| hypothesis | status | available_items | missing_or_note |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 Ideology | Fully testable | poleconred, poleconsmr, leftright | |
| H2a Objective resources | Fully testable | country income item(s), slfstatus | |
| H2b Perceived capacity | Fully testable | fresil, ecohhld | |
| H3a Objective need/risk | Fully testable | public payment items, EmploymentStatusKP | |
| H3b Perceived risk | Fully testable | prskcope, prskunemp, prskunwork, prskcare | |
| H4 Norms and contribution | Partially testable | taxnorm, fraudnorm | rednrmdsc is absent in the Hauptfeld .dta; H4 uses the two available norm items |
| H5a Generalized social trust | Fully testable | soctrst, percfair, perchelp | |
| H5b Institutional trust | Partially testable | trstparl, trstjudi, trstmuni, trstgov, trsteucom, satdem | trstpltcns and trstparts are absent in the Hauptfeld .dta |
| H5c Public-service evaluations | Fully testable | pssatgen and public-service quality/fairness items | |
| H6a Regional service quality | Fully testable | EQI qualityp | |
| H6b Relative regional prosperity | Fully testable | Eurostat regional GDP per capita |
PEPSY Core Paper 1 - Final Hauptfeld Analysis
1 Setup
The final analysis uses data/POLITSOLID_Hauptfeld_weighted_18052026.dta and the population-size calibration weight weight_pop. The cleaned Hauptfeld file contains 8066 interviews across 7 countries. The primary outcome is the preregistered territorial solidarity index, computed as the mean of willingness to pay for redistribution at the municipal, country, and EU levels.
The region match linked NUTS context to 8066 respondents. EQI service quality is available for 8064 respondents and relative regional income for 8066 respondents.
2 Preregistration Coverage
The local preregistration reference is core1_prereg_analysis.qmd. The table checks whether the final Hauptfeld file contains the variables needed for each preregistered hypothesis.
H4 and H5b are partial tests. H4 uses taxnorm and fraudnorm; rednrmdsc is not in the final .dta. H5b uses the available institutional trust items; politician and party trust are not in the final .dta.
3 Index Composition
Most hypotheses are tested with indices. Each item is cleaned for nonresponse, put on a common 0-1 direction where needed, averaged within respondent, and then standardized for the regression models.
| hypothesis | index | components | raw_variables | direction | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | ideology_left_index | Support for redistribution, opposition to smaller government, and left self-placement | poleconred; poleconsmr reversed; leftright reversed | Higher = more economically left/egalitarian | |
| H2a | objective_resources_index | Household income decile and subjective social status | country-specific hincome_*; slfstatus | Higher = more resources | |
| H2b | perceived_capacity_index | Financial resilience and household economic evaluation | fresil; ecohhld | Higher = more perceived capacity | |
| H3a | objective_need_index | Receipt of public payments and unpaid/inactive labor-market status | pubpaypens; pubpaychild; pubpayunemp; pubpaydisab; pubpayrent; pubpaymininc; EmploymentStatusKP | Higher = more objective need/risk | |
| H3b | perceived_risk_index | Risk of not coping, unemployment, inability to work, and family-care need | prskcope; prskunemp; prskunwork; prskcare | Higher = more perceived risk | |
| H4 | norms_legitimacy_index | Citizen tax morale and welfare-fraud norms | taxnorm reversed; fraudnorm reversed | Higher = stronger perceived fair contribution norms | Partial test: rednrmdsc is absent from the Hauptfeld file |
| H5a | social_trust_index | General social trust, perceived fairness, and perceived helpfulness | soctrst reversed; percfair; perchelp | Higher = more generalized social trust | |
| H5b | institutional_trust_index | Trust in parliament, judiciary, local authorities, government, European Commission, and satisfaction with democracy | trstparl; trstjudi; trstmuni; trstgov; trsteucom; satdem | Higher = more institutional trust | Partial test: trstpltcns and trstparts are absent from the Hauptfeld file |
