RRP implementation progress: Analysis of funding requests and the degree of European funds absorption

Warning: The dataset analyzed in this study was obtained based on the information available on different site and documents: platforma monitorpnrr; Comisia Europeana and platforma mfe.gov.ro.

Objective: The study focuses on analyzing the correlation between the objectives (investments, reforms, targets, milestones, etc.) proposed and scheduled for funding under the approved NRRP plan, as well as on evaluating the absorption rate of European funds based on the four funding requests submitted to date. In addition, the study assesses the financial progress and the degree of fulfillment of the milestones and targets associated with the first four payment requests submitted.

Brief presentation of the main events – overview

National Recovery and Resilience Plan – PNRR

Proposal and approval of the PNRR plan

PNRR plan sau Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) was proposed in a geopolitical context marked by a series of crises such as: the pandemic or global health crisis, the energy crisis, inflation etc. with the major objective of absorbing European funds within a clearly established timeframe in order to achieve specific objectives.

Official proposal: The European Commission issued a favorable opinion on October 28, 2021, while approval from the EU Council (ECOFIN – Economic and Financial Affairs Council of the European Union) was obtained on October 29, 2021.

The total value initially approved was 29.2 billion euro (of which the budget allocated for the grant financing component amounted to 14.29 billion EUR, while 14.92 billion euro represented the budget corresponding to the loan financing component.).

Modifications and revisions of the PNRR plan:

The PNRR Plan underwent four major revision stages, each bringing significant changes regarding budget allocations, structure, and deadlines for completing the assumed objectives.

  • First technical revision (took place in June 2022, but was implemented in 2023): the revision was carried out in the context of Romania’s economic growth in 2021 (the value of the gross domestic product – GDP – was higher than initially estimated), which led to a reduction in the grant financing component and the inclusion of a new component dedicated to energy independence (REPowerEU) in order to preserve non-reimbursable funds. The total value of the PNRR plan was set at 28.5 billion EUR, consisting of the loan financing component amounting to 14.9 billion EUR, and the grant financing component amounting to 13.5 billion euro, of which 1.4 billion euro represented the budget allocated to the newly introduced component, REPowerEU – Component 16. Component 16 includes 2 reforms and 7 new investments in green energy, energy efficiency, and workforce reskilling in this sector. Approval for this version of the plan was granted on November 21, 2023 by the European Commission, while the EU Council provided final approval on December 8, 2023. The effects of these modifications were applied retroactively starting from June 2022.

  • Second revision and final version of the PNRR Plan (2025): due to the high risk of losing the entire allocation of non-reimbursable funds (~ 13.6 billion EUR), more than 140 projects were revised/replaced with more mature projects or projects financed from the national budget. Some projects were transferred to the non-reimbursable financing component, while new investments with high economic and social impact were introduced, such as the acquisition of ambulances and the capitalization of the Investment and Development Bank. The total value of the plan decreased to 21.4 billion EUR, of which 13.57 billion euro was allocated to the grant financing component, while 7.84 billion euro was allocated to the loan financing component. The number of milestones and targets associated with the plan decreased from 518 milestones and targets to 390 milestones and targets in order to improve monitoring. The plan was approved by the European Commission on October 22, 2025, while the EU Council granted final approval on November 13, 2025.

Dimensions of the National Recovery and Resilience plan (PNRR)

Dimensions of the PNRR plan: The dimensions of the PNRR can be analyzed across four levels: financial, structural (investments), operational (milestones and targets) and temporal.

Financial dimension
  • Financial dimension: although the initial value of the plan was 29.2 billion euro, it was subsequently adjusted. Currently, the value of the plan stands at euro 21.41 billion. The allocated budget is divided almost equally between two financing components: the grant financing component (non-repayable funds) and the loan financing component (repayable funds obtained under favorable interest conditions).
Structural dimension

  • Structural dimension: the PNRR is built around six mandatory pillars, which branch into 16 thematic components:

    • Green transition which includes 6 components

    • Digital transformation which includes one component

    • Smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth which includes two components

    • Social and territorial cohesion which includes two components

    • Health, as well as economic, social, and institutional resilience which includes three components

    • Policies for the next generation which includes one component

Operational dimension
  • Operational dimension: includes investments and reforms and represents the unit of measurement for the success of the PNRR, rewarding the achieved results.
  • Package of measures: includes measures divided into reforms (legislative changes) and investments.
  • Objectives (in the form of milestones and targets: every euro is conditional upon the achievement of specific objectives.
  • Do no significant harm (DNSH) principle: this principle underlies all PNRR objectives — no investment financed through the PNRR is allowed to negatively affect the environment (projects leading to increased carbon emissions are not financed).
Temporal dimension

The timeframe within which projects must be completed and delivered places the greatest pressure on implementation. The deadline is 31 August 2026, and any delay transforms the expenditure into a burden on the national budget, since the amounts can no longer be reimbursed by the European Commission.

