Strong demand signal across all four market segments
The pilot survey confirms significant unmet demand for reliable, affordable energy across Lagos. The commercial and SME segments present the strongest near-term commercial opportunity for Sahara Power Group's Embedded Generation and EaaS offerings, while the household and fleet segments require targeted product design to convert interest into transactions.
Five headline findings
96% of C&I respondents expressed interest in embedded generation, but 78% score COOL on BANT. 50% have annual revenues below ₦100M — smaller than typical SPG embedded-gen clients. The ₦500K–₦2M/month acceptable price range must be validated against actual load profiles. 5 warm leads (WARM BANT) are ready for proposal conversations.
82% of SMEs would switch to reliable power, and 53% are very interested in solar. However, 74% demand prepaid metering and most monthly energy spends sit below ₦50,000. Pay-as-you-go solar EaaS — not capital sales — is the viable route. Retail, food service, and healthcare are the top target sub-sectors.
53% of households are very interested in solar and 48% receive only 0–4 hours of grid power daily, confirming acute need. Yet 34% are unsure of financing options, and the leading adoption trigger is a "significant price reduction." Monthly instalments (₦40–80K/3 yrs) are preferred. SPG should design a low-deposit, community-anchored solar finance product.
Fleet operators are split almost 50/50 on openness to EV information, and 48% see adoption as "not within foreseeable future." However, 52% prefer battery swapping (not slow overnight charging), and 48% require a zero-capex solution. SPG should position as a Battery-as-a-Service provider, not a vehicle seller.
Grid unreliability is the dominant energy pain point across all four segments. This simultaneously validates the market for SPG's off-grid and embedded generation solutions and complicates EV charging deployment, which requires reliable depot power. Any fleet EV proposition must bundle depot solar+storage charging.
Pilot survey design and sample overview
Four survey instruments were deployed between April–May 2026 covering Commercial & Industrial (A), SME (B), Household (C), and Fleet (D) segments. Data was collected via mobile-first survey platform with geolocation capture.
| Instrument | Segment | Pilot n | Full Target | Achievement | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Commercial & Industrial | 24 | 100 | 24% | Under-sampled |
| B | SME | 156 | 300 | 52% | On track |
| C | Household | 188 | 600 | 31% | Progressing |
| D | Fleet | 33 | 30 | 110% | Target met ✓ |
| Total | 401 | 1,030 | 39% |
Strong intent; pipeline needs budget and authority qualification
24 C&I respondents, predominantly from Ikeja DISCO zone. 96% express genuine interest in Embedded Generation/EaaS. However, the sample skews toward smaller enterprises (50% revenue <₦100M), and zero respondents score HOT on BANT — signalling that the sales cycle will be 3–12 months minimum.
Key concerns about EaaS adoption (A4.3)
SPG must lead with its track record and financial stability as core messaging. A service-level guarantee with penalty clauses and transparent price escalation formulae will significantly lower the perceived risk barrier. The 5 WARM leads (BANT 10–14) should receive personalised proposals within 30 days — these are the highest-value near-term revenue opportunities.
Mass-market intent for solar EaaS, but price sensitivity is acute
156 SME respondents across Lagos. 82% would switch to 24/7 reliable power; 53% are very interested in solar. The dominant sectors are retail, food service, and healthcare. Monthly energy spend is modest, making prepaid Pay-as-you-go the only viable commercial model.
Top geographic concentrations (B1.6)
Oshodi-Isolo and Alimosho represent the highest-density SME clusters for a pilot solar EaaS rollout. The prepaid preference (74%) is non-negotiable — monthly bill models will fail. SPG should partner with mobile money platforms (OPay, PalmPay) which account for 20% of preferred payment methods. A WTP of ₦20,000–50,000/month for improved power aligns with a 0.5–1 kW solar system with storage.
Acute energy poverty; solar adoption gated by trust and financing
188 household respondents. 48% receive only 0–4 hours of grid electricity daily. 53% are very interested in solar but 72% rent their homes, creating financing complexity. EV awareness is low — 47% have never heard of EVs as a transport option.
Solar adoption triggers (C3.4)
Trusted referrals and demonstration effects are the primary non-price adoption triggers. SPG should use early adopters as community champions — providing visible installations and offering referral incentives. For renters (72%), a portable solar kit or estate-level model that does not require landlord permission is needed. The 26% who are ready to buy EVs with "no concerns" represent a small but concrete urban mobility opportunity in high-income sub-segments (Lekki, Ikoyi).
Earliest-stage market — battery swapping and zero-capex are essential
33 fleet operators surveyed — the only instrument to exceed its pilot target. Operators are split on EV openness (52% yes, 48% no), and knowledge is mostly basic or minimal. Battery swapping is the strongly preferred charging model. Almost half require a zero-capex commercial structure, ruling out equipment sales.
