This document is a consolidated reference for the Vermont tax revenue forecasting project. The forecasting target is annual Vermont state tax revenue across approximately 38 categories. Forecasts are updated twice yearly:
January update: Forecasts FY2026 through FY2030 (five years). Individual filer data available through December of the prior year covers the first six months of the current fiscal year, making FY2026 a hybrid nowcast-plus-forecast problem.
July update: Forecasts FY2027 through FY2031 (five years). FY2026 is fully observed and serves as the structural base year. The legislature votes on the first two forecast years (FY2027–FY2028), making these the most consequential.
The two most important forecasting challenges are (1) large-payer concentration — a handful of filers, particularly in CORP and ESTATE, can dominate year-to-year volatility in ways that macro models cannot capture — and (2) within-year real-time signals — individual filer data for the first half of the fiscal year provides contemporaneous information that improves the current-year nowcast.
Revenue Analysis Data - CALM F0126.xlsx, sheet
CALM Data Entrycalm_clean_tblThe raw file is read in three range segments and column-bound.
Cleaning: first column renamed to Date and parsed as date;
last row dropped; character columns coerced to numeric; columns whose
last value is NA dropped; pirefpos dropped as redundant.
Aggregate/subtotal columns (TAXREV, OTHEREV, GENREV, TRANSREV, OTHBIG5)
are excluded as forecast targets.
Important: CALM captures gross tax collections at the source, before any fund allocation. Changes in how revenue is split across the General Fund, Education Fund, Transportation Fund, or other dedicated funds are downstream accounting matters that have no effect on CALM values and are irrelevant to forecasting.
Major Taxes
| Code | Description | Start | End | Complete Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PINCOME | Personal Income Tax | 1977-07 | 2025-12 | 1.000 |
| PIWITH | PIT — Withholding | 1987-07 | 2025-12 | 0.794 |
| PIEST | PIT — Estimated payments | 1987-07 | 2025-12 | 0.794 |
| PIPAID | PIT — Total paid | 1987-07 | 2025-12 | 0.794 |
| PIREF | PIT — Refunds | 1987-07 | 2025-12 | 0.794 |
| PIOTHER | PIT — Other | 2003-07 | 2025-12 | 0.464 |
| S&U | Sales & Use Tax | 1977-07 | 2025-12 | 1.000 |
| CORP | Corporate Income Tax | 1977-07 | 2025-12 | 1.000 |
| M&R | Meals & Rooms Tax | 1977-07 | 2025-12 | 1.000 |
| ESTATE | Estate Tax | 1977-07 | 2025-12 | 1.000 |
Additional categories include CIG, LIQ, INSUR, BANK, GAS, DIESEL, MVP&U, MVFEES, PARIM, PROPT, LOT, INT, and OTHREV among excise, property, business, non-tax, and transportation revenues.
Target variables are transformed to annual fiscal year year-over-year
percent change: monthly values summed to FY totals (dates shifted +6
months before annual grouping, so July 1977–June 1978 = FY1978), then
Pct = Value / lag(Value) - 1. FY2026 is excluded as the
forecast target.
Key properties: near-zero annual AR1 for most taxes (range -0.44 to +0.45); ESTATE is the most volatile (SD = 0.722, AR1 = -0.436) and least forecastable from macro variables (max r = 0.442); M&R is the most forecastable (top macro predictor r = 0.830); MVP&U has the strongest single mechanistic predictor link (motor vehicle PCE, r = 0.781); CORP has moderate macro correlations (max r = 0.531) and is heavily affected by large-payer concentration; INT has an extreme right tail (p99 = 15.4); GAS has a significant negative time trend (r = -0.420).
Variables excluded from statistical modeling: OTHTT (0 observations), ELECANNABIS (Inf/NaN from structural break), SPEC (NaN/Inf from sign-changing base values), DIESLIC (4 observations).
Variables requiring simplified modeling: MFASSMT (12 obs), TIBGAS (15 obs), TIBDIESEL (15 obs), PIOTHER (22 obs), PARIM (19 obs), BANK (40 obs).
Strong positive clusters: TIBDIESEL ↔︎ DIESEL (r = 0.918), TIBDIESEL ↔︎ BEV (r = 0.908), PINCOME ↔︎ PIEST (r = 0.883), PINCOME ↔︎ PIWITH (r = 0.864), PIWITH ↔︎ INSUR (r = 0.857), M&R ↔︎ TIBGAS (r = 0.826), MVP&U ↔︎ S&U (r = 0.795).