What does the acronym PNRR stand for?

The National Recovery and Resilience plan (PNRR) is an instrument designed to combat the effects generated by economic disparities and by the pandemic on the population. The objective of the PNRR is to attract the funds made available by the EU through NextGenerationEU in order to achieve the milestones and objectives related to reforms and investments, including: a timeline, objectives, indicators, detailed budgets, and an implementation schedule.

What are the principles underlying the PNRR?

The implementation principles of the PNRR are focused on the equitable distribution of funds at geographical level, decentralization, and the role of local authorities. , , .

Structure of the PNRR and its main components

Structure of the PNRR

What are the pillars/directions or the structure of the PNRR?

Romania’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan is structured around six pillars (Green transition, which includes 6 components; Digital transformation, which includes one component; Smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth, which includes two components; Social and territorial cohesion, which includes two components; Health, as well as economic, social, and institutional resilience, which includes three components; and Policies for the next generation, which includes one component), and a total of 16 components.

The components of the PNRR plan

What are the names of the PNRR components that make up the six pillars?

The main components of the PNRR are: Water Management (C1), Forest and Biodiversity Protection (C2), Waste Management (C3), Sustainable Transport (C4), Renovation Wave (C5), Energy (C6), Digital Transformation (C7), Tax Reform and Pension System Reform (C8), Support for the Private Sector, Research, Development and Innovation (C9), Local Fund (C10), Tourism and Culture (C11), Health (C12), Social Reforms (C13), Good Governance (C14), Education (C15), and REPowerEU (C16).

Distribution of allocated funds

Distribution of allocated funds by each component

Distribution of allocate funds by each pillars

Current status of PNRR projects

Components

Allocated budget

Execution budget

Number of investments

Number of reforms

Number of milestone and targets

Structure

Allocated budget

Execution budget

Number of investments

Number of reforms

Number of milestones and targets

Descriptive statistics

Histogram

Allocated budget

Execution budget

Degree of absorbtion

Number of investments

Number of reforms

Number of milestones and targets

Boxplot

Allocated budget

Execution budget

Degree of absorption

Number of investments

Number of reforms

Number of milestones and targets

Current status

The final version of the PNRR plan is the one approved in November 2025 and includes the latest adjustments to projects and financial allocations amounting to 21.41 billion euro.

Implementation status: by November 2025, Romania had received 10.72 billion euro from the total value of the PNRR plan.

The only payments made so far are:

  • pre-financing, and

  • the first 3 payment requests out of the total of 6 payment requests that can be submitted.

  • The fourth payment request, estimated at €2.62 billion, was recently submitted and validated by the European Commission (15.05.2026), the process being hindered by outstanding targets and milestones, as well as implementation deadlines.

The Figure presents the amounts allocated to each PNRR component, the amounts effectively spent, the absorption rate, the number of reforms and investments, as well as the proposed targets and milestones.

The Figure presents descriptive statistical indicators calculated for the analyzed variables. We observe that the average value of the allocated budget per component is 1338 million euro. We also observe that the difference between the mean and the median is large, reflecting the existence of components for which very large budgets were allocated.

We observe that the distribution of PNRR components by allocated budget is strongly right-skewed and leptokurtic (budgets corresponding to components such as Transport and Education influence the average allocated budget value). Therefore, the distribution of PNRR components by allocated budget is not uniform. There is a concentration of allocated amounts on certain important PNRR components (green transition (~41%) and digitalization (~21%), imposed by the European Commission in order to obtain financing).

The average value of financial execution is 520.82 milioans euro. We observe that the amounts effectively spent are not uniformly distributed, with several PNRR components dominating the absorption rate of the funds made available by the EU. Most components show limited progress in the absorption of EU funds.

We observe that the average value of the absorption rate is 35%, showing an approximately symmetrical distribution (the skewness coefficient value is -0.21, while the kurtosis coefficient value is -1.4, which is very low). Therefore, the absorption rate is slow to moderate, but far from the optimal value required for the successful completion of all projects.

