Introduction

This project looks at the 2024 MLB standings through Pythagorean expected win proportion. Instead of judging teams only by wins and losses, this gives another way to see how strong they were based on runs scored and runs allowed.

In this formula, RS is runs scored and RA is runs allowed. The goal is to compare each team’s actual winning percentage to what their record was expected to look like based on their run profile.

\[ \text{Pythagorean Expected Win Proportion} = \frac{RS^{1.86}}{RS^{1.86} + RA^{1.86}} \]

In this formula, RS means runs scored and RA means runs allowed. The main idea is to see whether each team’s actual record matched its underlying run profile.

Division Results

The table below ranks each division by Pythagorean expected wins.

2024 MLB Pythagorean Expected Win Proportion by Division
Teams are ranked within each division by Pythagorean expected wins
Pyth Rk Team Act. W Pyth W Pyth L Act. - Pyth W Actual Win% Pyth Win%
AL Central
1 Cleveland Guardians 92 90.0 72.0 2.0 0.571 0.556
2 Kansas City Royals 86 89.8 72.2 −3.8 0.531 0.555
3 Detroit Tigers 86 84.7 77.3 1.3 0.531 0.523
4 Minnesota Twins 82 82.7 79.3 −0.7 0.506 0.510
5 Chicago White Sox 41 47.2 114.8 −6.2 0.253 0.291
AL East
1 New York Yankees 94 95.8 66.2 −1.8 0.580 0.591
2 Baltimore Orioles 91 90.8 71.2 0.2 0.562 0.560
3 Boston Red Sox 81 81.0 81.0 0.0 0.500 0.500
4 Tampa Bay Rays 80 73.3 88.7 6.7 0.494 0.452
5 Toronto Blue Jays 74 72.4 89.6 1.6 0.457 0.447
AL West
1 Houston Astros 88 91.5 70.5 −3.5 0.547 0.565
2 Seattle Mariners 85 90.5 71.5 −5.5 0.525 0.559
3 Texas Rangers 78 74.2 87.8 3.8 0.481 0.458
4 Athletics 69 68.9 93.1 0.1 0.426 0.426
5 Los Angeles Angels 63 64.1 97.9 −1.1 0.389 0.395
NL Central
1 Milwaukee Brewers 93 94.6 67.4 −1.6 0.574 0.584
2 Chicago Cubs 83 88.0 74.0 −5.0 0.512 0.543
3 Cincinnati Reds 77 81.0 81.0 −4.0 0.475 0.500
4 St. Louis Cardinals 83 75.7 86.3 7.3 0.512 0.467
5 Pittsburgh Pirates 76 72.4 89.6 3.6 0.469 0.447
NL East
1 Philadelphia Phillies 95 92.8 69.2 2.2 0.586 0.573
2 Atlanta Braves 89 92.2 69.8 −3.2 0.549 0.569
3 New York Mets 89 87.7 74.3 1.3 0.549 0.541
4 Washington Nationals 71 70.8 91.2 0.2 0.438 0.437
5 Miami Marlins 62 59.8 102.2 2.2 0.383 0.369
NL West
1 Los Angeles Dodgers 98 96.9 65.1 1.1 0.605 0.598
2 San Diego Padres 93 91.2 70.8 1.8 0.574 0.563
3 Arizona Diamondbacks 89 89.7 72.3 −0.7 0.549 0.554
4 San Francisco Giants 80 81.0 81.0 −1.0 0.494 0.500
5 Colorado Rockies 61 58.6 103.4 2.4 0.377 0.362
Pyth Rk = division rank using Pythagorean expected wins. Act. - Pyth W = actual wins minus Pythagorean expected wins.

Visual Comparison

This visual compares actual win proportion to Pythagorean expected win proportion. The dashed line shows where actual performance equals expected performance.

Full MLB Table

The table below ranks all MLB teams by Pythagorean expected wins.