| H5c | service_quality_index | Overall service satisfaction, service quality, local services, fairness, efficiency, helpfulness, and integrity | pssatgen; psqhlth; psqschl; psqtxath; psqtrnsp; psqbnft; psqloc; psefair; pseeffi; psehelp; pseintgrt | Higher = better service evaluations | |
| H6a | regional_service_quality_z | Regional public-service quality | EQI qualityp | Higher = better regional service quality | Context check |
| H6b | relative_regional_income_z | Regional GDP per capita centered within country | Eurostat regional GDP per capita | Higher = richer than the national regional average | Context check; preregistered expected sign is negative |
4 Preregistered Hypotheses
H1 Ideology.More economically left-leaning and egalitarian individuals show higher political solidarity.H2a Objective resources.Individuals with higher objective socioeconomic resources show higher political solidarity.H2b Perceived capacity.Net of objective resources, individuals with higher perceived capacity to contribute show higher political solidarity.H3a Objective need/risk.Individuals with higher exposure to social risks show higher political solidarity.H3b Perceived risk.Net of objective indicators, individuals with higher perceived personal risk show higher political solidarity.H4 Norms and perceived contribution.Individuals who believe that others contribute fairly show higher political solidarity.H5a Generalized social trust.Individuals with higher generalized social trust show higher political solidarity.H5b Institutional trust.Individuals with higher institutional trust show higher political solidarity.H5c Public-service evaluations.Individuals with better public-service evaluations show higher political solidarity.H6a Regional service quality.Residents of regions with higher public service quality show higher political solidarity.H6b Relative regional prosperity.Residents of relatively better-off regions show lower territorial solidarity.
5 Testing Strategy
The primary tests are weighted OLS models with weight_pop, country fixed effects, and the preregistered respondent controls. Block A covers ideology, resources, capacity, need, perceived risk, and the risk-by-capacity interaction. Block B covers norms, social trust, institutional trust, and public-service evaluations. The full model combines both blocks.
I treat a hypothesis as confirmed when the weighted full-model estimate points in the preregistered direction and its 95% confidence interval excludes zero. Directional but imprecise estimates are mixed. Wrong-direction or near-zero estimates are not confirmed. H6a and H6b are reported as contextual checks.
6 Descriptive Checks
The plot bins each focal individual-level predictor into quintiles. It is a visual trace of the data, not the hypothesis test.
7 Weighted Main Models
| Characteristic |
Block A
|
Block B
|
Full
|
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 95% CI | p-value | Beta | 95% CI | p-value | Beta | 95% CI | p-value | |
| H1 Left ideology | 0.391 | 0.361, 0.421 | <0.001 | 0.307 | 0.277, 0.337 | <0.001 | |||
| H2a Objective resources | 0.072 | 0.021, 0.122 | 0.006 | 0.018 | -0.029, 0.066 | 0.452 | |||
| H2b Perceived capacity | 0.151 | 0.112, 0.191 | <0.001 | 0.064 | 0.027, 0.102 | <0.001 | |||
| H3a Objective need/risk | 0.056 | 0.019, 0.092 | 0.003 | 0.036 | 0.001, 0.072 | 0.042 | |||
| H3b Perceived risk | -0.003 | -0.041, 0.034 | 0.858 | 0.025 | -0.010, 0.059 | 0.158 | |||
| H3 Risk x Capacity interaction | 0.005 | -0.023, 0.033 | 0.718 | 0.009 | -0.017, 0.036 | 0.490 | |||
| H4 Norms and legitimacy | 0.093 | 0.061, 0.125 | <0.001 | 0.063 | 0.029, 0.096 | <0.001 | |||
| H5a Social trust | 0.201 | 0.162, 0.240 | <0.001 | 0.169 | 0.131, 0.207 | <0.001 | |||
| H5b Institutional trust | 0.188 | 0.145, 0.232 | <0.001 | 0.150 | 0.107, 0.192 | <0.001 | |||
| H5c Service evaluations | 0.166 | 0.121, 0.212 | <0.001 | 0.134 | 0.090, 0.179 | <0.001 | |||
| Abbreviation: CI = Confidence Interval | |||||||||
| model | n | r_squared | adj_r_squared |
|---|---|---|---|
| Block A | 6579 | 0.268 | 0.266 |
| Block B | 6730 | 0.284 | 0.282 |
| Full | 6475 | 0.380 | 0.378 |
8 Context Checks
The H6 models add matched regional indicators to the full individual-level model. Regional GDP is centered within country.
