Part 1: Voting Patterns

Table 1: Share of RG Generations Across Surveys

Share of RG Generations Across Surveys
rg_generation NES 1971 NES 1996 NES 1999 NES 2004 NES 2009 NES 2014 NES 2019 Dales 2024
Nehruvian 91.4 24.0 20.6 14.1 9.9 6.3 4.0 1.7
Emergency 8.6 42.0 41.5 32.6 29.3 25.7 22.4 15.0
Liberalisation 0.0 34.1 37.9 46.5 43.7 37.7 35.4 31.8
Aspirational 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 17.1 29.8 30.7 31.2
Assertive 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 7.6 20.4

Table 2: How Each Generation Voted (Rows Sum to 100)

How Each RG Generation Voted (Rows Sum to 100 Within Each Survey)
NES 1996
NES 1999
NES 2004
NES 2009
NES 2014
NES 2019
Dales 2024
rg_generation NES 1996_INC NES 1996_BJP NES 1996_Others NES 1996_NA / No Response NES 1999_INC NES 1999_BJP NES 1999_Others NES 1999_NA / No Response NES 2004_INC NES 2004_BJP NES 2004_Others NES 2004_NA / No Response NES 2009_INC NES 2009_BJP NES 2009_Others NES 2009_NA / No Response NES 2014_INC NES 2014_BJP NES 2014_Others NES 2014_NA / No Response NES 2019_INC NES 2019_BJP NES 2019_Others NES 2019_NA / No Response Dales 2024_INC Dales 2024_BJP Dales 2024_Others Dales 2024_NA / No Response
Nehruvian 29.1 18.2 38.2 14.6 29.9 19.3 39.3 11.4 28.0 20.6 32.6 18.9 28.8 13.7 32.9 24.6 21.8 24.4 51.0 2.8 18.7 25.8 43.5 12.1 26.2 27.4 21.8 24.6
Emergency 29.3 20.2 38.3 12.2 28.8 18.4 42.3 10.5 29.4 21.8 32.2 16.6 29.2 15.9 34.5 20.4 23.7 29.6 44.9 1.8 18.7 29.7 39.2 12.4 25.5 29.3 27.9 17.2
Liberalisation 25.4 23.1 36.6 14.9 27.4 21.3 40.7 10.6 28.6 22.1 32.1 17.3 27.3 16.3 35.1 21.3 21.4 32.1 44.4 2.1 19.0 31.1 37.8 12.1 25.3 30.2 28.1 16.4
Aspirational NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 25.7 22.0 31.7 20.7 26.1 16.6 32.4 24.9 21.8 33.3 43.4 1.5 18.0 32.7 38.7 10.6 25.6 31.4 27.9 15.0
Assertive NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 23.7 29.8 46.5 0.0 18.8 33.0 37.8 10.5 25.1 33.2 25.4 16.3
Anxious NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN

Table 3: Contribution of Each Generation to Total Survey Vote

Contribution of RG Generations — Row adds up to share of generation in that survey year
NES 1996
NES 1999
NES 2004
NES 2009
NES 2014
NES 2019
Dales 2024
rg_generation NES 1996_INC NES 1996_BJP NES 1996_Others NES 1996_NA / No Response NES 1999_INC NES 1999_BJP NES 1999_Others NES 1999_NA / No Response NES 2004_INC NES 2004_BJP NES 2004_Others NES 2004_NA / No Response NES 2009_INC NES 2009_BJP NES 2009_Others NES 2009_NA / No Response NES 2014_INC NES 2014_BJP NES 2014_Others NES 2014_NA / No Response NES 2019_INC NES 2019_BJP NES 2019_Others NES 2019_NA / No Response Dales 2024_INC Dales 2024_BJP Dales 2024_Others Dales 2024_NA / No Response
Nehruvian 7.0 4.4 9.2 3.5 6.2 4.0 8.1 2.4 3.9 2.9 4.6 2.7 2.9 1.4 3.3 2.4 1.4 1.5 3.2 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4
Emergency 12.3 8.5 16.1 5.1 12.0 7.6 17.6 4.4 9.6 7.1 10.5 5.4 8.5 4.7 10.1 6.0 6.1 7.6 11.6 0.5 4.2 6.6 8.8 2.8 3.8 4.4 4.2 2.6
Liberalisation 8.6 7.9 12.4 5.1 10.4 8.1 15.4 4.0 13.3 10.3 14.9 8.1 11.9 7.1 15.3 9.3 8.1 12.1 16.7 0.8 6.7 11.0 13.4 4.3 8.0 9.6 8.9 5.2
Aspirational 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.4 4.5 2.8 5.5 4.3 6.5 9.9 12.9 0.5 5.5 10.1 11.9 3.3 8.0 9.8 8.7 4.7
Assertive 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.4 2.5 2.9 0.8 5.1 6.8 5.2 3.3
Anxious 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Part 2: Logit Regression — Generational Effects on Voting

Table 4: INC vs Others — Odds Ratios by Model

Table 4: INC vs Others — Odds Ratios by RG Generation (Ref: Emergency)
No FE
State FE
Survey FE
State + Survey FE
Generation OR CI Low CI High OR CI Low CI High OR CI Low CI High OR CI Low CI High
Nehruvian 1.026 0.977 1.077 1.033 0.978 1.091 0.982 0.934 1.031 0.981 0.929 1.037
Liberalisation 0.95** 0.919 0.983 0.922*** 0.887 0.957 0.955** 0.923 0.988 0.94** 0.905 0.977
Aspirational 0.811*** 0.777 0.847 0.764*** 0.727 0.802 0.955* 0.912 1.000 0.909*** 0.863 0.958
Assertive 0.691*** 0.608 0.784 0.609*** 0.527 0.703 0.999 0.876 1.140 0.875. 0.754 1.015
Note:
OR = Odds Ratio. . p<0.1 * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001. Reference: Emergency generation.

Table 5: BJP vs Others — Odds Ratios by Model

Table 5: BJP vs Others — Odds Ratios by RG Generation (Ref: Emergency)
No FE
State FE
Survey FE
State + Survey FE
Generation OR CI Low CI High OR CI Low CI High OR CI Low CI High OR CI Low CI High
Nehruvian 0.871*** 0.825 0.919 0.867*** 0.812 0.924 0.895*** 0.847 0.945 0.883*** 0.827 0.942
Liberalisation 1.085*** 1.048 1.124 1.057* 1.013 1.102 1.073*** 1.035 1.111 1.051* 1.008 1.097
Aspirational 1.241*** 1.189 1.295 1.122*** 1.066 1.181 1.137*** 1.087 1.189 1.044 0.990 1.102
Assertive 1.459*** 1.308 1.627 1.452*** 1.274 1.655 1.146* 1.024 1.283 1.061 0.927 1.215
Note:
OR = Odds Ratio. . p<0.1 * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001. Reference: Emergency generation.

Figure 1: Coefficient Plots — Log-Odds Across Model Specifications

Figure 2: Average Marginal Effects — State + Survey FE Model

Average Marginal Effects on Vote Probability (Reference: Emergency generation)
Generation INC vs Others BJP vs Others
Nehruvian -0.4 pp (-2, 1.3) n.s. -2 pp (-3.4, -0.6) **
Liberalisation -1.2 pp (-2, -0.3) ** 0.8 pp (-0.2, 1.8) n.s.
Aspirational -1.8 pp (-3, -0.6) ** 0.7 pp (-0.7, 2.1) n.s.
Assertive -2.5 pp (-7, 2) n.s. 1 pp (-2.4, 4.3) n.s.
Note:
Entries are average marginal effects in percentage points with 95% confidence intervals in parentheses. State and survey fixed effects included; standard errors clustered by state.