Data Sources

All mineral import data comes from the U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (USGS MCS 2026). Import source percentages reflect 2021-24 averages. The full citation is:

U.S. Geological Survey, 2026, Mineral commodity summaries 2026 (ver. 1.2, April 2026): U.S. Geological Survey, 222 p. https://doi.org/10.3133/mcs2026

Country Classification

Each source country is classified as Ally, Competitor, or Neutral using the following definitions:

Reliability Scoring

Each source country is scored on six factors. Each factor is rated 1 to 3 where 1 is high risk and 3 is low risk.

Scores are summed to a total out of 18. Countries scoring 15 to 18 are Low risk. Countries scoring 9 to 14 are Medium risk. Countries scoring 6 to 8 are High risk.

Vulnerability Index

Each mineral receives a vulnerability index score calculated as:

(Net import reliance / 100) x (Dominant mine country share / 100) x (19 - source country reliability score)

This combines three factors into one number. A mineral scores high when the US is heavily import dependent, supply is concentrated in one country, and that country is unreliable. The index is not a definitive risk score. It is a comparative ranking tool to identify which minerals warrant the most policy attention.

The map shows where the U.S. sources its 50 critical minerals. Red countries are geopolitical competitors. Blue countries are allies. Orange countries are neutral. China and Russia dominate the eastern hemisphere. Reliable ally suppliers are concentrated in North America, South America, and Australia. Most of Africa and Central Asia, where significant mineral reserves exist, falls in the neutral or unstable category.

China controls mine production for 30 of the 50 critical minerals on the 2022 list. Gallium stands alone at 99%. The heavy rare earth elements cluster at 90%, all from China. Niobium is the one outlier at 93% from Brazil, an ally. The pattern is clear: high concentration is almost always tied to a competitor or neutral state.

China poses the broadest sector risk. A Chinese export restriction would affect 6 defense minerals, 5 medical minerals, 4 technology minerals, and 3 energy minerals simultaneously. The DRC poses a focused risk to energy supply through cobalt. Russia’s primary exposure is in industry through palladium. No other country comes close to China’s cross-sector reach.

The vulnerability index combines three factors: U.S. import reliance, single-country mine concentration, and source country reliability. Heavy rare earth elements score the highest at 9.9 because the U.S. is 100% import reliant, China controls 90% of mine production, and China is a high-risk source. Graphite and Bismuth follow closely. Every mineral in the top 15 is sourced primarily from a competitor. Niobium is the only top-ranked mineral sourced from an ally.

Reference Catalog: All 50 Critical Minerals
Mineral Top_Import_Source Import_Share Second_Source Second_Share Dominant_Mine_Country Mine_Share Net_Import_Reliance Classification Vulnerability_Index
Aluminum Canada 56% United Arab Emirates 8% Australia 28% 100 Ally 0.28
Antimony China 55% Belgium 12% China 48% >50 Competitor 3.96
Arsenic China 87% Morocco 8% China 70% 100 Competitor 7.70
Barite India 36% China 30% China 37% >50 Neutral 1.66
Beryllium Kazakhstan 31% Latvia 25% United States 90% 11 Neutral 0.79
Bismuth China 68% South Korea 20% China 80% >95 Competitor 8.36
Cerium China 71% Malaysia 13% China 69% 67 Competitor 5.09
Cesium Canada 100% NA N/A Canada 70% 100 Ally 0.70
Chromium South Africa 34% Kazakhstan 12% South Africa 44% >50 Neutral 1.98
Cobalt Norway 26% Finland 16% DRC 73% >50 Ally 0.55
Dysprosium China 100% NA N/A China 90% 100 Competitor 9.90
Erbium Germany 51% China 40% China 90% 100 Ally 0.90
Europium China 100% NA N/A China 90% 100 Competitor 9.90
Fluorspar Mexico 62% Vietnam 14% China 64% 100 Neutral 3.20
Gadolinium China 100% NA N/A China 90% 100 Competitor 9.90
Gallium Canada 28% Japan 22% China 99% 100 Ally 0.99
Germanium Belgium 41% China 23% China N/A >50 Ally NA
Graphite China 43% Canada 13% China 78% 100 Competitor 8.58
Hafnium France 72% Germany 10% Australia N/A 100 Ally NA
Holmium China 100% NA N/A China 90% 100 Competitor 9.90
Indium South Korea 25% Japan 22% China 70% 100 Ally 0.70
Iridium South Africa 90% Russia 6% South Africa 80% 100 Neutral 4.80
Lanthanum China 71% Malaysia 13% China 69% 67 Competitor 5.09
Lithium Chile 54% Argentina 43% Australia 37% >50 Ally 1.39
Lutetium China 100% NA N/A China 90% 100 Competitor 9.90
Magnesium Israel 20% Canada 15% China 85% 100 Ally 1.70
Manganese Gabon 64% South Africa 24% South Africa 36% 100 Neutral 2.52
Neodymium China 71% Malaysia 13% China 69% 67 Competitor 5.09
Nickel Canada 44% Norway 11% Indonesia 67% 41 Ally 0.27
Niobium Brazil 67% Canada 28% Brazil 93% 100 Ally 4.65
Palladium South Africa 37% Russia 36% Russia 40% 100 Neutral 2.40
Platinum South Africa 49% Belgium 10% South Africa 70% 100 Neutral 4.20
Praseodymium China 71% Malaysia 13% China 69% 67 Competitor 5.09
Rhodium South Africa 80% Russia 10% South Africa 80% 100 Neutral 4.80
Rubidium NA NA% NA N/A Canada N/A 100 NA NA
Ruthenium South Africa 93% Russia 4% South Africa 80% 100 Neutral 4.80
Samarium China 71% Malaysia 13% China 69% 67 Competitor 5.09
Scandium Japan 89% China 11% China 66% 100 Ally 0.66
Tantalum China 22% Australia 14% DRC 47% 100 Competitor 5.17
Tellurium Canada 64% Philippines 14% China 50% >50 Ally 0.38
Terbium China 100% NA N/A China 90% 100 Competitor 9.90
Thulium China 100% NA N/A China 90% 100 Competitor 9.90
Tin Peru 31% Bolivia 27% China 28% >50 Neutral 1.26
Titanium South Africa 26% Canada 16% South Africa 26% >50 Neutral 1.17
Tungsten China 26% Germany 14% China 79% >50 Competitor 6.52
Vanadium Canada 34% Brazil 13% China 57% >50 Ally 0.43
Ytterbium China 86% Germany 4% China 90% 100 Competitor 9.90
Yttrium China 70% Germany 11% China 70% 100 Competitor 7.70
Zinc Canada 56% Mexico 15% China 34% 25 Ally 0.09
Zirconium South Africa 48% Australia 35% Australia 37% >50 Neutral 1.66