Top EV adoption barriers (D3.4 — 1–5 importance rating, mean)
The 5 HOT BANT fleet operators (willing to pilot within 6 months) represent the anchor customers for SPG's fleet electrification proof of concept. SPG should structure a Battery-as-a-Service offer: provide vehicles + battery swapping stations at depots, charge per km (pay-per-use). This eliminates the capex barrier. Grid reliability at depot must be solved first — bundle solar+storage charging infrastructure as part of the proposition.
Van Westendorp: Acceptable price range ₦500K–₦2M/month (C&I)
Van Westendorp Price Sensitivity Meter applied to C&I respondents (n=23). Four price points establish the acceptable price range for Embedded Generation / EaaS monthly fees. Note: several respondents likely provided one-off or annual figures; the analysis below is based on the interpreted monthly values from respondents.
| VW Threshold | Median (₦) | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Too Cheap (A5.1) | ₦500,000 | ₦40,000 | ₦3,000,000 | Floor — below this raises quality doubts |
| Cheap / Acceptable (A5.2) | ₦1,000,000 | ₦62,500 | ₦4,500,000 | Target entry price point |
| Getting Expensive (A5.3) | ₦2,000,000 | ₦80,000 | ₦6,500,000 | Upper acceptable range |
| Too Expensive (A5.4) | ₦5,000,000 | ₦150,000 | ₦10,000,000 | Ceiling — above this loses majority |
The wide interquartile ranges (25th pct ₦40K–₦150K vs 75th pct ₦3M–₦10M) indicate that respondents interpreted the question differently — some appear to have stated annual figures or one-off installation costs rather than monthly service fees. The median-based range of ₦1M–₦2M/month should be treated as indicative only and validated through load-profile-based proposals during the full-scale survey and sales engagement phase.
Three demand curves — one infrastructure thesis
Reading across all four instruments reveals a consistent pattern: infrastructure unreliability is the universal pain point, and it simultaneously creates demand for generation solutions (A, B, C) and complicates the deployment of EV charging (D). SPG's integrated energy infrastructure position is a decisive competitive advantage.
Segment priority matrix
| Segment | Demand Signal | Affordability | Sales Cycle | SPG Priority | Product Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C&I (A) | Very High | Medium | 3–12 months | HIGH | Embedded Gen EaaS |
| SME (B) | High | Low | 1–3 months | HIGH | Solar PaaS (prepaid) |
| Household (C) | High | Very Low | 3–6 months | MEDIUM | Community solar finance |
| Fleet (D) | Moderate | Low (capex barrier) | 6–24 months | MEDIUM | Battery-as-a-Service |
Six actions for Sahara Power Group
Prioritised by commercial impact and market readiness. Recommendations are sequenced for a 24-month horizon aligned with SPG's embedded generation and EaaS strategic objectives.
Convert 5 C&I warm leads to proposals
Five C&I respondents score BANT 10–14 (WARM). Assign dedicated account managers, conduct site load assessments, and deliver bankable proposals within 30 days. These are the shortest path to first embedded-gen revenue under this research programme.
Launch prepaid solar EaaS pilot in Oshodi-Isolo
Oshodi-Isolo hosts 24% of surveyed SMEs, and 82% would switch to reliable power. Design a prepaid solar EaaS product (₦20K–50K/month via OPay/PalmPay), deploy a 50-site pilot in Oshodi-Isolo. Retail and food service are anchor sectors.
Build the C&I pipeline via track record marketing
67% of C&I respondents cited "provider fails to deliver" as their top concern. SPG must create a case study library of delivered projects, third-party performance audits, and an SLA with financial penalties. This is not just a sales tool — it is the primary demand unlock for the full-scale C&I survey cohort.
Design a community solar product for renters
72% of household respondents rent — rooftop ownership models will not scale. SPG should develop an estate-level or landlord-partnership solar installation model where tenants subscribe to power from a shared rooftop system. Target new-build estates in Ibeju-Lekki, where 6% of respondents are concentrated in a fast-growing corridor.
Launch fleet EV proof-of-concept with 5 HOT leads
Five fleet operators scored HOT (BANT 15+) and expressed willingness to pilot within 6 months. Structure a Battery-as-a-Service pilot: SPG provides EVs, battery swapping station, and depot solar charging — operator pays per km driven. Success metrics: fuel cost savings, driver satisfaction, and NPS. Use results to build the business case for scale.
Build the Lagos EV charging backbone
Both fleet operators and households identified charging infrastructure as the top EV adoption barrier. SPG should position as the charging infrastructure provider — not just a vehicle lessor. Deploy solar-powered public charging hubs at Ikeja, Oshodi, and Lekki/Ajah (highest demand zones from the fleet routing data). This creates a captive recurring-revenue asset.