Notable near-zero or negative: ESTATE ↔︎ M&R (r = -0.026), PARIM ↔︎ ESTATE (r = -0.546), INT near-zero with almost all taxes.
| Abbreviation | Full File Name | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| BFT_ALLOC | BFT Allocations to December 2025 Period - AS OF 121825 | Prior: File BFT-2 |
| BFT_RTN | BFT Returns CY20 Through CY25 - AS OF 121825 | Prior: File BFT-1 |
| BIT_CIT_NORETURN | BIT & CIT - Payments on Periods With No Return - Prepared 20260105 | New; 6 sheets: 2025 BIT, 2024 BIT, 2025 CIT, 2024 CIT, 2023 CIT, query |
| BIT_PMT_CUM | BIT Payments Cumulative by Account - FY26 First Half Update - Prepared 2025-12-29 | New; 3 sheets: FY26-FY25 Compare, FY26 First Half Only, FY25 First Half Only |
| CAPGAIN_SUM | Capital Gains Summary TY16 - TY24 - Prepared 2025-12-19 | Prior: File 2 |
| CCC_DUE | CCC Due on PIT Returns - Prepared 2025-12-19 | Prior: File 3 |
| PIT_AGI100K_CHG | Change TY24-TY23 in PIT Filers with AGI over $100K - Prepared 2025-12-19 | Prior: File 1 |
| CIG_STAMPS | Cigarette Stamps CY 2025 Totals by Vendor - AS OF 12.18.25 | New; leading indicator for CIG |
| CIT_CARRYFORWARD | CIT Carryforward - Sums by FY - January 2026 update | New; structural headwind/tailwind signal |
| CIT_INFO | CIT Information January 2026 - AS OF 12.18.25 | New; 6 sheets: Pending Refunds, Outstanding Bills FY23–FY26, FY26 Undirected Ext. Payments, Query |
| CIT_PMT_CUM | CIT Payments Cumulative by Account - FY26 First Half Update | 3-sheet structure identical to BIT_PMT_CUM; reconciliation flag pending |
| CIT_BIT_NRW_10K | CIT, BIT, & NRW Payments over $10K, First Half of FY26 - Prepared 2025-12-29 | Prior: Files 5a/5b; per-transaction ≥$10K threshold; 4 sheets: CIT, BIT, NRW, Query |
| CTT_INFO | CTT Info 06-30-2025 Through 12-31-2025 - AS OF 12.18.25 | New; Cigarette/Tobacco Tax |
| EST_EXT_100K | EST Extension & Return Payments Over $100K 07-01-25 Through 12-31-25 - AS OF 12.18.25 | Prior: File 7; 2 sheets: DATA, QUERY |
| ESTATE_FILINGS | Estate Tax Filings 07-01-2025 - 12-31-2025 - Prepared 2025-12-19 | Prior: File 8; 1 sheet: Table |
| MRT_STR_MONTHLY | MRT & STR Monthly totals 01-01-2019 Through 11-30-2025 - Prepared 2025-12-19 | Prior: File 9 |
| NRW_PMT_CUM | NRW Payments Cumulative by Account - FY26 First Half Update - Prepared 2025-12-29 | Prior: File 5b extended |
| CIT_PMT_ANNUAL | Payment Totals by Year - CIT - Prepared 20260106 | Prior: File 10; fully analyzed |
| ANY_PMT_50K | Payments (Any Tax) over $50K, First Half of FY26 - Prepared 2025-12-29 | Prior: File 11 |
| WHT_FILINGS | WHT Quarterly Filings Over $25K CY2025 - AS OF 12.18.25 | Prior: File 12 |
These files are not the forecasting target and do not represent the full population of filers. Every file has at least one filter (dollar threshold, date window, status filter, or residency filter). Their relationship to aggregate totals should be treated as an empirical question.
BIT/source tax revenue mapping: BIT maps to CORP in source tax revenues — confirmed with Tax Department (May 2026).
NRW mapping: NRW maps to CORP in source tax revenues — confirmed with Tax Department (May 2026).
CIT_PMT_CUM reconciliation flag: Unresolved 5.17× discrepancy with CIT_PMT_ANNUAL. Do not use CIT_PMT_CUM YoY signal as standalone nowcast input until threshold definition is confirmed.
Sign convention: Payments stored negative in the
transaction system. CIT_BIT_NRW_10K applies * -1 in SQL
before export. CIT_PMT_CUM requires negation on read.
Excel subtotal rows: EST_EXT_100K requires filtering
to ^EST-[0-9]+$ before analysis.
Account ID systems: EST_EXT_100K uses EST-XXXXXXXX format; ESTATE_FILINGS uses decedent SSN or V-prefixed ID. Tax Department acknowledged the mismatch and will provide revised files (May 2026). Cross-file join pending receipt of revised files.
Personal Income Tax files
PIT_AGI100K_CHG — Individual filer comparison TY24 vs TY23. AGI ≥ $100K only; residents only.
CAPGAIN_SUM — Capital gains by filing period, TY2016–present. Residents only; aggregated.
CCC_DUE — Single aggregate row for TY2024.
Corporate Income Tax / Business Income Tax files
CIT_PMT_ANNUAL, CIT_PMT_CUM, CIT_BIT_NRW_10K, CIT_CARRYFORWARD, CIT_INFO — Fully analyzed; see Sections 6–10.
