Introduction

This project builds off the Pythagorean expected wins calculation from the first assignment. This time, the goal is to see which teams won more or fewer games than their run profile expected.

To do that, I created a variable called lucky wins:

\[ \text{Lucky Wins} = \text{Actual Wins} - \text{Pythagorean Expected Wins} \]

A positive number means the team won more games than expected. A negative number means the team won fewer games than expected. I also compared the actual 2024 playoff field to what the playoff field would have looked like if spots were based on Pythagorean expected wins instead of actual wins.

All Teams Ranked by Lucky Wins

The table below ranks every MLB team by lucky wins. Teams at the top won more games than expected based on their run profile, while teams at the bottom won fewer games than expected.

2024 MLB Teams Ranked by Lucky Wins
Lucky Wins = actual wins minus Pythagorean expected wins
Rk Team Act. W Pyth W Pyth L Lucky Wins Actual Win% Pyth Win%
1 St. Louis Cardinals 83 75.7 86.3 7.3 0.512 0.467
2 Tampa Bay Rays 80 73.3 88.7 6.7 0.494 0.452
3 Texas Rangers 78 74.2 87.8 3.8 0.481 0.458
4 Pittsburgh Pirates 76 72.4 89.6 3.6 0.469 0.447
5 Colorado Rockies 61 58.6 103.4 2.4 0.377 0.362
6 Philadelphia Phillies 95 92.8 69.2 2.2 0.586 0.573
7 Miami Marlins 62 59.8 102.2 2.2 0.383 0.369
8 Cleveland Guardians 92 90.0 72.0 2.0 0.571 0.556
9 San Diego Padres 93 91.2 70.8 1.8 0.574 0.563
10 Toronto Blue Jays 74 72.4 89.6 1.6 0.457 0.447
11 Detroit Tigers 86 84.7 77.3 1.3 0.531 0.523
12 New York Mets 89 87.7 74.3 1.3 0.549 0.541
13 Los Angeles Dodgers 98 96.9 65.1 1.1 0.605 0.598
14 Washington Nationals 71 70.8 91.2 0.2 0.438 0.437
15 Baltimore Orioles 91 90.8 71.2 0.2 0.562 0.560
16 Athletics 69 68.9 93.1 0.1 0.426 0.426
17 Boston Red Sox 81 81.0 81.0 0.0 0.500 0.500
18 Minnesota Twins 82 82.7 79.3 −0.7 0.506 0.510
19 Arizona Diamondbacks 89 89.7 72.3 −0.7 0.549 0.554
20 San Francisco Giants 80 81.0 81.0 −1.0 0.494 0.500
21 Los Angeles Angels 63 64.1 97.9 −1.1 0.389 0.395
22 Milwaukee Brewers 93 94.6 67.4 −1.6 0.574 0.584
23 New York Yankees 94 95.8 66.2 −1.8 0.580 0.591
24 Atlanta Braves 89 92.2 69.8 −3.2 0.549 0.569
25 Houston Astros 88 91.5 70.5 −3.5 0.547 0.565
26 Kansas City Royals 86 89.8 72.2 −3.8 0.531 0.555
27 Cincinnati Reds 77 81.0 81.0 −4.0 0.475 0.500
28 Chicago Cubs 83 88.0 74.0 −5.0 0.512 0.543
29 Seattle Mariners 85 90.5 71.5 −5.5 0.525 0.559
30 Chicago White Sox 41 47.2 114.8 −6.2 0.253 0.291
Positive Lucky Wins means the team won more games than expected. Negative Lucky Wins means the team won fewer games than expected.

Lucky Wins Visual

This chart shows which teams won more or fewer games than their Pythagorean expected win total.

Luckiest and Most Unlucky Teams

Luckiest and Most Unlucky Teams
Based on actual wins minus Pythagorean expected wins
Category Team Act. W Pyth W Pyth L Lucky Wins Actual Win% Pyth Win%
Luckiest Team St. Louis Cardinals 83 75.7 86.3 7.3 0.512 0.467
Most Unlucky Team Chicago White Sox 41 47.2 114.8 −6.2 0.253 0.291
Lucky Wins = actual wins minus Pythagorean expected wins.

Playoff Comparison Method

For the playoff comparison, I used the actual MLB playoff format. Each league gets six playoff teams: three division winners and three Wild Card teams. The actual playoff teams are selected by actual wins. The Pythagorean playoff teams are selected the same way, but using Pythagorean expected wins instead.