Data quality constraints and what they mean
As a pilot, this dataset has important limitations that affect the confidence level of all findings. These limitations should be understood before using this data for capital allocation or product pricing decisions.
| Limitation | Severity | Affected Instrument(s) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under-sampling of C&I Only 24 of target 100 responses. Small sample size inflates margin of error and prevents cluster analysis. |
High | A | All C&I percentages carry ±20% margin of error. BANT findings should not be used for pipeline sizing. |
| Van Westendorp interpretation variance Wide IQR suggests respondents interpreted price questions as annual, monthly, or installation cost. |
High | A | WTP data is directional only. Do not anchor commercial proposals on these figures without validation. |
| Geographic concentration 96% of C&I from Ikeja DISCO zone; SMEs concentrated in 5 LGAs; Fleet predominantly Ikorodu-based. |
Medium | A, B, D | Findings cannot be extrapolated to all of Lagos. Full-scale survey must enforce geographic quotas by DISCO zone. |
| Self-selection bias Respondents who completed the survey may be more energy-aware or cost-conscious than the average target. |
Medium | All | Demand and interest figures likely overstate the true addressable market. Apply a 15–20% discount when projecting market size. |
| Household income reporting 47% of household respondents report income <₦200K/month, but 15% decline to answer. Possible under-reporting. |
Medium | C | Affordability analysis may underestimate middle-income segment. Use consumption-based proxies in full survey (appliance ownership, spend on generator fuel). |
| No grid data validation Grid supply hours are self-reported and not cross-validated against DISCO outage data. |
Low–Med | B, C | Perception data is still strategically useful. Consider supplementing with NERC/DISCO feeder data in analysis phase. |
| Single-channel data collection Survey was primarily distributed via field enumerators and WhatsApp. Online-only segments may be under-represented. |
Low | All | No material concern for this study's objectives, but note for methodology documentation. |
Twelve design improvements for the full-scale survey
Based on pilot performance and data quality analysis, the following changes are recommended to optimise the full-scale survey for statistical validity and analytical depth.
Enforce geographic quotas by DISCO zone
Set hard quotas: minimum 20 C&I per DISCO zone (Ikeja, Eko, Ibeju-Lekki, Ikorodu). Use GIS-based enumerator assignment to prevent over-concentration.
Add a C&I minimum revenue screen
Screen out respondents with annual revenue below ₦500M for Instrument A — they are below SPG's minimum embedded-gen project threshold. Route them to Instrument B instead.
Reframe VW price questions with unit clarity
Add "per month for your total energy bill" explicitly to each A5.x question. Provide a worked example: "₦1,000,000 per month = ₦33,333 per day." This will collapse the IQR and produce more actionable pricing data.
Add actual energy consumption question (C&I)
Insert "What is your average monthly electricity consumption in kWh?" (with meter reading assistance guidance). This enables load-profile-based WTP validation and direct commercial sizing.
Add household appliance ownership index
Replace income question with an appliance ownership checklist (AC units, refrigerators, washing machine). This is a more reliable proxy for energy demand and affordability than self-reported income.
Add enumerator quality control module
Implement GPS-paired submission timestamp check to flag enumerators submitting multiple responses within short intervals from the same location (indicating possible fabrication).
Expand fleet instrument to include logistics corridors
75% of fleet operators have intercity routes. Add a detailed route mapping module: key origin-destination pairs, nightly parking locations, and fuel purchase points. This is critical for charging hub siting.
Add conjoint (choice-based) analysis to SME instrument
Instrument B currently lacks a conjoint module. Add 6 choice tasks varying price, payment model, installation time, and warranty duration. This will produce a precise willingness-to-pay model for solar EaaS product design.
Increase C&I sample to 150 (from 100)
The pilot reveals that C&I respondents cluster heavily in the smaller revenue bands. To achieve a representative split across Band A–E tariff users and revenue segments, increase the target to 150 with stratified quotas.
Add a generator cost diarymodule (B, C)
Self-reported generator spend is highly variable. Add a structured "last month's fuel and maintenance spend" diary recall for the most recent 4-week period. This produces better cost-of-current-solution data for ROI modelling.
K-means clustering on full dataset
With n=401 the dataset is too small for reliable clustering, especially for C&I (n=24). At full scale, apply K-means on SME and Household respondents to identify 3–5 distinct customer segments for targeted product design.
Cross-link instruments by estate / LGA
Where households, SMEs, and C&I respondents share the same LGA, link findings to identify whole-of-community energy demand profiles — enabling SPG to design estate-level integrated energy solutions (combined C&I anchor + SME/Household distribution).
The pilot has successfully validated the study design, survey instruments, and data collection process. The demand signal is clear and commercially significant. With the recommended improvements applied to the full-scale survey, the MarkAnalytics Energy dataset will provide SPG with a statistically rigorous, actionable foundation for its embedded generation and EaaS market entry strategy. The ₦100M research investment is on track to generate insights that can directly inform a multi-billion naira commercial programme.
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