Task 3

Task 4

Research Question :

  • What are the features differentiate successful / Unsuccessful / Ongoing Journeys + general observations

Definitions :

  • Successful Journey: A journey that eventually ends with an order_shipped event. Regardless of how long the journey takes, if an order is shipped, the journey is considered successful.

  • Unsuccessful Journey: A journey that does not end with an order_shipped event and has had no activity for at least 60 days before the cutoff date.

  • Ongoing (Incomplete) Journey: A journey that has not ended with an order_shipped event, but whose most recent activity occurred within 60 days of the cutoff date, meaning the final outcome is still unknown.

Report :

first to last action

  • Despite the typical user being on the cite for 134 days, successful users tend to be on the platform for much less time (48 days) – Unsuccessful for 170 days.

    • Meaning Journey duration varies substantially by outcome type.

Time Between Actions

  • successful journeys have the shortest average time between actions (about 0.9 days on avr), suggesting that users who eventually purchase tend to move through the process relatively quickly.

    • successful journeys median Time Between Actions is only 90 seconds (1min, 30 sec), indicating dramatic skew

    • Indicating successful journeys typically make quick successive actions

    • Variability : successful journeys have a SD of 6 day – indicating a wide variability in user enagagment

  • Unsuccessful journeys have much longer gaps between actions (about 5.6 days on avr), suggesting that disengaged users interact far less frequently over time.

    • Unsuccessful journeys median Time Between Actions is only 120 seconds (2min), indicating dramatic skew

    • Indicating Unsuccessful journeys typically make slower but still, successive actions

    • Variability : Unsuccessful journeys have a SD of 17 day – indicating dramatically more variability than successful journeys – suggesting that Unsuccessful journeys are far more likely to have longer periods of time of being off the website for longer periods of time. Suggesting those whom are successful journeys stay more consistently engaged

Stage Counts

  • Across all journey types, the most common stage is First Purchase, indicating that most user activity centers around browsing, cart activity, and checkout behavior.

  • successful journeys show substantially more activity in the Downpayment (533,281 > 24,692 ) and Credit Account stages, suggesting these are strong signals of eventual conversion.

  • Unsuccessful journeys have a much larger proportion of NA and Apply for Credit events, suggesting many users disengage before reaching later purchasing stages.

  • The Order Shipped stage appears only in successful journeys, as expected, and represents the final conversion event.

    • Sanity Check^

Final Stage

  • Nearly all successful journeys end in the Order Shipped stage (about 99.5%), which confirms that successful users progress fully through the purchase funnel.

    • Sanity Check^

  • Ongoing journeys most commonly end in the First Purchase stage (about 47.6%), suggesting many active users are still browsing, shopping, or checking out.

  • Unsuccessful journeys overwhelmingly end on events with missing (NA) stage labels (about 72%), indicating that many users disengage during promotional or uncategorized interactions before progressing further.

  • Among categorized stages, Unsuccessful journeys most often stop during the First Purchase and Apply for Credit stages, suggesting that many users drop out before completing payment or shipment-related steps.

  • Very few Unsuccessful or Ongoing journeys reach the Downpayment or Credit Account stages, implying that progressing deeper into the funnel is strongly associated with eventual success.

Path Analysis using Stages

  • successful journeys tend to follow structured progression paths that move through Apply for Credit, First Purchase, Credit Account, and Downpayment before ultimately reaching Order Shipped.

  • Both Ongoing and Unsuccessful journeys are heavily concentrated in early funnel stages, especially Apply for Credit and First Purchase, suggesting many users never progress deeper into the purchasing pipeline & Unsuccessful users are those whom are repeatedly rejected after applying for credit.

  • Repeated sequences such as long chains of Apply for Credit indicate that many users repeatedly interact with credit-related activities without converting.

  • The presence of Discover stages is more common among Ongoing and Unsuccessful journeys, suggesting that many users remain in exploratory or marketing-related behaviors rather than advancing toward purchase completion.

Down payment Stage

  • Nearly all successful journeys (99.3%) reached the Downpayment stage, suggesting that progressing to downpayment activity is one of the strongest indicators of eventual order shipment success.

  • Very few Ongoing (2.4%) or Unsuccessful (1.7%) journeys reached the Downpayment stage, indicating that most users who fail to convert never progress that deeply into the purchasing funnel.

  • Downpayment stage appears to strongly separate successful journeys from non-successful journeys and is likely a highly predictive feature for future models.