Correlation analysis

The analysis of the relationship between the absorption rate variable and the variables: a) number of investments, b) number of reforms, and c) targets and milestones is presented below.

Execution vs. complexity

The analysis of the relationship between the variables absorption rate and number of investments highlights a weak inverse relationship (the correlation coefficient is negative and very small). We observe high variability in the area of low and medium values. Therefore, a large number of investments implies high operational complexity, administrative fragmentation, and coordination difficulties.

Reforms vs. execution

The analysis of the relationship between the absorption rate and the number of reforms shows that there is no relationship between these variables (no trend appears). This can be explained by the fact that reforms are legislative/institutional processes and do not involve immediate direct financial flows. Therefore, financial execution is not directly determined by the intensity of reforms, but rather by the implementation of investments.

Milestones and targets vs. execution

We observe that the relationship between the absorption rate and the number of milestones and targets is direct and weak. Milestones impose procedural discipline, stimulate progress, and condition the payments received from the European Commission. Thus, components with more milestones tend to be better monitored and, implicitly, better executed.

The relationship between the absorption rate or financial execution variable and the three structural dimensions of the PNRR components — number of investments, number of reforms, and number of targets and milestones — is presented above.

The correlation coefficient values

Correlation matrix

The values of the individual (Pearson) correlation coefficients and their interpretation are:

  • allocated budget – budget execution: 0.9158 (very strong positive). Projects with large budgets tend to have higher expenditures.

  • allocated budget – execution rate: 0.2211 (positive and weak). The size of the budget is weakly correlated with the execution rate.

  • allocated budget – number of investments: 0.2071 (positive and weak). There is a direct relationship between the allocated budget and the number of investments.

  • allocated budget – number of reforms: -0.2210 (negative and weak). There is a weak negative relationship between the allocated budget and the number of reforms.

  • allocated budget – targets and milestones: 0.0480 (very small, close to zero). There is no linear correlation.

  • budget execution – execution rate: 0.5237 (positive and moderate). High execution expenditures tend to be associated with a high execution rate.

  • budget execution – number of investments: -0.0338 (close to zero). There is no linear correlation.

  • budget execution – number of reforms: -0.2536 (negative and weak). Higher financial execution is associated with a smaller number of reforms.

  • budget execution – number of targets and milestones: -0.0859 (very weak and negative).

  • execution rate – number of investments: -0.2838 (negative and weak). A high execution rate is associated with a smaller number of investments.

  • execution rate – number of reforms: -0.0553 (close to zero).

  • execution rate – number of targets and milestones: 0.0448 (close to zero).

  • number of investments – number of reforms: 0.2282 (weak and positive). The number of investments and reforms are positively correlated.

  • number of investments – targets and milestones: 0.7045 (strong and positive). A large number of investments is associated with a large number of targets and milestones.

  • number of reforms – number of targets and milestones: 0.6514 (moderate positive). A large number of reforms tends to be associated with a large number of targets and milestones.

Complexity affects the execution rate: thus, as the number of investments increases, administrative complexity also increases, which may reduce implementation efficiency. The analysis of the relationship between the absorption rate and the number of investments suggests that, as the number of investments increases, the efficiency of financial execution tends to decrease, or the absorption rate declines, due to increased operational and administrative complexity.

Structural complexity (a large number of investments) reduces execution efficiency by increasing coordination costs and operational risks.

Reforms do not directly influence execution: Financial execution is not influenced by the number of reforms, suggesting a separation between the institutional and operational dimensions. There is a separation between the institutional and operational dimensions of the PNRR because reforms are usually implemented at the beginning (adoption of laws, changes to the legislative framework, etc.), actions which do not necessarily involve spending money but do impact projects or investments — they may either inhibit or accelerate the implementation of an investment or project, while projects themselves are carried out over a certain period of time.

Reforms generally have an indirect impact on projects or investments because they create the legislative framework, but they do not generate immediate execution (funds do not come from reforms, but from the implementation of associated investments). For example, component C14 – Good Governance has a very small budget, while the number of reforms that must be adopted is very large. Therefore, reforms are necessary for the functioning of the system, but they do not represent a direct determinant of financial execution in the same way that the effective implementation of projects does.