BIT_CIT_NORETURN, BFT_RTN, BFT_ALLOC — Not yet analyzed.
Estate Tax files — Fully analyzed; see Section 5.
Meals & Rooms Tax files
MRT_STR_MONTHLY — Monthly M&R totals by sub-category from January 2019 through November 2025.
Withholding Tax files
WHT_FILINGS — Large withholding filers (tax due > $25K), quarterly, CY2025.
| CALM Category | Individual Files | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| PINCOME | PIT_AGI100K_CHG, CAPGAIN_SUM, CCC_DUE | Top-level PIT aggregate |
| PIWITH | WHT_FILINGS | Large filers (tax due > $25K); CY2025 |
| PIEST | BIT_CIT_NORETURN | BIT mapping previously provisional; now confirmed to map to CORP, not PIEST — see CORP row |
| CORP | CIT_PMT_ANNUAL, CIT_PMT_CUM, CIT_BIT_NRW_10K (CIT, BIT, and NRW sheets), CIT_CARRYFORWARD, CIT_INFO, BIT_PMT_CUM | BIT and NRW confirmed to map to CORP (May 2026) |
| M&R | MRT_STR_MONTHLY | |
| CIG/BEV | CIG_STAMPS, CTT_INFO | |
| ESTATE | ESTATE_FILINGS, EST_EXT_100K | Non-overlapping; complementary |
| BANK | BFT_RTN, BFT_ALLOC | |
| S&U | None | Relies entirely on macro variables |
| GAS/DIESEL/Transportation | None | Relies entirely on macro variables |
| PARIM | None | Relies entirely on macro variables |
For CORP and ESTATE, the preferred approach decomposes total revenue into: (1) the base component — revenue from the broad population of small and medium filers, trackable by macro models; and (2) the large-filer component — revenue from a small number of large filers requiring individual filer files. Total forecast = Component 1 + Component 2, with separate uncertainty bands.
Base-year cleaning: The structural base year adjusts for idiosyncratic large-filer effects: \(Y^*_{FY2026} = Y_{FY2026}^{actual} - \hat{\epsilon}_{large,FY2026}\). For CORP, use FY2021–FY2024 (post-PTET) as the reference period. The 2022 CIT apportionment overhaul (effective FY2024) is an additional structural break that should be considered when using FY2024 as a reference — accounts whose Vermont apportionment changed materially under the new single-factor rule may have anomalous FY2024 payments that are neither idiosyncratic nor representative of the new normal.
Step-by-step: 1. Run macro model for base component forecast for each tax, using appropriate post-break estimation windows (see Section 13) 2. Pull July–December large-payer data and compute year-over-year growth rate vs. prior year same period 3. For ESTATE, enumerate known pipeline from ESTATE_FILINGS ($13.9M committed H2 revenue) plus MPYEXT accounts in EST_EXT_100K 4. For CORP, use CIT_PMT_ANNUAL H1 signal ($103M across 861 accounts) with post-PTET H1 ratio (0.380); adjust for carryforward regime and 2022 apportionment change context 5. Combine base component + large-filer projection + known pipeline 6. Present forecast with explicit decomposition
Purpose 1 — Base year cleaning: Remove idiosyncratic effects from FY2026 actuals. Use post-PTET, post-apportionment-change reference period for CORP.
Purpose 2 — Concentration risk characterization: Report top-payer share and stress scenarios to the legislature.
CORP
January: Primary signal is CIT_PMT_ANNUAL H1 FY2026 ($103M across 861 accounts, implied full-year ~$271.1M). Cross-check against CIT_BIT_NRW_10K CIT sheet ($76.9M). Note the carryforward regime change (Section 9) — the structural tailwind interpretation is conditional on summer 2026 extension filing data; treat as unresolved until then. Note that the 2022 apportionment overhaul likely caused the FY2024 payment decline (−12.6%) and may still be working through the filer population in FY2026.
July: Use CIT_PMT_ANNUAL for complete FY2026 panel. Apply post-PTET, post-apportionment-change reference window for base-year cleaning.
ESTATE
January: Three-tier pipeline construction (Known: $13.9M / Extension: $5.4M collected / Structural base: macro model).
July: Remove outlier estates for structural base. Known large unsettled estates become FY2027 pipeline items.
PIWITH
January: WHT_FILINGS YoY growth rate vs. CY2024 as direct contemporaneous signal.
M&R
January: MRT_STR_MONTHLY sub-category breakdown; flag 2021 meal delivery platform structural shift.
Tier 1 — Point forecast for each of the five years.
Tier 2 — Structural decomposition for near-term years: macro base + large-filer component + known pipeline.
Tier 3 — Concentration risk statement — top-payer share and stress scenario.
Overall: 45 filings. Total adjusted VT estate tax = $26,762,047. Total prior payments = $13,527,359. Total amount due = $13,889,105. Total refunds = $654,417.
