Environment & Ecology
The species we’re losing before we even know them
Australia’s environment appears healthier than it did a decade ago. Rainfall has returned, vegetation has rebounded, and national environmental scores have recovered from the shocks of drought, fire and extreme weather. But environmental recovery does not necessarily mean wildlife recovery. While the national scorecard points upward, many of Australia’s threatened species continue to move in the opposite direction. Hidden beneath the positive headlines is a biodiversity crisis that receives far less attention than it deserves.
Australia’s environmental scorecard provides evidence for that recovery story. Following the droughts, bushfires and extreme conditions of the late 2010s, national environmental scores have rebounded and now sit above the long-term average. On its own, this chart suggests that environmental conditions are improving. But these indicators measure rainfall, vegetation cover and ecosystem health at a broad scale. They do not tell us whether Australia’s wildlife is recovering alongside them. To answer that question, we need to look beyond the scorecard.
Source: Australia’s Environment Report 2025 (ANU / TERN). ausenv.tern.org.au. Hover over bars for details.
The recovery story begins to unravel when we look beyond environmental conditions and focus on wildlife itself. The Threatened Species Index tracks long-term population trends for hundreds of monitored threatened species across Australia. Rather than stabilising over time, every major group has declined since 1985. Frogs have experienced the most severe collapse, losing around 97% of their monitored abundance, while reptiles have declined by 94%. Birds, mammals and plants have also trended steadily downward. The pattern is not confined to a handful of iconic species—it is occurring across Australia’s biodiversity.
Source: Threatened Species Index 2025 (TERN / University of Queensland). tsx.org.au. Baseline year 1985 = 100%. Hover over each panel for details.
Long-term population declines eventually become official. When a species faces a heightened risk of extinction, it is added to Australia’s threatened species list under federal law. Over the past 25 years, that list has expanded from 1,412 to 2,175 species—a 54% increase. More concerning than the overall growth is where it is occurring. The sharpest increases have been among Endangered and Critically Endangered species, with the sharpest growth occurring around the years following the Black Summer bushfires. Rather than entering the system early, many species are being recognised only after their decline has become severe.
Source: Australia’s Environment Report 2025 (ANU / TERN); DCCEEW EPBC Act threatened species lists. Derived from ausenv.tern.org.au. Hover over areas for counts by category and year.
The growth of Australia’s threatened species list is not being driven by a single cause. Different groups face different pressures, but a clear pattern emerges: habitat loss remains one of the most widespread threats across Australia’s biodiversity. Plants show the strongest association with habitat degradation, while mammals are particularly affected by invasive species and disease. Frogs, birds and reptiles face a combination of pressures rather than a single dominant threat. Together, these results suggest that Australia’s biodiversity decline is being driven by multiple interacting threats that continue to compound one another over time.
Source: Kearney et al. (2021). A national-scale dataset for threats impacting Australia’s imperiled flora and fauna. Ecology and Evolution, 11(17), 11749-11761. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7920. Click legend to isolate groups; hover for percentages.
Australia’s biodiversity crisis is national, but it is not evenly distributed. New South Wales records the largest number of threatened species, while Western Australia and Queensland also carry a substantial share of the burden. More importantly, these states contain large numbers of species already classified as endangered or critically endangered, indicating that the risk of extinction is becoming increasingly concentrated. The distribution reflects differences in habitat, land use, development pressures and ecosystem diversity across Australia. Understanding where species are most at risk helps identify where conservation efforts may be needed most urgently.
Source: DCCEEW Threatened Species State Lists, 06 February 2026 (data.gov.au). Toggle stacked/side-by-side; hover for counts.
The bottom line: Australia’s environmental scorecard suggests a story of recovery. Rainfall has returned, vegetation has improved and national environmental indicators have rebounded from the shocks of drought and fire. But the evidence presented here reveals a different reality. Across frogs, reptiles, mammals, birds and plants, long-term population trends continue downward. The number of threatened species has increased by 54% since 2000, while habitat loss, invasive species, climate change and other pressures continue to drive declines across the country. Australia’s biodiversity crisis is not hidden because the evidence is missing—it is hidden because broader measures of environmental recovery can mask what is happening to wildlife. The challenge facing Australia is not simply protecting individual species, but ensuring that environmental recovery is measured by the survival of the ecosystems and species that depend on it.
Generative AI was used in the preparation of this assessment. Claude (claude-sonnet-4-6, Anthropic, 2025) was used to assist with the following specific tasks: initial R code scaffolding for plotly visualisations, debugging interactive chart rendering issues, and structural suggestions for narrative flow. All data sourcing, data verification, story angle development, chart design decisions, narrative writing, and final editorial judgements were completed independently by me. AI-generated content was reviewed, modified and adapted throughout.
Data note: The data used in Chart 3 and Chart 4 were not publicly available in machine-readable formats suitable for direct analysis in R.
For Chart 3, values were manually extracted from figures published in Australia’s Environment Report 2025 (Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network, 2025) and converted into CSV format for visualisation. The reconstructed dataset was used to reproduce the trends reported in the original publication.
For Chart 4, values were manually approximated from the threat summary figure published in Kearney et al. (2021) because the underlying data were not provided as a downloadable dataset. The reconstructed values were used to illustrate the relative importance of major threat categories across species groups and are intended to reflect the patterns reported in the original source.
All original publications are cited in the References section.Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network. (2025). Australia’s Environment Explorer: Environmental condition score [Interactive dashboard]. https://ausenv.tern.org.au/aex
Threatened Species Index (TSX). (2025). Australia’s Threatened Species Index 2025. TERN & University of Queensland. https://tsx.org.au
Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network. (2025). Australia’s Environment Report 2025. https://ausenv.tern.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2025_Aus-Env-Report_FINAL_web.pdf
Kearney, S. G., Wintle, B. A., Fuller, R. A., Possingham, H. P., & Watson, J. E. M. (2021). A national-scale dataset for threats impacting Australia’s imperiled flora and fauna. Ecology and Evolution, 11(17), 11749–11761. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7920
Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. (2026). Threatened species and ecological communities of national environmental significance [Dataset]. data.gov.au. https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/threatened-species-state-lists
Anthropic. (2025). Claude (claude-sonnet-4-6) [Large language model]. https://www.anthropic.com