Milestones have an accelerating role: The existence of a large number of targets and milestones is associated with a higher absorption rate, highlighting the importance of monitoring mechanisms. The positive relationship between the two variables suggests that the monitoring mechanisms and financial conditions imposed by the EU contribute to increasing the implementation rate and accelerating financial execution.

For the reimbursement of funds, the European Commission verifies the objectives (milestones and targets) achieved and specified in the financing request (accompanied by supporting documents) and approves the payment requests submitted by the government depending on the degree of fulfillment. Thus, the ministries involved are required to deliver results and constantly monitor the progress of each PNRR project.

Tabel. The 20 new proposed measures

Tabel.The 149 modified measures

The modifications made were aimed at achieving the objectives assumed through the PNRR plan.

The revision process mainly targeted bureaucratic simplification and the adjustment of allocated budgets caused by the impact of external factors (such as price increases, delays, etc.), as well as a strategic realignment. The eliminated measures were replaced with new investments in priority areas such as energy (storage, efficiency, etc.), social infrastructure (nurseries, schools, etc.), healthcare (hospitals, ambulances, etc.), and support for the private sector (capitalization of the National Development Bank, financial instruments, etc.).

Reimbursement of expenditures from the European Commission

How many payments have been made so far?

Payments are structured in semiannual installments: Romania has received so far approximately 10.72 billion euro (this amount includes pre-financing — 13% of the initial allocation, approximately 3.7 billion euro, of which 1.851 billion euro represents grant financing and 1.942 billion euro represents loan financing — as well as additional pre-financing for the REPowerEU component amounting to 288 million euro, meaning that the total pre-financing received amounts to 4.08 billion euro), two payment requests (payment request 1 (CP1) amounting to 2.59 billion euro and payment request 2 (CP2) amounting to 2.8 billion euro), and part of the third payment request (the value received for CP3 was 1.65 billion euro — initially the net value was 2.02 billion euro, but only 1.3 billion euro was received in the first stage, after which 350.7 million euro was recovered following negotiations and 458.7 million euro was permanently lost due to unfulfilled targets and milestones). This amount represents approximately half of the revised allocated sum.

This amount represents the effective payments reimbursed to Romania by the European Commission after the verification of the targets and milestones. Funds under the PNRR are granted in biannual installments, depending on the fulfillment of the assumed objectives.

Each version of the PNRR plan is composed of objectives in the form of reforms and investments, milestones (qualitative actions), and targets (quantitative indicators). The initial PNRR plan consisted of 507 objectives (milestones and targets), while the current version of the PNRR plan consists of a reduced number of approximately 390 targets and milestones.

Table. Chronology of payment requests corresponding to the initial PNRR plan

On the EU platform, we can find the chronology of events related to the implementation of the PNRR plan (which entered into force on 19 February 2021 and ends at the end of 2026) that took place up to 19 December 2025 (modified PNRR — first revised version):

The Table presents the initially requested amounts and the amounts effectively received by the Romanian Government through the submitted payment requests. It can be observed that, in the case of certain payment requests (CP2 and CP3), the amounts were not fully reimbursed, with differences existing between the requested sums and the amounts effectively reimbursed due to unfulfilled targets and milestones.

In the following section, we present the amounts received by Romania after the European Commission verified the payment requests and the fulfilled objectives (targets and milestones).

Table. Amounts received by Romania for the first three submitted payment requests and the submission of CP4 positively endorsed by the European Commission

Table. Amounts reimbursed (including CP4, which is to be received) from the European Union so far

Remaining amount to be reimbursed is: 

## Remaining amount to be reimbursed (after the fourth payment request): 8070.25 million euro (which will be covered by payment requests 5, 6, etc.)

The amounts received by Romania through the PNRR program (on both financing components — grants and loans) up to spring 2026 amount to 10,685,146,319 euro. The governmental website guvernamental mentions the amount of 10.74 billion euro, to which an additional 2.62 billion euro from payment request no. 4 will be added. The difference up to 10.74 billion euro is 54,853,681 euro, representing exactly the amount suspended from payment request no. 3 under the loan financing component.

The revised PNRR plan is estimated at 21.42 billion euro (divided by financing component: grant financing component and loan financing component). The amount effectively paid so far is approximately 10.68 billion euro. Payments are made in installments as Romania fulfills the assumed milestones and targets. By the end of 2025, Romania had submitted the fourth payment request, while the plan extends until August 2026. Therefore, if the objectives are fulfilled, future payment requests (CP5, CP6, etc.) will most likely cover the remaining difference of 8,070.25 million euro.