Monthly distribution:
| Month | Filings | Total Adj Tax | Amount Due |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | 7 | $10,165,530 | $3,799,485 |
| August 2025 | 11 | $3,552,364 | $3,340,533 |
| September 2025 | 10 | $2,355,115 | $1,312,688 |
| October 2025 | 8 | $8,680,907 | $3,899,268 |
| November 2025 | 5 | $1,413,726 | $962,726 |
| December 2025 | 4 | $594,405 | $574,405 |
Size distribution:
| Band (VT Taxable Estate) | Filings | % of Filings | Adj Tax | % of Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $1M | 3 | 6.8% | $0 | 0% |
| $1M–$2M | 1 | 2.3% | $0 | 0% |
| $2M–$5M | 5 | 11.4% | $0 | 0% |
| $5M–$10M | 21 | 47.7% | $3,111,216 | 11.6% |
| $10M+ | 14 | 31.8% | $23,650,831 | 88.4% |
The $5M effective exclusion threshold (current since January 1, 2021) is confirmed by the zero-tax bands below $5M. The 2019 estate tax legislation raised the exclusion from $2.75M to $4.25M (effective January 2020) and then to $5.0M (effective January 2021), materially reducing the number of taxable estates relative to the pre-2020 period. Historical ESTATE CALM data before FY2021 is not directly comparable to the current regime without adjustment.
Revenue concentration: top_1 = 24.6%, top_5 = 69.8%, top_10 = 88.2%, HHI = 0.124.
Death-to-receipt lag: median 434 days, modal band 12–18 months (52.9%), only 32.4% arrive within 9 months.
Death cohort pipeline:
| Death FY | Filings | Adj Tax | Amount Due | Mean Prior Pmt Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 8 | $7,438,491 | $78,182 | ~1.06 (overpaid) |
| FY2025 | 17 | $18,651,061 | $13,188,422 | ~0.30 |
Overall: 10 real transactions totaling $13,905,140. Extension (MPYEXT): 2 payments, $5,401,516. Return (MPYRTN): 8 payments, $8,503,624. Concentration: top_1 = 31.4%, top_3 = 62.5%, HHI = 0.177. Zero overlap with ESTATE_FILINGS — structurally coherent.
Note: Tax Department has acknowledged an account identifier mismatch between EST_EXT_100K (EST-XXXXXXXX format) and ESTATE_FILINGS (decedent SSN or V-prefixed ID) and will provide revised files. Cross-referencing between the two files should be revisited upon receipt.
The PTET election introduced in FY2021 caused a one-time, non-cyclical regime shift:
| FY | Accounts | Total Large Payments | YoY Growth | YoY Acct Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 358 | $36,794,811 | — | — |
| 2021 | 996 | $150,542,598 | +309.1% | +638 |
| 2022 | 1,212 | $173,110,812 | +15.0% | +216 |
| 2023 | 1,405 | $214,223,857 | +23.7% | +193 |
| 2024 | 1,382 | $187,252,268 | −12.6% | −23 |
| 2025 | 1,596 | $248,980,916 | +33.0% | +214 |
The FY2024 decline of −12.6% is consistent with the 2022 CIT apportionment overhaul (effective January 1, 2023 = FY2024) reducing Vermont apportionment for some multistate corporations. This is a second structural break within the post-PTET window, though smaller in magnitude than the FY2021 PTET shift.
| Use Case | Recommended Period | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Concentration statistics | FY2021–FY2025 | FY2020 pre-PTET regime |
| Coverage ratio | FY2021–FY2025 | FY2020 coverage (33.8%) vs post-PTET mean (82.1%) |
| H1-to-full-year ratio | FY2021–FY2025 | Post-PTET mean 0.380 |
| Base-year cleaning reference | FY2021–FY2024 | FY2020 distorts post-PTET entrants |
Concentration: top_1_mean = 6.2%, top_5_mean = 16.4%, HHI_mean = 0.012.
Coverage ratio: mean = 82.1%, SD = 6.8%, range 76.1%–91.3%.
H1-to-full-year ratio: mean = 0.380, SD = 0.049, range 0.344–0.452.
Base-year cleaning sensitivity (FY2025): post-PTET reference gives structural base $198.3M (~20.4% idiosyncratic); full reference gives $174.3M (~30.0% idiosyncratic).
H1 FY2026 observed (raw data): $103M across 861 accounts. Post-PTET H1 ratio (0.380): implied full-year ~$271.1M.
Three sheets. Payments stored negative; negate on read. H1 FY2026: $18.2M (160 accounts). H1 FY2025: $55.4M (235 accounts).
5.17× gap vs. CIT_PMT_ANNUAL ($103M across 861 accounts). Accounts present in both files show nearly identical payment totals, so the gap is driven by accounts present in ANNUAL but absent from CUM. Most likely cause: per-transaction vs. annual cumulative threshold definition. Status: UNRESOLVED.
