Brookline Override 2026 โ Election Night Projection
As precincts report, a ridge regression fits 2026 results against three 2023 baselines (Q1 Pierce, Q2A Operating, Q2B Override+Composting). The model starts from a Q2A-weighted prior and updates as evidence comes in โ with 0 precincts reporting, projection is Q2A; by mid-night, the data dominates.
๐ก Type 2026 Yes & No vote counts in the yellow cells as each precinct reports.
Model
Ridge regression initialized at Q2A prior โ waiting for precinct results.
Projected YES
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Projected NO
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Projected Margin
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No precincts reporting yet
How to use: as each precinct's results come in, type the 2026 Yes and No vote totals into that row. The "Reported" checkbox auto-checks once you enter both. Unreported precincts are projected from the 2023 baseline plus the average swing of reported precincts (weighted by current turnout). To override expected turnout for a precinct (e.g. you hear that turnout is way up), edit the "Expected Turnout" cell.