Drafting With Data: What Fantasy Football Stats Say About Positional Draft Value
Introduction, Situation, and Primary Data
Hello! My name is Nick Walro, and I am a graduating senior at Xavier University studying Business Analytics and Marketing. I am originally from Cincinnati, Ohio, and throughout college I have spent a lot of time balancing academics, internships, leadership roles, and way too much fantasy football. Outside of analytics, I enjoy playing ultimate frisbee, following Cincinnati sports, and competing in just about anything.
For my Programming in Analytics course, I was tasked with performing an analysis on a dataset of my choosing, and fantasy football immediately stood out to me. Every year, millions of people spend hours debating draft strategy, arguing over positional value, and convincing themselves that this is finally the year a sleeper pick changes everything. I wanted to know if the data actually supported the way fantasy managers draft players, or if some positions consistently provide better value than others.
What makes this topic especially interesting to me is that fantasy football combines both strategy and emotion in a way few things do. Every manager wants to believe they have the perfect draft plan, yet every season somehow still includes panic picks, regrettable reaches, and at least one person convincing themselves Kyle Pitts is about to break out. With access to historical fantasy football statistics, draft position data, and programming tools in R, I wanted to take a more analytical approach to a game that is usually driven by gut feeling and group chat propaganda.
The Situation: You’re On The Clock
You’re sitting in your fantasy draft room, and it’s your turn to pick. The clock is ticking, and you’re staring at the board trying to decide what to do. You really want to draft Kyle Pitts because, for some reason, this is the year you’re convinced he finally breaks out. But you also know there are safer picks on the board. A quarterback could give you consistent points. A running back might not make it back to you next round. A wide receiver feels like the smart play.
Now you’re stuck. Do you trust your gut and take your guy, or do you make the “right” pick?
This led me to explore which fantasy football positions provide the most value. More specifically, I wanted to understand which positions score the most fantasy points per game, which positions are the most consistent, and how that information can help build a smarter draft strategy.
Data Sources
The first dataset came from FantasyData and includes NFL fantasy football leaders from the 2015 through 2024 regular seasons. This dataset includes player names, positions, season, games played, passing statistics, rushing statistics, receiving statistics, fantasy points per game, and total season points. https://fantasydata.com/nfl/fantasy-football-leaders
The second dataset came from FantasyPros and includes PPR average draft position data. This gives insight into how players were valued by fantasy managers before the season. Together, these datasets allow me to compare actual fantasy performance with draft expectations. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/ppr-overall.phphttps://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/ppr-overall.php
The two fantasy football data sets were ethically scraped by looping and combined into it to one complete data set.
Data Dictionary
| Variable | Description |
|---|---|
player |
NFL player name |
position |
Fantasy football position, such as QB, RB, WR, TE, or K |
season |
NFL season |
games_played |
Number of games played |
fantasy_points_per_game |
Average fantasy points scored per game |
total_season_points |
Total fantasy points scored during the season |
adp_rank |
Average draft position rank from FantasyPros |
value_score |
Fantasy points per game divided by ADP rank |
Data Wrangling
After collecting the data, I cleaned the table names and converted the key statistical columns into numeric values so they could be used for calculations and visualizations. I also filtered the data to focus only on the main fantasy football positions: quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and kickers. For the ADP dataset, I cleaned the position column by separating position labels such as WR1 or RB2 into just WR or RB so they could be compared with the FantasyData dataset.
Descriptive Analytics
Average Fantasy Points Per Game by Position
First, I looked at average fantasy points per game by position.
This chart makes things pretty clear: quarterbacks lead all positions in average fantasy points per game by a solid margin, showing they provide the most consistent value. Running backs and wide receivers still produce strong numbers but fall just behind, while tight ends drop off a bit more, which makes reaching for someone like Kyle Pitts feel a little riskier. And then there are kickers, who are just kind of there. Not hurting you, but definitely not carrying your team either.
Distribution of Fantasy Points Per Game
Averages are helpful, but they do not tell the whole story. I also wanted to look at the spread of fantasy points per game by position.