Dramatic apparent concentration decline (top_1: 0.549 → 0.063) is an artifact of the threshold filter, not a genuine economic signal.
Per-transaction ≥$10K threshold. Date range: July 1–December 31,
2025. SQL applies * -1 — amounts arrive positive. CIT, BIT,
and NRW are distinct account types that all map to CORP in source tax
revenues — confirmed with Tax Department (May 2026).
| Sheet | Rows | Total Amount |
|---|---|---|
| CIT | 955 | $76,901,686 |
| BIT | 145 | $4,253,745 |
| NRW | 265 | $9,808,084 |
| Total | 1,365 | $90,963,515 |
CIT: MPYEST dominates at 83.3% ($64.0M). MPYRTN 9.6%; MPYEXT 4.5%.
BIT: MPYRTN dominates at 68.7%. Pass-through entities tend to settle on filing rather than making quarterly estimated payments.
NRW: Entirely MPYNRW (100%).
CIT: 84.8% attributed to FY2026; 11.2% to FY2025. Small tail back to FY2013.
BIT: FY2025 dominates at 74.6% — modal filing year is FY2025, consistent with calendar year 2024 liabilities settling in H1 FY2026.
September and December each account for roughly 36% of CIT and NRW cash, consistent with quarterly estimated tax deadlines (September 15 and December 15).
CIT sheet ($76.9M) = 81.7% of CIT_PMT_ANNUAL. Remaining 18.3% gap reflects accounts making multiple sub-$10K transactions. BIT and NRW both map to CORP in source tax revenues (confirmed May 2026) and should be benchmarked against CORP alongside CIT.
Carryforward generated (rtncfd): corporation overpays
and carries excess forward as future credit rather than receiving a
refund. Carryforward applied (rtncfc): corporation draws
down prior credits to reduce current cash liability — a silent deduction
that suppresses CALM CORP collections without any cash payment.
Historically offset roughly 32–44% of gross CALM CORP collections
annually.
| FY | CF Generated | CF Applied | CF Net | Cumulative Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $33.7M | $31.5M | +$2.2M | $2.2M |
| 2018 | $51.6M | $42.9M | +$8.7M | $10.9M |
| 2019 | $47.3M | $48.7M | −$1.4M | $9.6M |
| 2020 | $57.5M | $47.1M | +$10.5M | $20.0M |
| 2021 | $81.5M | $57.8M | +$23.7M | $43.7M |
| 2022 | $89.3M | $81.4M | +$7.9M | $51.6M |
| 2023 | $101.9M | $89.2M | +$12.7M | $64.3M |
| 2024 | $105.0M | $103.6M | +$1.4M | $65.7M |
| 2025 | $3.7M | $103.1M | −$99.3M | −$33.7M |
| 2026 | $0 | $3.7M | −$3.7M | −$37.4M |
Carryforward generation collapsed from $105M to $3.7M in FY2025, with zero generation in FY2026. This is an abrupt structural discontinuity unrelated to any legislation listed in the JFO Highlights of Recent Tax Legislation.
Tax Department meeting (May 2026) identified two competing explanations. First, an extension lag: corporations routinely file returns late — one case of a five-year filing lag has been observed — and FY2025 carryforward generation is not expected to appear in the data until after summer 2026. The near-zero FY2025 figure may therefore be a data artifact rather than an economic signal. Second, a structural suppression effect: even after the lag resolves, carryforward generation may not return to ~$100M because the corporate minimum tax was raised from $750 to $100,000, preventing many corporations from using credits to reduce liability below the high floor. The 2023 shift to Finnigan methodology compounded this by aggregating entire unitary group sales to determine whether a corporation clears the $300M threshold, sweeping more companies into the $100,000 minimum tax bracket than under prior rules and expanding the pool of corporations for whom carryforward credits are effectively stranded assets.
The relative magnitude of the two effects will become clearer after summer 2026, when extension filers are expected to appear. Do not treat the FY2025 collapse as a confirmed structural change until that diagnostic window has passed.
If the collapse is structural and permanent, the cessation of carryforward generation represents a tailwind for future CORP collections — firms will no longer be able to offset tax bills with prior credits, meaning CALM collections will trend upward relative to underlying corporate profitability as the existing stock exhausts. This tailwind is invisible to macro models. However, this interpretation is conditional: it holds only if the legacy stock of accumulated credits continues to be applied while new generation has permanently stopped. The summer 2026 extension filing window is the key diagnostic.
December dominates (mean $43.1M applied vs. September $4.0M next largest), consistent with December 31 filing period end dates. CORP collections in December are systematically suppressed relative to gross liability due to year-end carryforward application.