| term_label | estimate | conf.low | conf.high | p.value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H6a Regional service quality | -0.005 | -0.063 | 0.053 | 0.870 |
| H6b Relative regional prosperity | 0.025 | -0.004 | 0.053 | 0.093 |
9 Hypothesis Assessment
| hypothesis | hypothesis_text | how_tested | verdict | evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | More economically left-leaning and egalitarian individuals show higher political solidarity. | Weighted full model using the standardized ideology index. | Confirmed | beta = 0.307, 95% CI [0.277, 0.337], p = <0.001 |
| H2a | Individuals with higher objective socioeconomic resources show higher political solidarity. | Weighted full model using income and subjective social status. | Mixed | beta = 0.018, 95% CI [-0.029, 0.066], p = 0.452 |
| H2b | Individuals who perceive higher personal capacity to contribute show higher political solidarity. | Weighted full model using financial resilience and household economic evaluations. | Confirmed | beta = 0.064, 95% CI [0.027, 0.102], p = <0.001 |
| H3a | Individuals with higher exposure to social risks show higher political solidarity. | Weighted full model using public-payment receipt and labor-market inactivity. | Confirmed | beta = 0.036, 95% CI [0.001, 0.072], p = 0.042 |
| H3b | Individuals who perceive higher personal risk and future need show higher political solidarity. | Weighted full model using perceived risk plus the preregistered risk x capacity interaction. | Mixed | beta = 0.025, 95% CI [-0.01, 0.059], p = 0.158; interaction beta = 0.009, p = 0.490 |
| H4 | Individuals who believe that others contribute fairly show higher political solidarity. | Partial weighted test using taxnorm and fraudnorm; rednrmdsc is unavailable in the final data. | Confirmed | beta = 0.063, 95% CI [0.029, 0.096], p = <0.001 |
| H5a | Individuals with higher generalized social trust show higher political solidarity. | Weighted full model using social trust, perceived fairness, and perceived helpfulness. | Confirmed | beta = 0.169, 95% CI [0.131, 0.207], p = <0.001 |
| H5b | Individuals with higher institutional trust show higher political solidarity. | Partial weighted test using available institutional trust items; politicians and parties are unavailable. | Confirmed | beta = 0.15, 95% CI [0.107, 0.192], p = <0.001 |
| H5c | Individuals with more positive public-service evaluations show higher political solidarity. | Weighted full model using public-service satisfaction, quality, and procedural evaluations. | Confirmed | beta = 0.134, 95% CI [0.09, 0.179], p = <0.001 |
| H6a | Residents of regions with higher public service quality show higher political solidarity. | Weighted full + context model using EQI qualityp when matched. | Not confirmed | beta = -0.005, 95% CI [-0.063, 0.053], p = 0.870 |
| H6b | Residents of relatively better-off regions show lower territorial solidarity. | Weighted full + context model using within-country centered regional GDP. | Not confirmed | beta = 0.025, 95% CI [-0.004, 0.053], p = 0.093 |
Short version: H1 confirmed; H2a mixed; H2b confirmed; H3a confirmed; H3b mixed; H4 confirmed; H5a confirmed; H5b confirmed; H5c confirmed; H6a not confirmed; H6b not confirmed.
The table is intentionally terse. It reports the weighted full-model result for each hypothesis and flags the two partial tests directly in the how_tested column.
