Predicting Calculus Success at Wyoming Community Colleges

• The Economic Stakes: STEM jobs in Wyoming are projected to double between 2021 and 2031 (Turbitt, 2022).
• The Wage Gap: Average wages in Wyoming for STEM ($75,620) significantly outpace non-STEM ($51,010) occupations (Turbitt, 2022).
• The Gateway Course: Calculus I serves as both the essential gateway and the primary academic barrier to these high-wage STEM degrees (Redmond-Sanogo et al., 2016).
• The Community College Role: Half of all undergraduates attend community colleges, but they remain historically less likely to graduate with STEM degrees (Bahr et al., 2023; Zhang, 2022).
• The Core Question: Do our placement systems and math pathways successfully build student momentum, or do they inadvertently recreate barriers for students? (Bahr et al., 2017; Burn et al., 2015)

• The Default Pathway: ACT is required for nearly every Wyoming high school junior, making it the default placement tool (Wyoming Department of Education, 2025).
• Statewide Landscape: Every Wyoming community college uses ACT Math to place students up to Calculus I plus other placement test(s).
• The Shift to Holistic Measures: Only 2 out of 7 colleges currently incorporate high school GPA or transcripts into their formal placement practices.

Note. Data gathered from institutional websites. CWC currently utilizes ACT scores and specialized placement tests (ALEKS) rather than high school transcripts for calculus placement. Rows highlighted in pink integrate HS GPA/transcripts.

Placement metrics are not “one-size-fits-all”, the best predictor of success changes depending on who the student is.

• High School GPA is a Powerful Predictor: For traditional-age students, high school GPA is the single strongest predictor of success. A standard-deviation increase in GPA yields an 87% increase in the odds of passing Calculus I.
• Time Erodes the Value of HS GPA: For adult learners and non-traditional students (2+ years post-high school), high school GPA holds no statistical relationship to college calculus success.
• ACT Math and Concurrent Enrollment Precalculus: ACT Math does not predict success on its own, but amplifies the benefits of concurrent enrollment precalculus coursework. Concurrent enrollment coursework prior to calculus did not improve success unless combined with a high ACT Math score.
• The Takeaway: Math placement needs to be holistic incorporating different measures for different student populations.

As CWC grows more diverse, are our math pathways keeping pace?

• Strong Overall Pass Rate: Wyoming community colleges average a 72% Calculus I pass rate, outpacing the national average of 67% (Tremaine et al., 2022). CWC students are succeeding once they arrive.
• A More Diverse Community: CWC’s non-white enrollment has grown from approximately 25% in 2012 to 39% in 2022 (IPEDS). CWC is serving an increasingly diverse student population.
• A Question Raised by the Model: The peer effect finding, that URM students do not share equally in the benefits of high-performing classrooms, points to a need to better understand who is reaching calculus and what support structures exist once they arrive.
• The Takeaway: This study raises important questions that warrant further investigation at the institutional level. As our community becomes more diverse, ensuring equitable access to calculus pathways and meaningful support within them is an area worth ongoing attention.