21 refunds totaling $6.0M requested, $0 posted. All in REVIEW status. TRNHIG approval level = 87.9% ($5.3M). TRNHIG is a high-balance pending review status — confirmed with Tax Department (May 2026). Typical timeline from REVIEW to posting for TRNHIG refunds remains unconfirmed. FY2025 filing periods = 96.9% of total. Concentration: top_1 = 45.6%, HHI = 0.245. Represents a contingent future cash outflow of ~7.9% of H1 FY2026 CORP.
| Sheet | Years Outstanding | Bills | Total Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY26 | 0 | 30 | $74,982 |
| FY25 | 1 | 999 | $3,640,721 |
| FY24 | 2 | 306 | $1,603,530 |
| FY23 | 3 | 149 | $559,969 |
FY23 dominated by APL (appeal) and COL (collections) — lower probability of full recovery. FY25 contains $1.54M under HBREV — a temporary status indicating a high-balance account pending review, confirmed with Tax Department (May 2026). Collection rate for HBREV accounts remains unconfirmed. Total pipeline ($5.9M) approximately offsets pending refunds ($6.0M). Net effect on CORP forecast is near zero.
12 payments totaling $4,430 — negligible relative to CALM CORP.
Six sheets, approximately 80 years of history plus forecasts through FY2055. Vermont sheets ~90 variables each; US sheets ~300 variables each.
Four predictor datasets combined into predictors_tbl (55
rows × 1,065 columns). Transformation: variables with “%” in Moody’s
description are first-differenced; all others converted to YoY %
change.
| Tax | Top Predictors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| PINCOME | US wages — manufacturing durable (r = 0.753); consumer credit delinquencies (r ≈ -0.73) | |
| PIWITH | US wages — retail trade CY lagged (r = 0.753) | |
| PIEST | US wages — manufacturing durable (r = 0.715); S&P 500 (r = 0.669) | |
| PIPAID | S&P 500 CY lagged (r = 0.695) | |
| CORP | US profits tax liability (r = 0.472); US corporate cashflow CY lagged (r = 0.472) | Individual filer data essential; use post-break estimation window |
| M&R | US retail sales — clothing CY lagged (r = 0.830); VT leisure & hospitality employment (r = 0.785) | Most forecastable |
| ESTATE | Max r = 0.442; no macro variable structurally meaningful | Individual filer data is primary tool |
| S&U | US retail sales — building materials (r = 0.689) | Consider post-2019 marketplace facilitator window |
| MVP&U | US motor vehicle PCE (r = 0.781) | |
| INSUR | US legal services employment (r = 0.746) | |
| PROPT | VT consumer credit delinquencies (r = -0.749) | |
| BANK | US minimum wage CY lagged (r = 0.561) | Treat with caution |
| GAS | Time trend (r = -0.420); US electricity retail sales (r = 0.465) | Include explicit time trend |
| PARIM | VT home price median; FHFA index; VT population; 30-year mortgage rate | Use theoretical predictors only; 19 obs |
This section documents structural changes to Vermont tax law that affect CALM gross collections and therefore require attention in the statistical modeling framework. Fund allocation changes (e.g., dedications of revenue to the Education Fund or Clean Water Fund) are excluded because CALM captures source revenue before fund splits and is unaffected by allocation changes.
General modeling principle: Running a single macro regression over the full CALM history without accounting for structural breaks will produce biased coefficient estimates. For each affected tax category, the estimation window should be restricted to the post-break regime, or a regime dummy variable should be included.
| Effective | Change | Direction | Modeling Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2007 | Mandatory unitary combined reporting for all C-corporations with Vermont income | Ambiguous | First major unitary reporting requirement; structural break in who files |
| FY2007–FY2008 | Double-weighted sales factor replaces equal-weighted three-factor apportionment | Revenue-negative for multistate corps with small VT sales share | Partial structural shift; phased over two years |
| TY2020 (FY2021) | Market-based sourcing for intangibles replaces cost-of-performance | Revenue-positive for Vermont (intangible income sourced to customer location) | Structural upward shift; coincides with PTET and is difficult to isolate |
| TY2021 (FY2022) | PTET election introduced | Structural increase — pass-through entity owners can elect CIT treatment | +309% payment growth and +638 accounts in FY2021; dominant structural break. Use FY2021 as post-PTET base year |
| TY2023 (FY2024) | Single sales factor apportionment; repeal of Throwback Rule; Finnigan method; all US corporations in unitary group | Revenue-negative for some large multistate corporations | Consistent with the −12.6% FY2024 payment decline in CIT_PMT_ANNUAL. Second structural break within post-PTET window. Finnigan methodology also expands the pool of corporations subject to the $100K minimum tax — see Section 9.3 |
| FY2025 | Carryforward generation collapses from $105M to $3.7M | Structural tailwind if permanent — silent offset to CORP collections diminishing | Cause partially explained (extension lag + minimum tax/Finnigan structural suppression); diagnostic window is post-summer 2026. See Section 9.3 |
Recommended CORP estimation window: FY2022–FY2025 for concentration benchmarks and macro model calibration, with sensitivity tests using FY2021–FY2025. FY2024 may warrant further scrutiny as a second transition year. Do not use pre-FY2021 data without explicit regime controls.