While quarterbacks continue to lead in overall fantasy production, this chart tells a different story about positional scarcity. Quarterback scoring is relatively clustered together, meaning there are many quarterbacks capable of producing solid fantasy numbers. Running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends show much larger spreads and higher outliers, suggesting that elite players at those positions separate themselves far more from the average starter. This is especially noticeable at tight end, where production drops off quickly after the top players are gone. In fantasy football, this creates an important tradeoff: quarterbacks may provide the safest and most consistent production, but elite running backs and tight ends can create a positional advantage that is much harder to replace later in the draft.
Fantasy Points Per Game Over Time
Next, I wanted to see if these positional trends have stayed consistent over time.
Putting the Todd Gurley sadness aside, this chart shows that quarterbacks have stayed near the top across seasons. Running backs and wide receivers fluctuate more, while tight ends and kickers generally sit lower. This supports the idea that quarterbacks are not just valuable in one season, but consistently valuable over time.
Top 10 Fantasy Seasons
I also looked at the top individual seasons by fantasy points per game.
This gives a clearer picture of who is truly winning you weeks, not just providing steady production. Quarterbacks and running backs show up heavily here, reinforcing their ability to produce at an elite level. Having one of these players can completely change a fantasy season.
I miss Todd Gurley :(
Draft Strategy Summary Table
To wrap the FantasyData portion together, I created a summary table comparing average production, variability, maximum production, and number of players by position.
# A tibble: 5 × 5
position avg_ppg sd_ppg max_ppg players
<chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
1 K 10.8 0.76 12.1 5
2 QB 17.5 3.23 27.7 255
3 RB 15.4 3.69 29.4 252
4 TE 13.7 2.43 20.9 68
5 WR 14.8 3.09 25.9 380This table helps summarize the main story. Quarterbacks have the highest average fantasy points per game and strong consistency. Running backs and wide receivers are still valuable, but running backs have more volatility while wide receivers offer more depth. Tight ends and kickers trail behind, showing that draft strategy is not just about who scores the most, but also about understanding risk, consistency, and positional depth.
Comparing Draft Expectations to Actual Performance
The FantasyPros ADP data adds another layer to the analysis. FantasyData tells us what happened, while ADP tells us what fantasy managers expected to happen. By combining the two datasets, I can compare draft cost to actual production.
ADP Rank vs Fantasy Performance
This chart compares where players were drafted to how they actually performed. Earlier draft picks should generally produce more fantasy points, but the spread shows that fantasy football is still messy. Some later picks provide strong value, while some early picks do not return what managers hoped for. This is where draft strategy becomes more than just picking the player with the best ranking.
Positional Value Relative to Draft Position
This chart compares how much fantasy production each position returns relative to where players are typically drafted. Quarterbacks stand out as the best overall value, producing the most fantasy points compared to their average draft position. This is interesting because quarterbacks are often drafted later than elite running backs or wide receivers, yet they consistently deliver high weekly production. Wide receivers and running backs still provide strong value, but their success depends much more on selecting the correct player from a crowded field of options. Tight ends rank slightly lower overall because the position becomes extremely top-heavy after the elite players are gone. Meanwhile, kickers fall far behind every other position, reinforcing the idea that using valuable draft capital on them provides very little return. Overall, this visualization suggests that fantasy managers may actually underestimate quarterback value while overvaluing positions that carry more risk and inconsistency.
Conclusion: Choose Your Draft Strategy
Fantasy football will never be completely solved. Every season brings breakout players, disappointing draft picks, and someone in your league convincing themselves they found the next league winner in round 11. Still, the data does show some clear trends. Quarterbacks provide the most reliable production over time, while running backs and tight ends offer higher-risk, higher-reward upside because of positional scarcity. Wide receivers remain the deepest and most flexible position group, while kickers continue to exist mainly because fantasy leagues refuse to remove them.
At the end of the day, successful drafting is about balancing consistency, upside, and value relative to draft cost. Whether you decide to draft aggressively or play things safe, understanding the numbers behind positional value gives you a better chance to avoid panic picks and draft with a real strategy instead of pure emotion.
Hopefully this analysis helps you make smarter decisions, avoid last-place punishment, and maybe even go win your league. Best of luck this season, and remember: no matter how convincing the offseason hype gets, you probably still should not draft Kyle Pitts.
