Global Inflation Analyzer

The Problem

How stable are prices globally, and where is inflation heading?

• World Bank inflation data covers 200+ countries over decades

• Raw data is hard to interpret without statistical tools

• Policymakers and analysts need quick, visual insights

Our Solution

An interactive Shiny app with three core analyses:

1. Volatility Analysis - Rolling standard deviation of inflation changes - Classification: Low / Moderate / High / Extreme

2. Inflation Forecasting - 3-year predictions via exponential smoothing - 95% confidence intervals

3. Data Exploration - Interactive Plotly charts with trend lines - Summary statistics and raw data tables

Assumption: The app and presentation were developed assuming that the current year is 2024 and the inflation rate prediction is for the next 3 years (2025, 2026, 2027)

Live R Code Demo

# Compute volatility from recent inflation data
inflation <- c(1.8, 1.2, 4.7, 8.0, 4.1)
changes <- diff(inflation)
volatility <- sd(changes)

changes

[1] -0.6  3.5  3.3 -3.9

round(volatility, 2)

[1] 3.53

• Volatility of 3.53% shows moderate price instability.

User Experience

Simple Controls:

• Country dropdown (all World Bank nations)

• Inflation range slider

• Year range slider

Instant Outputs:

• Interactive charts with zoom/hover/pan

• Automatic updates on any input change

• No coding or statistics knowledge needed

Try It Yourself

Live Application:
Shiny App

Source Code:
GitHub Repository

Key Technologies:

• R + Shiny + Quarto Presentation + RPubs + Github

• World Bank CPI data (FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG)

• Exponential smoothing forecasts