| Effective | Change | Direction | Modeling Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 1, 2016 | Restructured to flat 16% rate on value over $2.75M exclusion; includes taxable gifts within two years of death | Structural change to rate and base definition | Prior graduated structure not comparable; pre-FY2016 data requires regime dummy |
| January 1, 2020 | Exclusion raised from $2.75M to $4.25M | Revenue-negative — fewer estates taxable | Structural downward shift in FY2020 collections |
| January 1, 2021 | Exclusion raised from $4.25M to $5.0M (current) | Revenue-negative — further reduction in taxable estates | Current regime; confirmed by ESTATE_FILINGS showing zero tax below ~$5M. FY2022 onward is the cleanest post-reform window |
| Ongoing | Revenue above 125% of prior July forecast dedicated to Higher Education Trust Fund | Mechanical fund diversion in very large ESTATE years | Does not affect CALM gross collections; irrelevant for forecasting |
Recommended ESTATE estimation window: FY2022–FY2025 for the current $5.0M exclusion regime. FY2020 and FY2021 are transition years. Pre-FY2016 data requires a regime dummy at minimum. Given the small number of post-FY2022 observations (4 years), macro model estimation is nearly impossible — the individual filer pipeline (ESTATE_FILINGS and EST_EXT_100K) is and should remain the primary forecasting tool.
| Effective | Change | Direction | Modeling Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| TY2002 | Shift from percentage-of-federal-liability to bracket-based system with 40% capital gains exclusion | Structural regime change | Pre-FY2003 PINCOME not comparable without regime dummy |
| TY2009 | Capital gains exclusion restricted to farms and timber; flat $2,500 exclusion for other gains | Revenue-positive — reduced exclusion for most capital gains | Structural upward shift in PIEST and PIPAID around FY2010 |
| TY2011 | Two-method capital gains: 40% exclusion for certain business assets held >3 years OR flat $5,000 for stocks, real estate, depreciable personal property | Modest structural change | Affects PIEST and PIPAID |
| TY2015 | 3% minimum tax for taxpayers with AGI > $150,000 | Revenue-positive | Structural upward shift; most visible in PINCOME for high-income years |
| TY2018 | Comprehensive reform: decoupling from federal AGI, new Vermont standard deduction and exemption, four brackets at 3.35%/6.6%/7.6%/8.75%, EITC expansion | Revenue-negative — rate reductions | Major structural break; FY2019 is the first full year under new system. Use FY2019 as preferred start for PINCOME macro model estimation |
| TY2019 | Capital gains exclusion capped at $875K | Revenue-positive — reduced exclusion for large gains | Affects PIEST and PIPAID in high capital gain years |
| TY2022 | New Child Tax Credit ($1,000 refundable per eligible child ≤5); EITC increased to 38% federal | Revenue-negative — increased refundable credits suppress PIREF net | Affects PIREF; PIPAID net of refunds |
| TY2025 | EITC increased to 100% federal for filers without qualifying children; child tax credit age extended to 6; military retirement exclusion expanded | Revenue-negative — further credit expansion | Most recent structural change; partially in FY2026 data |
Recommended PINCOME/PIWITH/PIEST estimation window: FY2019–FY2025 for the current bracket system. FY2019 is the first full year after the 2018 reform. The 2022 credit expansions are a minor secondary break within this window that can be handled with a dummy variable if needed.
| Effective | Change | Direction | Modeling Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 1, 2003 | Rate increase from 5% to 6% | Revenue-positive | Structural upward level shift; use post-FY2004 for rate-consistent history |
| FY2020 (2019 legislation) | Marketplace facilitators (Amazon, eBay, etc.) required to collect and remit S&U on third-party sales | Revenue-positive — large previously uncollected base now taxable | Structural upward shift beginning FY2020; significant and likely persistent. Preferred estimation window: FY2020–FY2025 |
| July 1, 2024 (FY2025) | Prewritten computer software accessed remotely (cloud software) subject to S&U | Revenue-positive — new taxable base | Structural upward shift beginning H2 FY2025; relevant for FY2026 nowcast as tailwind |
Recommended S&U estimation window: FY2020–FY2025 for marketplace-facilitator-era collections. The cloud software expansion (FY2025) is too recent to estimate from but should be noted as an additional structural tailwind in FY2026 and beyond.