Table. Versions of the PNRR plan and its value up to the present

Pre-financing (6.6% of GDP)

Pre-financing is not linked to a payment request but represents an advance received by Romania (13% of the total allocation) for the initiation of projects, which is later deducted from future installments. According to the regulation, Member States received 13% of the total allocation calculated based on GDP.

The allocated value is divided into two sub-budgets with different financing sources: the grant financing component and the loan financing component with favorable interest rates.

The total value of the pre-financing amounts to 2,139,237,912 euro for the grant financing component and 1,942,479,890 euro for the loan financing component, as specified in payment Decision 3, points 77–78. Therefore, the total pre-financing received by Romania amounts to 4,081,717,802 euro.

Balance of reforms and investments

Distribution of financing requests by the number of fulfilled targets and milestones across financing components

CP1

Payment request number 1

Romania received for CP1, submitted on 1 June 2022, a net amount of 2,561,989,840 euro (1,772,317,380 euro representing the grant financing component and 789,672,460 euro representing loan financing), after deducting the pre-financing and the pre-financing surplus. In this case, Romania fully reimbursed the entire amount on 27 October 2022.

At the time of evaluation, all requested milestones and targets had been fulfilled, with no unfulfilled milestones or suspended amounts. Therefore, Romania was not required to take corrective measures for this installment.

Distribution of the number of targets and milestones across financing components for CP1

Total number of targets and milestones

Number of fulfilled targets and milestones

Number of unfulfilled targets and milestones

Distribution of the a) total, b) fulfilled, and c) unfulfilled number of targets and milestones across the two financial components (grant and loan) for CP1 are presented above.

CP2

Payment request number 2

For the second installment, CP2, the net amount received in September 2023 was 893,345,055 euro. Subsequently, in December 2024, it was decided to reduce Romania’s total loan by 10,772,581 euro due to the non-fulfillment of milestone 129. This reduction does not affect the amount already paid but will be compensated from future installments.

The total number of fulfilled milestones and targets was 49 out of a total of 51 milestones and targets.

The milestones that were not satisfactorily fulfilled and for which payments were suspended through Decision 3490 are as follows:

The amount initially suspended by the European Commission was 53,364,833 euro due to the non-fulfillment of the two milestones. Subsequently, following a favorable evaluation in June 2024, the Commission considered milestone 133 fulfilled, allowing the full release of the corresponding amount of 17.78 million euro. Milestone 129 remained unfulfilled, and the related suspended amount was reduced. Official documents indicate that Romania’s total loan was reduced by 10.77 million euro.

Distribution of the number of targets and milestones across financing components for CP2

Total number of targets and milestones

Number of fulfilled targets and milestones

Number of unfulfilled targets and milestones

Distribution of the a) total, c) fulfilled, and c) unfulfilled number of targets and milestones for CP2 across two financial coponents (grant and loan) is presented above.

CP3

Payment request number 3

Decision 3487 of 28 May 2025 indicates that a total of 43 milestones and targets for non-repayable support and 31 milestones and targets for repayable support were evaluated. Out of the total of 74 evaluated milestones and targets, 6 were not fulfilled (4 milestones and targets for non-repayable support and 2 milestones and targets for repayable support).

Romania received for CP3 a net amount of 1,279,776,241 euro (622,487,484 euro representing the grant financing component and 657,288,757 euro representing loan financing), after deducting pre-financing and the pre-financing surplus. The six unfulfilled milestones remain suspended, and Romania has six months from 28 May 2025 to implement corrective measures.

The total suspended amount is 869,814,447 euro (of which 814,386,174 euro represents the non-repayable financing component and 55,428,273 euro represents the loan financing component).

The milestones that were not satisfactorily fulfilled and for which payments were suspended through Decision 3490 are as follows:

Distribution of the number of targets and milestones across financing components for CP3

Total number of targets and milestones

Number of fulfilled targets and milestones

Number of unfulfilled targets and milestones

Distributia numarului de jaloane si tinte a) totale, b) indeplinite, respectiv c) neindeplinite pe CP3 pe cele doua componente financiare: grant si loan.

CP4

Payment request number 4

The fourth payment request was submitted on 19 December 2025 following a modification of the PNRR plan. The gross value of the financing request amounts to 2.62 billion euro, and the request is composed exclusively of non-repayable funds, covering 62 milestones and targets, of which 38 are reforms and 24 are investments.

