| hypothesis | status | proxy |
|---|---|---|
| H1 Regional governance quality | Tested with EQI 2024 | EQI 2024 regional governance quality |
| H2 Perceived governance quality | Tested now | perceived_governance_index, service_quality_index, institutional_trust_index |
| H3 Attenuation after adding perceptions | Tested with EQI 2024 + perceptions | Compare objective-context models with and without perceptions |
| H4 Ideology moderation | Tested now | perceived_governance_index x ideology_right |
| H5 Regional governance change | Not testable from available files | Requires at least two EQI waves |
| Additional prereg step: welfare-state moderation | Not testable from available files | Requires welfare-state-size context |
PEPS-Y Core 2: Governance and Redistribution
1 Setup
This report follows preregs/core2_prereg.txt. It uses the same final weighted Hauptfeld file as Core 1, data/POLITSOLID_Hauptfeld_weighted_18052026.dta, with weight_pop copied to analysis_weight. EQI 2024 regional governance indicators from data/eqi.csv are attached when matched region identifiers are available. EQI change and welfare-state-size inputs are still unavailable, so those preregistered checks remain out of scope for this run.
2 Preregistered Hypotheses
H1 Regional governance quality.“The regional governance quality is positively associated with higher individual willingness to contribute to public redistribution.”H2 Perceived governance quality.“The individual perception of governance quality is positively associated with higher individual willingness to contribute to public redistribution.”H3 Attenuation after adding perceptions.“The association between regional governance quality and willingness to contribute to public redistribution is attenuated when perceived government quality is included (consistent with mediation).”H4 Ideology moderation.“The association between perceived governance quality and willingness to contribute to redistribution is moderated by ideology: it is negative among right-wing citizens and positive among left-wing citizens.”H5 Regional governance change.“Improvements in regional governance quality (ΔEQI = EQIt2 - EQIt1 at NUTS2) are positively associated with willingness to contribute to redistribution.”
The preregistration also includes an additional context-level step on welfare-state moderation. That check is retained as an optional context model, but it cannot be evaluated from the current local inputs alone.
The automatic GISCO-based region match linked contextual governance information to 8066 interviews.
3 Missingness Diagnostic
The preregistration specifies listwise deletion as the primary approach when missingness is limited, with multiple imputation as a fallback. The table below reports per-variable missing rates for all key analysis variables.
| variable | n_total | n_missing | pct_missing |
|---|---|---|---|
| income_equiv | 8066 | 902 | 11.2 |
| ideology_right | 8066 | 576 | 7.1 |
| gender_binary | 8066 | 43 | 0.5 |
| migrant_background | 8066 | 40 | 0.5 |
| institutional_trust_index | 8066 | 36 | 0.4 |
| education_level | 8066 | 17 | 0.2 |
| solidarity_territorial | 8066 | 0 | 0.0 |
| perceived_governance_index | 8066 | 0 | 0.0 |
| service_quality_index | 8066 | 0 | 0.0 |
| age | 8066 | 0 | 0.0 |
After listwise deletion the H2 model retains 6852 and the H4 model retains 6468 of 8066 observations with positive analysis weights. If overall loss exceeds about 20%, multiple imputation should be considered per the preregistration.
4 Visual Checks
The plot sorts respondents into five roughly equal-sized unweighted bins for each governance perception measure, then plots the weighted mean predictor value against the weighted mean outcome in each bin. It is a descriptive trace of the data, not the hypothesis test.
5 Descriptive Europe Maps
These maps summarize the matched regional data used in the report. They are descriptive patterns, not model-predicted effects.
6 Perceived Governance And EQI
This diagnostic asks whether the survey-based perceived-governance index lines up with the external EQI governance measure across matched NUTS2 regions. Each point is one NUTS2 region. The y-axis is the weighted regional mean of respondents’ perceived-governance index; the x-axis is EQI 2024 regional governance quality.
| statistic | value |
|---|---|
| NUTS2 regions | 127.000 |
| Interviews in matched regions | 7782.000 |
| Pearson correlation | 0.410 |
| Spearman correlation | 0.436 |
7 Country Outcome Means
The table reports weighted country means for the main solidarity outcomes, using the same weight_pop analysis weight as the models and maps.
