Methodology for FTE Estimation – ARI CRTA Research Package

Prepared by: [Nai], JR team Date: [5/18]

Methodology

This document summarizes the methodology used to rigorously estimate Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) requirements for GS-12/13 scientist/statistician labor in the ARI CRTA Research Package, specifically for the “Job Requirements Extraction from Archival Texts” project. The approach is designed to ensure resource estimates are defensible, transparent, and aligned with the actual scope of work described in the project narrative.

1. Anchor Project Calibration

ORAB Benchmark (Officer Rebranching Assessment Battery)

FTE: 0.625 FTE/year (≈1,110 productive hours/year, ≈21.3 hours/week)
Scope: Item development, SME panels, primary data collection, psychometric analysis, database design, stakeholder engagement, technical reporting, administrative overhead.

AWJA Benchmark (Army Wide Job Analysis)

FTE: 0.9 FTE/year (Year 2024)
Scope: Army-wide job analysis, covering all branches and positions, extensive SME engagement, large-scale data collection, multi-system integration, comprehensive reporting and transition planning.

Interpretation:
- ORAB (0.625 FTE) is a “full-lifecycle assessment project” benchmark.
- AWJA (0.9 FTE) is a “large-scale, multi-branch job analysis” benchmark.
- Projects approaching AWJA scope should be budgeted closer to 0.9 FTE/year.

2. Task-Based FTE Estimation Model

Each project is decomposed into the following labor categories:

A. Primary Data Collection (e.g., SME panels, surveys)
B. Statistical/Analytical Complexity (e.g., LLM/NLP, psychometrics)
C. Product Development (e.g., applications, assessments)
D. Data Engineering (e.g., database, pipeline development)
E. Stakeholder Coordination (e.g., transition planning, briefings)
F. Contract Oversight (COR/COTR duties)
G. Documentation Burden (e.g., reports, manuals)
H. Novelty/Ambiguity (degree of methodological innovation)

Each category is scored 0–5 based on intensity. The total score is mapped to FTE using the anchor projects: - ORAB: 31 points = 0.625 FTE (conversion ≈ 0.020 FTE per point) - AWJA: 45 points = 0.9 FTE (conversion ≈ 0.020 FTE per point)

3. Detailed Hour-by-Hour Decomposition (Example Project:Job Requirements Extraction Project)

Take One Project for Example: FY27: $400K Aptima Contract + Internal GS-13 Labor

Detailed Rating excise for each project plz refer to excel file attached

Task Categories and Estimated FTE: - Contract oversight (COR duties): ~0.10 FTE - LLM/NLP development and prompt engineering: ~0.20 FTE - SME validation (panel recruitment, facilitation, analysis): ~0.08 FTE - Prototype/application development: ~0.07 FTE - Stakeholder engagement (HRC, branch proponents): ~0.04 FTE - Documentation and reporting: ~0.05 FTE - Administrative overhead: ~0.10 FTE

Total estimated FTE for FY27: 0.64 FTE
Current plan: 0.10 FTE
Gap: 6.4x underestimated

Similar decompositions for FY28 and FY29 show the project is 2.6x–2.8x under-resourced in those years.

4. Key Findings and Risks

The current FTE allocation (0.10–0.20 FTE/year) is insufficient to cover contract oversight, scientific development, SME validation, application prototyping, stakeholder engagement, and documentation.
COR duties alone consume the entire 0.10 FTE allocation in FY27.
Without adequate FTE, scientific quality, transition, and compliance risks are significant.
The narrative promises “revolutionary” impact and integration with Army Talent Marketplace, but the resource estimate does not support this scope.

5. Recommended FTE Allocation (Using Job Requirements Extraction Project as an Example)

Fiscal Year	Current	Recommended	Key Drivers
FY27	$400K + 0.10 FTE	$400K + 0.55–0.65 FTE	COR (0.10) + LLM development (0.20) + SME validation (0.08) + prototype (0.07) + stakeholders (0.04) + documentation (0.05) + admin (0.05–0.10)
FY28	0.20 FTE	0.45–0.55 FTE	Contract closeout + expanded branch validation + application refinement + HRC integration prep
FY29	0.10 FTE	0.25–0.30 FTE	Final validation + HRC transition execution + sustainment

Minimum viable allocation:
- FY27: 0.30 FTE (single branch pilot only) - FY28: 0.35 FTE (limited expansion) - FY29: 0.20 FTE (transition only)

6. Methodology Applicability

This task-based, category-scoring methodology can be applied to all projects in the portfolio for transparent, defensible FTE estimation.
It ensures that labor estimates are aligned with the actual deliverables and compliance requirements.
Anchor projects (ORAB, AWJA) provide clear benchmarks for scaling FTE based on project complexity and scope.

7. BLUF

Adoption of this approach will improve credibility and defensibility of resource requests to leadership and external reviewers.

Prepared for:
[RUC], [ST & ARI ldrship]
[Chain of Command/COC]

Attachments:
- Detailed task breakdown tables (available upon request) - Category scoring matrix (available upon request)