Domestic travel is back to almost where it was prior to COVID-19, and national numbers appear to be in good order when airlines report their recovery. However, those who truly received their flights back are completely hidden by that headline.
Since 1984, domestic aviation has been tracked using data from the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (BITRE), which separates Australia’s major cities from its regional and remote areas. It tells a more uneven story.
Here are five charts showing how Australia’s skies have split into two systems:one for the capitals and one for everyone else.
Australia’s aviation sector has grown enormously over four decades, but the gains have never been shared evenly with regionals.
Domestic passenger trips by region type, 1984–85 to 2024–25
Based on BITRE domestic aviation activity data
Source: Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (2025). Australian domestic aviation activity [Data set]. https://www.bitre.gov.au/statistics/aviation/domestic
Over the past forty years, Australia’s aviation sector has grown significantly, and passenger travel has increased in every category. But not everyone has benefited equally from expansion. Compared to regional and rural aviation, major metropolitan routes have continuously transported majority of passengers and have grown more quickly. This variation implies that although Australia’s aviation industry as a whole seems to be doing well, rural areas might not have the same access and connectivity as large cities.
Looking only at passenger totals hides an important trend. Regional aviation recovered after COVID-19, but its recovery has been slower and weaker than major city routes.
Passenger recovery indexed to pre pandemic levels (2019 = 100)
Domestic passenger trips by region type
Source: Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (2025). Australian domestic aviation activity [Data set]. https://www.bitre.gov.au/statistics/aviation/domestic
Each aviation segment recovered from the pandemic in different way, as shown by using 2019 as the baseline. While regional and remote aviation have seen longer recovery in growth, passenger travel on major metropolis flights has now surpassed pre pandemic levels. Travel restrictions and economic impact affected all categories, but metropolitan aviation showed more resilience. This implies that the biggest cities in Australia continue to be the hubs of economic activity, population expansion, and airline investment.
Not all routes are a good investment. The commercial trunk routes differentiate from the thin services that survive because communities rely on them by plotting number of people carried by a route against how full its aircraft fly.
Passengers Vs Load factor on Australia’s top routes
Most recent 12 months, bubble size = great circle distance
Source: Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (2025). Domestic aviation activity: city pair statistics [Data set]. https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/domestic_airline_activity-time_series
Capital to capital lines are concentrated in the upper right corner, with full aircraft and large volumes. Due to their thin economics, which make them vulnerable when an airline pulls back, many regional flights sit lower and further to left, carrying significantly fewer passengers and frequently having empty cabins.
There is more to airfares than just one figure. Regional travellers are more likely to be forced to choose the more costly option when they are differentiated by fare type.
Real domestic air fares by fare type
13 months moving average of the real index
Source: Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (2025). Australian domestic air fares [Data set]. https://www.bitre.gov.au/statistics/aviation/air_fares
While business and full economy rates remained high,best bargain flights are the inexpensive seats you can get by making reservations long in advance and that have drastically decreased in real terms. The drawback for regional passengers is that there are fewer of those inexpensive advance purchase seats on thinner routes with less of a competition and fewer daily flights, which exposes them to the more expensive end of the market.
The two speed narrative becomes geography when the trend is shown on a map, showing which locations are catching up and which are falling behind.
Airport passenger change since 2019
Bubble size = annual domestic passengers, red = decline, blue = growth
Source: Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (2025). Airport traffic data [Data set]. https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/airport_traffic_data
2.BITRE. (2024). Domestic aviation activity. Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics. https://www.bitre.gov.au/statistics/aviation/domestic
3.BITRE. (2021). Domestic Air Fares. Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics. https://www.bitre.gov.au/statistics/aviation/air_fares
4.Bureau of Infrastructure, T. and R. E. (2024). Australian Domestic Airline Activity—time series. Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics. https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/domestic_airline_activity-time_series
5.Bureau of Infrastructure. (2023, May 11). Airport traffic data. Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics. https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/airport_traffic_data
plotly. (n.d.). Modern Analytic Apps for the Enterprise - Plotly. Plotly.com. https://plotly.com/
Cadmus | Student. (2026). Cadmus.io. https://learn.cadmus.io/rmit/9daa6243-a01f-4b24-9452-8170b9673625/work/cf6365e4-3239-4b42-9b57-6731a0102a79/editing
8.Check out this chat. (2026). ChatGPT. https://chatgpt.com/share/6a293539-a8f0-83ec-99f4-088cb9c93af9
This assignment has some prompts answers where Chatgpt has been used to assist in helping to correct small bits of codes and some questions in refining the graphs.Chatgpt has not been used to generate the whole code or graphs.All data sourcing, analysis and chart building has been carried out by me.