Study design and data sources

This analysis uses edition-level baseline and pre-post summary data from the most recent available WEC editions in Kenya and Rwanda. For Kenya, the analysis covers WEC-KE-4, WEC-KE-5, and WEC-KE-6. For Rwanda, it covers WEC-RW-3, WEC-RW-4, and WEC-RW-5.

The analysis draws on matched pre-post data, where learners included in the analysis had both baseline and endline responses. The available dataset includes the mean baseline score, baseline standard deviation, mean endline score, endline standard deviation, sample size, p-value from paired t-tests, computed change scores, reverse-coding indicators, adjusted change scores, approximate effect sizes, significance flags, and direction of change.

The RPubs edition reports provide the analytical context for the WEC pre-post analysis series. The structured dataset used in this R Markdown file is based on the cleaned and recomputed table extracted from the WEC longitudinal summary PDF.

Editions included

Reverse-coded factors

Four factors are treated as reverse-coded constructs:

• Entrepreneurial intention – EI1
• Entrepreneurial intention – EI2
• Entrepreneurial mindset – EM1
• Entrepreneurial mindset – EM2

For these factors, lower endline scores are interpreted as improvement. For all other factors, higher endline scores are interpreted as improvement. This adjustment is important because raw post-minus-pre change scores would otherwise misclassify the direction of change for reverse-coded constructs.

Analytical approach

Analytical Approach

This study adopts a descriptive and comparative analytical approach to examine whether baseline entrepreneurial competencies among WEC participants have increased over time, and whether such trends help explain variation in observed pre-post programme impacts.

Overall Patterns

The analysis reveals clear variation in the direction of change across WEC editions, with distinct patterns emerging over time in both Kenya and Rwanda. Across all editions, a consistent finding is that applied entrepreneurial competencies such as taking action and initiative, opportunity recognition, opportunity assessment, innovative problem-solving, resourcefulness, working with others, and money sense show strong and stable improvements. In contrast, entrepreneurial intentions and mindset-related constructs, particularly those that are reverse-coded, display more variability and, in several cases, significant declines.

Kenya Trends (WEC-KE-4 to WEC-KE-6)

A clear temporal pattern emerges across the three Kenya editions.

In WEC-KE-4, improvements are concentrated in applied competencies and entrepreneurial experience, while most mindset and intention-related factors show no significant change. This suggests moderate baseline levels with room for improvement primarily in behavioural and skills-based domains.

In WEC-KE-5, there is a broader spread of improvements, including gains in entrepreneurial experience, intentions (EI1 and EI2), resilience, and a wide range of applied competencies. However, several constructs such as need to achieve, need for autonomy, values driven, and entrepreneurial mindset (EM2) show significant declines. This mixed pattern suggests that while learners improved in action-oriented competencies, certain attitudinal or preference-based constructs shifted in the opposite direction.

In WEC-KE-6, the pattern shifts more noticeably. While core applied competencies continue to show consistent improvement, there is a marked increase in the number of factors that decline, particularly in entrepreneurial intentions (EI1 and EI2), entrepreneurial mindset (EM2), need to achieve, need for autonomy, resilience, and values driven. Compared with earlier editions, fewer domains show improvement, and declines are more concentrated.

Importantly, several of the declining constructs in WEC-KE-6 are those that are reverse-coded. When interpreted alongside baseline trends, this pattern is consistent with a possible ceiling effect, where learners may be entering the programme with higher baseline levels in certain constructs, reducing the scope for further measurable improvement. This is particularly relevant for intention and mindset variables, which are more sensitive to initial positioning.

Overall, the Kenya results suggest a trajectory in which:

• Early editions show moderate improvements with stable baselines
• Mid editions show broader but mixed changes
• The most recent edition shows fewer improvements and more declines, particularly in attitudinal constructs

Rwanda Trends (WEC-RW-3 to WEC-RW-5)

The Rwanda results show a different trajectory compared with Kenya, with more stable and, in later editions, more positive patterns.

In WEC-RW-3, most factors show no significant change, with improvements concentrated in entrepreneurial experience, entrepreneurial mindset (EM1), intentions (EI2), and action-oriented competencies. This suggests relatively limited overall movement, likely reflecting lower baseline engagement or shorter exposure effects.

In WEC-RW-4, the pattern becomes more polarized. While applied competencies continue to improve strongly, several intention and mindset constructs, including EI1, EI2, EM2, and values driven, show significant declines. However, unlike Kenya, there is also evidence of improvement in resilience and continued gains across core skills-based competencies.

In WEC-RW-5, the pattern shifts towards more consistent improvement. A larger number of factors show positive change, including entrepreneurial experience, resilience, need for autonomy, values driven, and all major applied competencies. While declines persist in intention-related constructs (EI1 and EI2) and entrepreneurial mindset measures, the overall balance of change is more positive compared with earlier Rwanda editions.

Overall, the Rwanda trajectory suggests:

• Early editions characterised by limited change
• Mid editions showing mixed improvements and declines
• Recent editions demonstrating broader and more consistent improvements across competencies

Cross-Country Comparison

Comparing Kenya and Rwanda reveals important differences.

First, applied entrepreneurial competencies improve consistently across both countries and all editions, indicating that WEC is particularly effective in strengthening action-oriented skills regardless of context.

Second, entrepreneurial intention and mindset constructs show more volatility, with frequent declines across both countries. However, these declines are more pronounced and concentrated in recent Kenya editions, particularly WEC-KE-6.