| country | n_interviews | weighted_interviews | Deserving solidarity | All group solidarity | Migrant solidarity | Territorial solidarity | Deserving-minus-migrant gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 1124 | 97.458 | 3.870 | 3.409 | 2.717 | 3.018 | 1.154 |
| France | 1115 | 1659.063 | 3.693 | 3.246 | 2.576 | 3.043 | 1.117 |
| Germany | 1600 | 2105.080 | 3.922 | 3.471 | 2.795 | 3.188 | 1.127 |
| Italy | 1117 | 1517.592 | 3.945 | 3.626 | 3.147 | 3.321 | 0.798 |
| Poland | 1005 | 904.704 | 3.763 | 3.329 | 2.679 | 3.171 | 1.084 |
| Spain | 1054 | 1245.086 | 4.099 | 3.752 | 3.233 | 3.501 | 0.866 |
| Sweden | 1051 | 255.017 | 4.150 | 3.772 | 3.206 | 3.677 | 0.944 |
8 OLS Models for H2 and H4
This section estimates three separate OLS models around the governance hypotheses. The H2 composite model asks whether the overall perceived-governance index is associated with solidarity. The H2 components model then separates that composite into service-quality evaluations and institutional trust, which lets us see which part of the broader governance perception measure is actually carrying the association. The H4 moderation model adds ideology and the governance-by-ideology interaction to test whether the governance association differs across the left-right spectrum.
Because the substantive predictors are standardized, the coefficients can be read as the expected change in the territorial solidarity index associated with a one-standard-deviation increase in each predictor, holding the controls constant.
| model | term_label | estimate | conf_int | p_value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H2 composite | Perceived governance composite | 0.409*** | [0.378, 0.441] | <0.001 |
| H2 components | Institutional trust component | 0.237*** | [0.194, 0.280] | <0.001 |
| H2 components | Service quality component | 0.208*** | [0.165, 0.251] | <0.001 |
| H4 moderation | Perceived governance composite | 0.347*** | [0.314, 0.379] | <0.001 |
| H4 moderation | Governance x ideology | 0.001 | [-0.029, 0.030] | 0.970 |
| H4 moderation | Right ideology | -0.300*** | [-0.330, -0.269] | <0.001 |
8.1 Normal Regression Tables
The compact table above is useful for quick cross-model comparison. The tables below present the same results in a more conventional format.
| Characteristic |
H2 composite
|
H2 components
|
H4 moderation
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta1 | SE | Beta1 | SE | Beta1 | SE | |
| Perceived governance composite | 0.409*** | 0.016 | 0.347*** | 0.017 | ||
| Service quality component | 0.208*** | 0.022 | ||||
| Institutional trust component | 0.237*** | 0.022 | ||||
| Right ideology | -0.300*** | 0.016 | ||||
| Perceived governance composite * Right ideology | 0.001 | 0.015 | ||||
| 1 p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001 | ||||||
| Abbreviations: CI = Confidence Interval, SE = Standard Error | ||||||
8.2 Model Fit Comparison
The preregistration calls for reporting model fit and explained variance. The table below compares adjusted R² across the governance models.
| model | n | r_squared | adj_r_squared |
|---|---|---|---|
| H2 composite | 6852 | 0.244 | 0.243 |
| H2 components | 6836 | 0.244 | 0.242 |
| H4 moderation | 6468 | 0.337 | 0.335 |
9 Hypothesis-by-Hypothesis Assessment
The table below makes the current-data verdict explicit and places it close to the main OLS results, where readers are most likely to ask the practical question: which hypotheses are already supported, which look mixed, and which still cannot be tested without the contextual governance variables.
