australia. International Journal of Social Psychiatry, 71(1), 116–128. https://doi.org/10.1177/00207640241280910

Ending Loneliness Together. (2023). A connected Australia: The national strategy to reduce loneliness. https://endingloneliness.com.au/

Leigh, A., & Tripodi, G. (2025). The rise of social media and the fall in mental well-being among young Australians. Australian Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12584

Manera, K. E., Smith, B. J., Owen, K. B., & Phongsavan, P. (2025). More than 2 in 5 young Australians are lonely, our new report shows. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/more-than-2-in-5-young-australians-are-lonely-our-new-report-shows-this-is-what-could-help-261260

Mission Australia. (2025). Social media and young people. https://www.missionaustralia.com.au/what-we-do/evidence-impact-and-advocacy/research/reports/social-media-and-young-people/

Mission Australia. (2025). Youth survey 2025. https://www.missionaustralia.com.au/media-centre/media-releases/2025/young-australians-call-for-action-on-cost-of-living-mission-australias-2025-youth-survey/

Orygen & Ending Loneliness Together. (2024). Young people and loneliness policy report. https://endingloneliness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Orygen-young-people-and-loneliness-report-November-2024.pdf

University of Melbourne. (2024). HILDA survey: Selected findings from waves 1–21. Melbourne Institute. https://www.unimelb.edu.au/newsroom/news/2024/february/hilda-data-shows-psychological-distress-rising,-loneliness-highest-amongst-young-people

University of Sydney. (2025, August 4). More than 40 percent of young Aussies are lonely, as experts call for National Loneliness Strategy. https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2025/08/04/more-than-40-percent-of-young-aussies-are-lonely-as-experts-call-for-national-loneliness-strategy.html