10 Secondary Outcomes
The preregistration also points to solidarity subdimensions. These checks repeat the weighted full model for deserving targets, migrant-targeted solidarity, and the deserving-minus-migrant gap.
| Characteristic |
Deserving solidarity
|
Migrant solidarity
|
Welfare chauvinism
|
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 95% CI | p-value | Beta | 95% CI | p-value | Beta | 95% CI | p-value | |
| H1 Left ideology | 0.220 | 0.191, 0.248 | <0.001 | 0.444 | 0.408, 0.481 | <0.001 | -0.225 | -0.259, -0.190 | <0.001 |
| H2a Objective resources | 0.066 | 0.019, 0.112 | 0.005 | -0.022 | -0.081, 0.036 | 0.454 | 0.088 | 0.034, 0.142 | 0.001 |
| H2b Perceived capacity | 0.019 | -0.015, 0.054 | 0.267 | 0.092 | 0.043, 0.141 | <0.001 | -0.072 | -0.122, -0.023 | 0.004 |
| H3a Objective need/risk | 0.022 | -0.010, 0.054 | 0.180 | 0.077 | 0.036, 0.117 | <0.001 | -0.055 | -0.093, -0.016 | 0.006 |
| H3b Perceived risk | 0.002 | -0.031, 0.034 | 0.926 | 0.033 | -0.008, 0.073 | 0.111 | -0.031 | -0.068, 0.005 | 0.095 |
| H4 Norms and legitimacy | 0.072 | 0.036, 0.107 | <0.001 | 0.006 | -0.032, 0.044 | 0.760 | 0.066 | 0.032, 0.100 | <0.001 |
| H5a Social trust | 0.128 | 0.092, 0.163 | <0.001 | 0.222 | 0.178, 0.266 | <0.001 | -0.094 | -0.141, -0.048 | <0.001 |
| H5b Institutional trust | 0.007 | -0.034, 0.048 | 0.736 | 0.207 | 0.157, 0.257 | <0.001 | -0.200 | -0.248, -0.152 | <0.001 |
| H5c Service evaluations | 0.104 | 0.062, 0.146 | <0.001 | 0.111 | 0.062, 0.161 | <0.001 | -0.007 | -0.055, 0.040 | 0.765 |
| H3 Risk x Capacity interaction | -0.012 | -0.041, 0.016 | 0.397 | 0.011 | -0.025, 0.046 | 0.555 | -0.023 | -0.059, 0.013 | 0.215 |
| Abbreviation: CI = Confidence Interval | |||||||||
11 Appendix
11.1 Outcome Distribution
11.2 Missingness
| variable | meaning | n_total | n_missing | pct_missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| income_equiv | Household income equivalized by square-root household size | 8066 | 902 | 11.2 |
| perceived_risk_index | Perceived risk of future need or deterioration index | 8066 | 346 | 4.3 |
| analysis_weight | Primary analysis weight copied from weight_pop | 8066 | 282 | 3.5 |
| norms_legitimacy_index | Norms and perceived contribution index; partial Hauptfeld version uses tax morale and welfare fraud norms | 8066 | 181 | 2.2 |
| perceived_capacity_index | Perceived personal capacity to contribute index | 8066 | 94 | 1.2 |
| ideology_left_index | Economic left/egalitarian ideology index | 8066 | 90 | 1.1 |
| gender_binary | Gender indicator: 0 male, 1 female | 8066 | 43 | 0.5 |
| migrant_background | Respondent born outside country of interview | 8066 | 40 | 0.5 |
| institutional_trust_index | Institutional trust index; partial Hauptfeld version excludes politicians and parties | 8066 | 36 | 0.4 |
| education_level | Highest education level | 8066 | 17 | 0.2 |
| objective_need_index | Objective exposure to social need/risk index | 8066 | 8 | 0.1 |
| solidarity_territorial | Territorial solidarity index: willingness to pay for redistribution at municipal, country, and EU levels | 8066 | 0 | 0.0 |
| objective_resources_index | Objective socioeconomic resources index | 8066 | 0 | 0.0 |
| social_trust_index | Generalized social trust index | 8066 | 0 | 0.0 |
| service_quality_index | Public-service satisfaction, quality, fairness, efficiency, helpfulness, and integrity index | 8066 | 0 | 0.0 |
| age | Respondent age | 8066 | 0 | 0.0 |
The weighted full model retains 6475 of 8066 respondents after listwise deletion (80.3%).