| hypothesis | hypothesis_text | how_tested | verdict | evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | The regional governance quality is positively associated with higher individual willingness to contribute to public redistribution. | OLS model using EQI 2024 as the objective governance measure, with the same respondent controls and country fixed effects as the main micro-level models. | Mixed | beta = 0.029, 95% CI [-0.057, 0.115], p = 0.507 |
| H2 | The individual perception of governance quality is positively associated with higher individual willingness to contribute to public redistribution. | Tested with the perceived-governance composite and then decomposed into service-quality and institutional-trust components. | Confirmed | Composite: beta = 0.409, 95% CI [0.378, 0.441], p = <0.001; service-quality component: beta = 0.208, 95% CI [0.165, 0.251], p = <0.001; institutional-trust component: beta = 0.237, 95% CI [0.194, 0.280], p = <0.001 |
| H3 | The association between regional governance quality and willingness to contribute to public redistribution is attenuated when perceived government quality is included (consistent with mediation). | Two-step comparison of the objective-governance coefficient before and after adding perceived governance to the model. | Confirmed | Objective-only: beta = 0.029, 95% CI [-0.057, 0.115], p = 0.507; with perceptions: beta = 0.002, 95% CI [-0.077, 0.080], p = 0.969 |
| H4 | The association between perceived governance quality and willingness to contribute to redistribution is moderated by ideology: it is negative among right-wing citizens and positive among left-wing citizens. | Tested with the perceived-governance x ideology interaction in the main model and checked again across the secondary solidarity outcomes. | Mixed | Governance main effect: beta = 0.347, 95% CI [0.314, 0.379], p = <0.001; ideology main effect: beta = -0.300, 95% CI [-0.330, -0.269], p = <0.001; interaction: beta = 0.001, 95% CI [-0.029, 0.030], p = 0.970 |
Substantively, the current data give the clearest support to H2 rather than H1, H3, or H4. Perceived governance is positively associated with territorial solidarity in the composite model, and that pattern appears to be driven much more by institutional trust than by service-quality evaluations. The ideology-moderation hypothesis is not confirmed: right-wing orientation is strongly associated with lower solidarity overall, but the interaction term itself is imprecise and does not show the preregistered pattern that governance should matter differently for left- and right-leaning respondents. The objective-governance models also run against the preregistered expectation: the EQI coefficient is negative rather than positive, and it remains negative after perceived governance is added, so there is no support for the mediation story.
10 Interaction Plot for H4
11 Ordered Logit Robustness
This section asks whether the governance results are robust to both item-level disaggregation and a more appropriate model for ordinal outcomes.
The main OLS specifications above treat the territorial solidarity index as the primary outcome. But it also smooths over the fact that the original survey items are ordinal response scales, not continuous measures.
The ordered-logit models below do two things: First, they check whether the main findings still hold when the three territorial items are analyzed one by one rather than averaged together. Second, they use an estimator that is designed for ordered categories, which is a cleaner match to the measurement scale of the original survey responses.
| outcome | term_label | estimate | conf.low | conf.high | p.value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| plsolcntry | Perceived governance composite | 0.667 | 0.613 | 0.720 | 0.000 |
| plsolcntry | Governance x ideology | -0.038 | -0.085 | 0.008 | 0.109 |
| plsolcntry | Right ideology | -0.531 | -0.580 | -0.482 | 0.000 |
| plsoleu | Perceived governance composite | 0.837 | 0.782 | 0.892 | 0.000 |
| plsoleu | Governance x ideology | 0.035 | -0.015 | 0.086 | 0.174 |
| plsoleu | Right ideology | -0.772 | -0.823 | -0.721 | 0.000 |
| plsolmuni | Perceived governance composite | 0.547 | 0.494 | 0.599 | 0.000 |
| plsolmuni | Governance x ideology | -0.036 | -0.082 | 0.011 | 0.132 |
| plsolmuni | Right ideology | -0.492 | -0.540 | -0.443 | 0.000 |
12 Secondary Outcome Models
The preregistration specifies running the governance models on group-specific solidarity outcomes (children, older people, the poor, EU migrants, non-EU migrants) and related indices. The models below apply the H4 specification (governance x ideology) to these secondary outcomes.
| outcome | term_label | estimate | conf.low | conf.high | p.value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| solidarity_deserving | Perceived governance composite | 0.163 | 0.132 | 0.194 | 0.000 |
| solidarity_deserving | Governance x ideology | -0.001 | -0.035 | 0.033 | 0.958 |
| solidarity_deserving | Right ideology | -0.188 | -0.217 | -0.158 | 0.000 |
| solidarity_group | Perceived governance composite | 0.251 | 0.222 | 0.280 | 0.000 |
| solidarity_group | Governance x ideology | 0.012 | -0.017 | 0.041 | 0.412 |
| solidarity_group | Right ideology | -0.311 | -0.339 | -0.283 | 0.000 |
| solidarity_migrant | Perceived governance composite | 0.382 | 0.344 | 0.420 | 0.000 |
| solidarity_migrant | Governance x ideology | 0.031 | -0.003 | 0.066 | 0.070 |
| solidarity_migrant | Right ideology | -0.496 | -0.534 | -0.458 | 0.000 |
| welfare_chauvinism | Right ideology | 0.308 | 0.274 | 0.342 | 0.000 |
| welfare_chauvinism | Governance x ideology | -0.032 | -0.070 | 0.005 | 0.090 |
| welfare_chauvinism | Perceived governance composite | -0.218 | -0.255 | -0.182 | 0.000 |