Third, while Rwanda shows a pattern of increasing improvements over time, Kenya shows a pattern of declining improvements in the most recent edition. This divergence is consistent with the hypothesis that learners in Kenya may be entering with higher baseline levels in recent cohorts, particularly in attitudinal constructs, leading to reduced measurable gains.

Kenya: Evidence of Increasing Baseline Scores in Selected Competencies

The analysis of baseline scores across WEC-KE-4, WEC-KE-5, and WEC-KE-6 reveals a selective but meaningful pattern of increasing baseline values across several entrepreneurial competencies. These upward trends are not uniform across all factors, but they are clearly concentrated in specific factors

Among the most consistent increases are observed in entrepreneurial experience, taking action and initiative, opportunity recognition, opportunity assessment, innovative problem-solving, and resourcefulness. These competencies show a steady rise in baseline scores across the three editions, indicating that learners in more recent cohorts are entering the programme with stronger applied entrepreneurial capabilities.

In addition, working with others and money sense also exhibit gradual upward trends, although the magnitude of change is more moderate. These competencies, which are closely linked to collaboration and financial awareness, appear to be strengthening over time at entry into the programme.

In contrast, entrepreneurial intention (EI1 and EI2) and entrepreneurial mindset constructs (EM1 and EM2) do not show consistent upward trends. In several cases, baseline scores fluctuate or remain relatively stable across editions. This suggests that while learners may be entering with stronger practical and skills-based competencies, attitudinal and preference-based constructs are not improving at the same rate prior to programme participation.

Similarly, factors such as need to achieve, need for autonomy, resilience, and values driven show either stable or slightly declining baseline patterns, indicating that these deeper motivational constructs are less sensitive to cohort-level shifts over time.

Overall, the Kenya results provide partial support for the hypothesis of increasing baseline scores. The upward trend is most evident in applied and action-oriented competencies, while mindset and intention-related constructs remain relatively unchanged. This pattern suggests that learners in WEC-KE-6 may have entered the programme with stronger baseline capabilities in areas where the programme traditionally drives improvement, potentially reducing the observable magnitude of post-programme gains.

Rwanda: Gradual Upward Trends with Broader Improvement in Recent Editions

The Rwanda results, covering WEC-RW-3, WEC-RW-4, and WEC-RW-5, show a more gradual but broader pattern of increasing baseline scores across competencies.

Unlike Kenya, where increases are concentrated in specific domains, Rwanda demonstrates a more even upward shift across a wider set of entrepreneurial factors. Competencies such as entrepreneurial experience, taking action and initiative, opportunity recognition, opportunity assessment, innovative problem-solving, and resourcefulness all show clear increases in baseline scores over time, consistent with the pattern observed in Kenya.

In addition, Rwanda shows more noticeable upward movement in resilience, need for autonomy, and values driven, suggesting that learners in more recent cohorts may be entering with stronger motivational and attitudinal profiles compared with earlier editions. This distinguishes Rwanda from Kenya, where these constructs remain relatively stable.

Entrepreneurial intention and mindset constructs (EI1, EI2, EM1, and EM2) again show more variability, with no consistent upward trend across all editions. However, the magnitude of fluctuation appears smaller compared with Kenya, and there is less evidence of stagnation or decline at baseline.

Overall, the Rwanda trajectory suggests a more balanced increase in baseline scores across both applied competencies and selected motivational constructs, indicating that learners are entering the programme with progressively stronger profiles across multiple dimensions.

Cross-Country Comparison: Diverging Baseline Dynamics

Comparing Kenya and Rwanda reveals important differences in how baseline scores have evolved over time.

First, both countries show consistent increases in applied entrepreneurial factors, particularly those related to action, opportunity identification, and problem-solving. This suggests a broader ecosystem-level shift, where learners are increasingly exposed to entrepreneurial thinking prior to participating in WEC.

Second, the pattern differs for mindset and intention-related constructs. In Kenya, these factors remain relatively flat or inconsistent across editions, while in Rwanda there is evidence of modest upward movement in selected motivational domains. This indicates that the evolution of baseline profiles may be context-specific and influenced by country-level factors.

Third, the concentration of baseline increases in Kenya within already high-performing applied factors supports the interpretation of a potential ceiling effect, particularly in WEC-KE-6. As learners enter with stronger initial scores in these domains, the scope for further measurable improvement is reduced, which may contribute to the observed decline in the number of significantly improved factors in recent editions.

Implications

The baseline trends provide important context for interpreting the results of WEC-KE-6. The evidence suggests that learners are entering the programme with stronger baseline scores in several key competencies, particularly those that the programme is designed to improve.

As a result, the reduced number of statistically significant improvements observed in WEC-KE-6 should not be interpreted solely as a decline in programme effectiveness. Instead, it likely reflects a combination of higher starting points and reduced headroom for measurable gains, especially in applied competencies.

This reinforces the importance of interpreting pre-post changes in relation to baseline levels. In contexts where baseline scores are already high, maintaining strong performance and achieving marginal gains may be equally meaningful, even if statistical improvements are less pronounced.

Interpretations

Across both countries, baseline scores show evidence of increasing over time, particularly for applied entrepreneurial competencies. This trend is more concentrated in Kenya and more broadly distributed in Rwanda. The findings support the hypothesis that higher baseline scores, especially in WEC-KE-6, may partially explain the observed decline in the number of improved competencies, highlighting the role of ceiling effects in interpreting programme outcomes.