Doritos Pricing Analysis

Purpose

This document explains and shows Doritos pricing analysis so we can clearly describe and write about our survey findings in the final write-up. We’re trying to explain the logic behind our methods so we can make critical recommendations for our client.

Where the Data Came From

The data set we used came from model_1_regular_doritos_price_table.csv and model_2_variant_full_price_table.csv. These contained the (surveyed) predicted purchase probabilities and price index for prices (in dollars) for the Regular Doritos, Low-Calorie Doritos, Limited-Edition Doritos, Protein Doritos, and Clean-Label Doritos at: $3, $4, $5, $6, $7, $8.

Exhibit 1. Regular Doritos Revenue Index by Price

Figure 1: Regular Doritos earns its highest expected revenue at $4

Takeaway. Revenue index peaks at $4 (3.65) and collapses to 0.76 at $7. Regular Doritos has a higher expected revenue at 4 dollars and not 7.

Exhibit 2. Regular Doritos Predicted Purchase Probability by Price

Figure 2: Demand for Regular Doritos falls sharply as price rises, explaining why $7 underperforms.

Takeaway. Only about 10.9% of customers would buy Regular Doritos at $7, vs. 91.2% at $4. The demand curve can explain why the $7 pricing has hurt Frito-lay’s internal revenue targets for 2 years in a row by billions of dollars.

Exhibit 3. Premium Variant Revenue Index by Price

Figure 3: All four premium variants peak at $5, while Regular Doritos peaks at $4.

Takeaway. The premium variants all peak at $5 while the regular peak at $4. Protein is the strongest performer at $5 (4.44) and also holds up best at $6–$7, reinforcing the premium-pricing case.

Final Recommendation

Product Type	Recommended Price
Regular Doritos	$4
Low-Calorie Doritos	$5
Limited-Edition Doritos	$5
Protein Doritos	$5
Clean-Label Doritos	$5