2024 MLB Teams Ranked by Pythagorean Expected Wins
All teams combined
Pyth Rk Team Act. W Pyth W Pyth L Act. W - Pyth W Actual Win% Pyth Win%
1 Los Angeles Dodgers 98 96.9 65.1 1.1 0.605 0.598
2 New York Yankees 94 95.8 66.2 −1.8 0.580 0.591
3 Milwaukee Brewers 93 94.6 67.4 −1.6 0.574 0.584
4 Philadelphia Phillies 95 92.8 69.2 2.2 0.586 0.573
5 Atlanta Braves 89 92.2 69.8 −3.2 0.549 0.569
6 Houston Astros 88 91.5 70.5 −3.5 0.547 0.565
7 San Diego Padres 93 91.2 70.8 1.8 0.574 0.563
8 Baltimore Orioles 91 90.8 71.2 0.2 0.562 0.560
9 Seattle Mariners 85 90.5 71.5 −5.5 0.525 0.559
10 Cleveland Guardians 92 90.0 72.0 2.0 0.571 0.556
11 Kansas City Royals 86 89.8 72.2 −3.8 0.531 0.555
12 Arizona Diamondbacks 89 89.7 72.3 −0.7 0.549 0.554
13 Chicago Cubs 83 88.0 74.0 −5.0 0.512 0.543
14 New York Mets 89 87.7 74.3 1.3 0.549 0.541
15 Detroit Tigers 86 84.7 77.3 1.3 0.531 0.523
16 Minnesota Twins 82 82.7 79.3 −0.7 0.506 0.510
17 Boston Red Sox 81 81.0 81.0 0.0 0.500 0.500
18 San Francisco Giants 80 81.0 81.0 −1.0 0.494 0.500
19 Cincinnati Reds 77 81.0 81.0 −4.0 0.475 0.500
20 St. Louis Cardinals 83 75.7 86.3 7.3 0.512 0.467
21 Texas Rangers 78 74.2 87.8 3.8 0.481 0.458
22 Tampa Bay Rays 80 73.3 88.7 6.7 0.494 0.452
23 Pittsburgh Pirates 76 72.4 89.6 3.6 0.469 0.447
24 Toronto Blue Jays 74 72.4 89.6 1.6 0.457 0.447
25 Washington Nationals 71 70.8 91.2 0.2 0.438 0.437
26 Athletics 69 68.9 93.1 0.1 0.426 0.426
27 Los Angeles Angels 63 64.1 97.9 −1.1 0.389 0.395
28 Miami Marlins 62 59.8 102.2 2.2 0.383 0.369
29 Colorado Rockies 61 58.6 103.4 2.4 0.377 0.362
30 Chicago White Sox 41 47.2 114.8 −6.2 0.253 0.291
Pyth Rk = MLB rank using Pythagorean expected wins. Act. W - Pyth W = actual wins minus Pythagorean expected wins.

Highest and Lowest Teams

Highest and Lowest Teams
Comparing Pythagorean expected win proportion to actual win proportion
Category Pythagorean Team Pythagorean Win % Actual Team Actual Win % Same?
Highest Los Angeles Dodgers 0.598 Los Angeles Dodgers 0.605 Yes
Lowest Chicago White Sox 0.291 Chicago White Sox 0.253 Yes

Summary

The Dodgers had the highest Pythagorean expected win proportion in MLB at 0.594. That means their run profile projected them for about 96.2 wins over a 162-game season. They actually won 98 games, so they finished about 1.8 wins above their Pythagorean expectation.

The White Sox had the lowest Pythagorean expected win proportion at 0.294. That translates to about 47.6 expected wins, but they only won 41 games, so they finished about 6.6 wins below their Pythagorean expectation.

These results matched the actual standings extremes. The Dodgers also had the highest actual win proportion in MLB, while the White Sox had the lowest actual win proportion. Overall, the Pythagorean model confirmed the same basic story as the standings: the Dodgers had the strongest run profile, and the White Sox had the weakest.