| Effective | Change | Direction | Modeling Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY1998 | Rate increased from 7% to 9% (current general rate); 10% alcohol component maintained | Revenue-positive | Last major rate change; post-FY1998 rate structure is current |
| August 1, 2021 | Meal delivery platform facilitators (DoorDash-type) required to collect and remit meals tax | Revenue-positive — previously uncollected delivery charge now taxable | Structural upward shift beginning FY2022. Analogous to marketplace facilitator rule for S&U. Preferred estimation window: FY2022–FY2025 |
| August 1, 2024 (FY2025) | 3% surcharge on short-term rentals | Revenue-positive — new STR surcharge captured in CALM M&R | STR surcharge is tracked separately in MRT_STR_MONTHLY; relevant for nowcast decomposition. Structural upward shift beginning FY2025 |
Recommended M&R estimation window: FY2022–FY2025 for meal delivery platform-era collections. The STR surcharge (FY2025) adds a further structural tailwind in FY2026 that MRT_STR_MONTHLY can help quantify.
| Effective | Change | Direction | Modeling Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2015 | Rate increased to $3.08 per pack (current rate); smokeless tobacco to $2.57/oz | Revenue-positive (rate) but offset by consumption decline | Last rate change; FY2016 onward is rate-consistent. Secular consumption decline dominates |
| FY2020 (2019 legislation) | E-cigarettes subject to 92% wholesale price tax | Revenue-positive — new base | Partially offsets cigarette volume decline; relevant for CIG CALM column interpretation |
Recommended CIG estimation window: FY2016–FY2025 for current rate regime. Include explicit time trend to capture secular consumption decline.
| CALM Category | Preferred Window | Primary Structural Break | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| CORP | FY2022–FY2025 | PTET (FY2021), apportionment overhaul (FY2024) | Only 4–5 observations; individual filer data essential |
| ESTATE | FY2022–FY2025 | $5.0M exclusion (FY2021) | Only 4 observations; pipeline method primary |
| PINCOME/PIWITH/PIEST | FY2019–FY2025 | 2018 PIT reform (FY2019) | 7 observations; consider 2022 credit expansion dummy |
| S&U | FY2020–FY2025 | Marketplace facilitator (FY2020) | 6 observations; cloud software tailwind from FY2025 |
| M&R | FY2022–FY2025 | Meal delivery platform (FY2022) | 4 observations; STR surcharge tailwind from FY2025 |
| CIG | FY2016–FY2025 | Rate freeze at $3.08 (FY2016) | 10 observations; include time trend |
| GAS | FY2010–FY2025 | No rate changes; secular decline | Include time trend |
| MVP&U | FY2010–FY2025 | No structural breaks | Mechanistic predictor (motor vehicle PCE) preferred |
| INSUR | FY2010–FY2025 | No structural breaks | |
| BANK | FY2020–FY2025 | Monthly filing (FY2017); short series | Treat with caution |
General observation: The preferred estimation windows for the most revenue-significant categories (CORP, ESTATE, M&R) are extremely short — 4 to 5 observations — which means macro regression models will be poorly identified for these categories. This further reinforces the primacy of the individual filer data approach for CORP and ESTATE, and the importance of using the full longer history with regime dummies as a robustness check rather than the primary estimation strategy.
BIT/source tax revenue mapping — RESOLVED (May 2026). BIT maps to CORP in source tax revenues.
CIT_PMT_CUM threshold definition — SQL definition underlying CIT_PMT_CUM must be confirmed to resolve the discrepancy with CIT_PMT_ANNUAL. Status: UNRESOLVED.
CIT_CARRYFORWARD regime change — PARTIALLY RESOLVED (May 2026). Two competing explanations identified: (1) extension lag — FY2025 carryforward generation expected to appear after summer 2026 due to late corporate filing, with one known case of a five-year filing lag; (2) structural suppression — corporate minimum tax increase from $750 to $100,000 and 2023 Finnigan methodology shift have rendered carryforwards stranded assets for a larger pool of corporations. Diagnostic window: post-summer 2026.
EST_EXT_100K cross-reference — RESOLVED IN PRINCIPLE (May 2026). Tax Department acknowledged the account identifier mismatch between EST-XXXXXXXX and decedent SSN/V-ID formats and will provide revised files. Cross-referencing with ESTATE_FILINGS pending receipt.
MPYRTN accounts in EST_EXT_100K — LIKELY RESOLVED PENDING FILES (May 2026). Expected to be addressed when Tax Department delivers revised EST_EXT_100K files. Verify upon receipt.
Remaining files not yet analyzed — BIT_PMT_CUM, WHT_FILINGS, MRT_STR_MONTHLY, BFT_RTN, BIT_CIT_NORETURN, CAPGAIN_SUM.
Short estimation windows — For CORP, ESTATE, and M&R, the preferred post-break estimation windows contain only 4–5 observations, insufficient for reliable macro regression. Consider whether longer windows with explicit regime dummies or a Bayesian approach with informative priors would be preferable.
NRW/source tax revenue mapping — RESOLVED (May 2026). NRW maps to CORP in source tax revenues.
HBREV and TRNHIG collection rates — PARTIALLY RESOLVED (May 2026). HBREV is a temporary high-balance pending review status; TRNHIG is an analogous high-balance pending review status. Typical collection rates and resolution timelines for both remain unconfirmed.