On 14 May 2026, the European Commission issued a positive preliminary assessment, concluding that Romania had satisfactorily fulfilled all 62 milestones and targets associated with the request.

Following the approval of CP4, the implementation rate of the PNRR plan exceeded 60.6%.

The net amount that will enter the country after deducting pre-financing is approximately 2.28 billion euro.

Distribution of the number of targets and milestones across financing components for CP4

Total number of targets and milestones

Number of fulfilled target and milestones

Number of unfulfilled target and milestones

Distribution of a) total, b) fulfilled, and c) unfulfilled number of targets and milestones for CP4 across two financial components: grand and loan.

Distribution of targets and milestones achieved so far

Total number of targets and milestones

Total number of targets and milestones for grant component

Total number of targets and milestones for loan component

In Figure are presented the distribution of the number of targets and milestones: a) overall, b) for the grant financing component, and c) for the loan fainancing component associated with the four payment requests submitted to the European Commission for reimbursement up to the present.

We observe that the total number of fulfilled targets and milestones is 200, of which 144 are associated with the grant financing component, while the remaining 56 fulfilled targets and milestones belong to the loan financing component. Regarding the number of unfulfilled targets and milestones, we observe a total of 8 unfulfilled milestones and targets corresponding to payment requests number 2 and number 3.

Balance of amounts received

CP1

Payment request number 1

Tabel. Value of authorized amounts by financing component for CP1

Distribution of authorized values for CP1 by financing component

Gross value

Net value

Deducted value/received pre-financing

CP2

Payment requests number 2

Table. Value of authorized amounts by financing component for CP2

Distribution of authorized values for CP2 by financing component for CP2

Gross value

Net value

Deducted value / received pre-financing

CP3

Payment request number 3

Table. Value of authorized amounts by financing component for CP3

Distribution of authorized values for CP3 by financing component

Gross value

Net value

Deducted value

CP4

Payment request number 4

Distribution of authorized values for CP4 by financing component

Gross value

Net value

Deducted value

Value of payment requests

Grant financing component

Payment requests corresponding to the grant financing component according to the chronology of PNRR events

Distribution of amounts received under the grant financing component

Gross value

Deducted value/Received pre-financing

Net value

Loan financing component

Payment requests corresponding to the loan financing component according to the chronology of PNRR events

Distribution of amounts received under the loan financing component

Gross value

Deducted value/Received pre-financing

Net value

Distribution of amounts received so far by financing components (grant and loan)

Gross value

Deducted value/Received pre-financing

Net value

Distribution of peyment requests by amounts received from European Union

Gross value

Distribution of payment requests by gross amounts received from European Union

Deducted value/Received pre-financing (13%)

Distribution of payment requests by deducted/pre-financing amounts received from European Union

Net value

Distribution of payment requests by net amounts received from European Union

Distribution of payment requests by total authorized value

Gross value

Net value

Distribution of payment requests by total net authorized value

Deducted value/Receiving pre-financing

Distribution of payment requests by total reimbursed authorized value

Distribution of payment requests by authorized value across financing components

Grass value

Distribution of payment requests by gross authorized value across financing components

Net value

Deducted value/Received pre-financing

Distribution of payment requests by authorized value by financing components without including the pre-financing values

Gross value

Distribution of payment requests by gross authorized value across financing components

Net value

Deducted/Received pre-financing

Status of pre-financing coverage

So far, the net amount received under the grant financing component amounts is 8.682 billion euro (64%) (the gross value being 9.99 billion euro) out of the total allocation of 13.566 billion euro. Therefore, the remaining amount that can still be reimbursed under the grant financing component is approximately 4.884 billion euro.

Distribution of the amounts remaining to be reimbursed by financing component

Regarding the loan financing component, we observe that Romania has so far managed to absorb approximately 4.283 billion euro net out of the total allocated amount of 7.844 billion euro, which means that 3.561 billion euro (54.6%) still remains available.

Considering that the value of the plan represented 13% of the GDP recorded in 2019, and that the pre-financing represented 13% of each financing component, the net pre-financing received under the grant component amounted is 1.763 billion euro, while under the loan component it amounted to 1.0197 billion euro. Together, the total amount received as pre-financing is 2.785 billion euro.