Actual Playoff Teams vs. Pythagorean Playoff Teams

Actual Playoff Teams vs. Pythagorean Playoff Teams
Using the actual MLB playoff format: division winners plus Wild Card teams
Seed Type Division Team Act. W Pyth W Pyth L Lucky Wins
Actual Wins
AL #1 Division Winner AL East New York Yankees 94 95.8 66.2 −1.8
AL #2 Division Winner AL Central Cleveland Guardians 92 90.0 72.0 2.0
AL #3 Division Winner AL West Houston Astros 88 91.5 70.5 −3.5
AL #4 Wild Card AL East Baltimore Orioles 91 90.8 71.2 0.2
AL #5 Wild Card AL Central Kansas City Royals 86 89.8 72.2 −3.8
AL #6 Wild Card AL Central Detroit Tigers 86 84.7 77.3 1.3
NL #1 Division Winner NL West Los Angeles Dodgers 98 96.9 65.1 1.1
NL #2 Division Winner NL East Philadelphia Phillies 95 92.8 69.2 2.2
NL #3 Division Winner NL Central Milwaukee Brewers 93 94.6 67.4 −1.6
NL #4 Wild Card NL West San Diego Padres 93 91.2 70.8 1.8
NL #5 Wild Card NL East Atlanta Braves 89 92.2 69.8 −3.2
NL #6 Wild Card NL West Arizona Diamondbacks 89 89.7 72.3 −0.7
Pythagorean Expected Wins
AL #1 Division Winner AL East New York Yankees 94 95.8 66.2 −1.8
AL #2 Division Winner AL West Houston Astros 88 91.5 70.5 −3.5
AL #3 Division Winner AL Central Cleveland Guardians 92 90.0 72.0 2.0
AL #4 Wild Card AL East Baltimore Orioles 91 90.8 71.2 0.2
AL #5 Wild Card AL West Seattle Mariners 85 90.5 71.5 −5.5
AL #6 Wild Card AL Central Kansas City Royals 86 89.8 72.2 −3.8
NL #1 Division Winner NL West Los Angeles Dodgers 98 96.9 65.1 1.1
NL #2 Division Winner NL Central Milwaukee Brewers 93 94.6 67.4 −1.6
NL #3 Division Winner NL East Philadelphia Phillies 95 92.8 69.2 2.2
NL #4 Wild Card NL East Atlanta Braves 89 92.2 69.8 −3.2
NL #5 Wild Card NL West San Diego Padres 93 91.2 70.8 1.8
NL #6 Wild Card NL West Arizona Diamondbacks 89 89.7 72.3 −0.7
Lucky Wins = actual wins minus Pythagorean expected wins.

Playoff Teams That Would Change

The table below shows which teams would change if playoff teams were selected by Pythagorean expected wins instead of actual wins.

Playoff Teams That Would Change
Comparing actual playoff teams to Pythagorean expected win playoff teams
Category Team Division Actual Seed Pyth Seed Act. W Pyth W Pyth L Lucky Wins
Made Actual Playoffs, Missed by Pythagorean Expected Wins Detroit Tigers AL Central AL #6 NA 86 84.7 77.3 1.3
Missed Actual Playoffs, Made by Pythagorean Expected Wins Seattle Mariners AL West NA AL #5 85 90.5 71.5 −5.5
Lucky Wins = actual wins minus Pythagorean expected wins.

Playoff Seed Changes

This table only includes teams that made the playoffs under both systems but would have had a different seed using Pythagorean expected wins.

Playoff Seeds That Would Change
Teams that made the playoffs under both systems but would have moved seeds
Team Division Actual Seed Pyth Seed Act. W Pyth W Pyth L Lucky Wins
Cleveland Guardians AL Central AL #2 AL #3 92 90.0 72.0 2.0
Houston Astros AL West AL #3 AL #2 88 91.5 70.5 −3.5
Kansas City Royals AL Central AL #5 AL #6 86 89.8 72.2 −3.8
Philadelphia Phillies NL East NL #2 NL #3 95 92.8 69.2 2.2
Milwaukee Brewers NL Central NL #3 NL #2 93 94.6 67.4 −1.6
San Diego Padres NL West NL #4 NL #5 93 91.2 70.8 1.8
Atlanta Braves NL East NL #5 NL #4 89 92.2 69.8 −3.2
Lucky Wins = actual wins minus Pythagorean expected wins.

Summary

The St. Louis Cardinals came out as the luckiest team in MLB by this measure. They won 83 games, but their Pythagorean expected win total was about 75.9 wins, so they finished roughly 7.1 wins above expected.

The Chicago White Sox were on the other side. They won 41 games, but their run profile projected them for about 47.6 wins, meaning they finished about 6.6 wins below expected, wwhich I think is wild because they were already the worst team in the league, but they actually could also be considered the most unlucky team that season as well.

The playoff field also would have looked a little different if spots were based on Pythagorean expected wins instead of actual wins. The Detroit Tigers made the actual playoffs, but under the Pythagorean version, the Seattle Mariners would have taken that spot. Some playoff seeds would have changed too, whcich obviously could have played amajor role in that postseason.

Overall, lucky wins can be useful because they show which teams may have overperformed or underperformed their run profile. The actual standings still determine what happened, but Pythagorean expected wins can give a little better sense of whether a team’s record matched how well it scored and prevented runs throughout the season.