Received pre-financing vs. the actual 13% pre-financing based on the current allocations

The amount deducted so far is 1.306 billion euro under the grant financing component and 0.349 billion euro under the loan financing component. Thus, the total deducted amount for both components is 1.655 billion euro, representing approximately 60.6%.

The remaining amount up to 100% will be deducted from future payment requests, approximately 39.4%.

In the case of the grant financing component, 0.833 billion euro still remains to be covered, while under the loan financing component 1.592 billion euro remains to be covered through future payment requests.

The percentage of pre-financing already covered under the grant financing component is 61.1%, while for loans it is only 18%.

Status of pre-financing coverage (deductions applied up to payment request CP4)

Net absorbed amounts (pre-financing plus payment requests) vs. amounts remaining to be absorbed

Mentionam ca prefinantarea a fost calculata pe baza valorii planului PNRR initial si este mai mare decat cea pe care ar fi trebuit sa o primim tinand cont ca valoarea planului este in prezent de 21.41 miliarde de euro. Prefinantare primita in exces va fi recuperata treptat de UE prin deducerile aplciate cererilor de plata viitoare. Pana la cerera de finantare numarul 4, din prefinantare s-a acoperit 40.6% (1.656 miliarde euro), ramanand de acoperit 2.425 miliarde euro.

We note that the pre-financing was calculated based on the value of the initial PNRR plan and is larger than the amount Romania should have received considering that the current value of the plan is 21.41 billion euro.

The excess pre-financing received will be gradually recovered by the European Union through deductions applied to future payment requests.

Up to payment request number 4, 40.6% of the pre-financing had been covered (1.656 billion euro), leaving 2.425 billion euro still to be covered.

Percentage of reimbursed amounts vs. amounts remaining to be reimbursed by financing component

The remaining total value of 8.446 billion euro may be requested through future payment requests, which must be submitted by August 2026.

Conclusions

The analysis of the descriptive statistical indicators highlights a highly concentrated distribution of budgets, with a limited number of major components accounting for most of the total financing. At the same time, the execution of funds remains uneven, reflecting significant differences in administrative and implementation capacity across PNRR components. With an average absorption rate of approximately 35%, the implementation process is currently at an intermediate stage, although several components with low financial execution continue to face substantial risks.

The main risks associated with PNRR implementation are linked to delays that may ultimately lead to the permanent loss of European funds. The amounts received so far — representing roughly 50% of the revised allocation — consist mainly of pre-financing and the completion of less complex projects. In contrast, large infrastructure investments and major structural reforms remain exposed to implementation risks and tight deadlines.

The results suggest that structural complexity, reflected by a high number of investments, negatively affects implementation efficiency by increasing coordination costs, administrative fragmentation, and operational risks, ultimately reducing the absorption rate. Conversely, milestones and targets play a positive role in accelerating financial execution, as reimbursements from the European Commission depend directly on the the degree of fulfillment and verification of these objectives.

Although reforms do not directly generate financial execution, they remain essential through their indirect institutional role. Reforms establish the legislative and administrative framework that can either facilitate or hinder the implementation of investments. Consequently, understanding the real absorption capacity of the PNRR requires a distinction between the institutional dimension (reforms) and the operational dimension (investments, milestones, and targets).

By the beginning of 2026, Romania had absorbed approximately 10.7 billion euro out of the total 21.41 billion euro allocated through the PNRR plan, representing around 50% of the available funds. The fourth payment request, worth 2.62 billion euro, is expected to further improve the absorption rate once the reimbursement is completed.

Following the evaluation of CP2 and CP3, six milestones corresponding to nearly 870 million euro remained unfulfilled, mainly affecting state-owned enterprise governance, special pensions, and railway infrastructure reforms. While CP3 did not resolve these issues, CP4 focused on alternative objectives and achieved a full completion rate, similar to CP1. This may reflect both improved administrative capacity and a more selective inclusion of milestones and targets.

Despite the positive outcome of CP4, Romania still risks losing significant European funds due to the remaining unfulfilled milestones, especially those linked to major investments and structural reforms. To reduce these risks, Romania must accelerate pending reforms and finalize large infrastructure projects before the August 2026 deadline for submitting the remaining payment requests.

So far, Romania has received approximately 12.96 billion euro, representing 60.6% of the revised PNRR allocation, while an additional 8.45 billion euro remains to be absorbed. The absorption rate is higher for the grant component (64%) than for the loan component (54.6%), highlighting the greater implementation difficulties associated with repayable investments and large-scale infrastructure projects.

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