The main kind of analysis that I have been conducting this past semester has been exploring whether patterns emerge between different categories of observations.

I started this analysis by looking at four main groups of within this analysis: 1) Relationships between precursors and their following symptoms 2) symptoms and their following symptoms 3) symptoms and their following acts of resistance 4) acts of resistance following other acts of resistance.

All of the following tables and subsequent forms of analysis use a 6 month window to determine which following events to include for observation. ie. Take an event that has the category of precursor, let’s call it event1. A symptom that occurs within 6 months of event1 will be counted into the analysis but a symptom that occurs 10 months following a precursor will not be counted in relation event1.

Distribution of Precursors Precedings Symptoms by Regime
Category of Precursor Closed Autocracy Electoral Autocracy Electoral Democracy Liberal Democracy
Co-optation of Citizens 3 35 5 0
Co-optation of the Opposition 8 87 14 2
Delegitimizing or Weakening Subnational Units 8 29 15 5
Delegitimizing or Weakening the Judiciary 28 171 189 19
Delegitimizing or Weakening the Legislature 2 169 95 14
Democratic Facade 129 130 30 4
Electoral Boycott 5 266 25 2
Electoral Fraud and Voter Suppression 16 718 82 9
Ethno-Religious Tensions 52 239 103 40
External Shocks (Economic, Health, Natural Disasters) 12 10 102 31
Horizontal Corruption 83 439 315 88
Increased Surveillance 169 241 64 42
Increasing Control over Civil Society 242 794 211 32
Lack of Legitimacy 23 136 72 21
Malapportionment 6 73 40 2
Manipulation of Civil Service or Integrity Institutions 24 196 125 24
Media Bias 54 334 141 109
No-Confidence Votes or Decreased Voter Turnout 36 211 69 28
Opposition Alliance Hedging 1 7 12 1
Overstayed Welcome 19 74 2 0
Polarization 2 24 53 14
Rhetorical Attacks against Democracy or Accountability Institutions 8 142 54 27
State-Conducted Violence or Abuse 692 2190 750 156
Vertical Corruption 50 244 242 139
Electoral Violence 0 235 88 2
Party Weakness 0 44 33 28
Border Disputes 0 0 4 7
External Influence or Invasion 0 0 104 30
Extremist/Populist Parties 0 0 49 67
Non-state Violence 0 0 574 124
Refugee Crisis 0 0 53 41
Regional Unrest Spillover 0 0 9 1
Rejecting Election Results 0 0 62 6
Note:
This table shows the frequency of every precursor that precedes a symptom within a 6 month window and disaggregated by regime type.
Distribution of Symptoms Preceding Symptoms by Regime
Category of Precursor Closed Autocracy Electoral Autocracy Electoral Democracy Liberal Democracy
Creation of Parallel Structures 8 81 10 5
Curtailed Civil Liberties 2284 4565 886 223
Discrimination against Minorities 318 773 234 127
Forced/Coerced Exile 30 203 12 6
Foreign Military Action 5 35 0 0
Media Repression 1574 5469 1293 215
Militarization of Civilian Governance 10 27 18 0
Politicization of the Education System 123 395 71 10
Purging of Elites 174 194 31 9
Reducing Autonomy of Subnational Units 7 87 10 9
Reduction in Judicial Independence 136 311 197 35
Reduction in Legislative Oversight 32 203 69 18
Relaxation of Term Limits 58 103 47 0
Repression of the Opposition 609 3504 411 16
Revision of the Constitution 83 213 78 9
State-controlled Media 188 178 16 5
Suspension of Laws or the Constitution 58 191 113 15
Systematic Violence against Minorities or Ethnic Cleansing 39 31 17 5
Systemic Electoral Violence 1 7 2 0
Systemic Reduction in Election Freedom and Fairness 125 856 110 13
Weakened Civil Service or Integrity Institutions 35 325 157 40
Anti-Democratic Mobilization 0 12 3 0
Coup or Regime Collapse 0 0 38 0
External Shocks (Economic, Health, Natural Disasters) 0 0 2 0
Note:
This table shows the frequency of every symptom that precedes another symptom within a 6 month window and disaggregated by regime type.
Distribution of Symptoms Preceding Resistance by Regime
Category of Precursor Closed Autocracy Electoral Autocracy Electoral Democracy Liberal Democracy
Creation of Parallel Structures 1 17 13 3
Curtailed Civil Liberties 649 1466 630 381
Discrimination against Minorities 66 338 229 190
Forced/Coerced Exile 17 79 17 4
Foreign Military Action 2 10 0 0
Media Repression 583 2222 1093 371
Militarization of Civilian Governance 8 2 11 0
Politicization of the Education System 39 170 80 32
Purging of Elites 37 67 35 4
Reducing Autonomy of Subnational Units 2 30 9 13
Reduction in Judicial Independence 36 121 187 31
Reduction in Legislative Oversight 10 88 67 28
Relaxation of Term Limits 9 49 37 0
Repression of the Opposition 175 1024 260 38
Revision of the Constitution 24 48 81 20
State-controlled Media 46 73 17 25
Suspension of Laws or the Constitution 27 102 87 20
Systematic Violence against Minorities or Ethnic Cleansing 2 20 5 1
Systemic Electoral Violence 4 0 2 0
Systemic Reduction in Election Freedom and Fairness 61 389 91 12
Weakened Civil Service or Integrity Institutions 20 138 111 32
Anti-Democratic Mobilization 0 0 1 0
Coup or Regime Collapse 0 0 35 1
External Shocks (Economic, Health, Natural Disasters) 0 0 6 0
Note:
This table shows the frequency of every symptom that precedes an act of resistance within a 6 month window and disaggregated by regime type.
Distribution of Resistance Preceding Resistance by Regime
Category of Precursor Closed Autocracy Electoral Autocracy Electoral Democracy Liberal Democracy
Check on Central Power by Civil Service 10 29 111 31
Check on Central Power by Subnational Units 9 16 24 30
Check on Executive by Judiciary 34 229 390 175
Check on Executive by Legislature 27 98 148 66
Coalitions or Elite Pacts 36 89 48 31
Exit of People or Capital Flight 7 38 7 0
Increase in Civic Capacity 67 119 140 57
Increase in Civil Liberties 250 311 377 400
Increase in Electoral Integrity 38 180 155 57
Increase in Media Protections/Media Liberalization 61 114 127 58
Increase in Organized Opposition 23 112 85 34
Nonviolent Protest 237 1082 974 447
Pressure from Outside Actor 79 706 411 188
State Attempts at Democratization or to Prevent Backsliding 190 619 939 571
Transfer of Power from Authoritarian Leaders 39 63 17 6
Transition to a Democratic Constitution 49 17 25 8
Violent Protest 41 351 304 151
Note:
This table shows the frequency of acts of resistance that precedes an act of resistance within a 6 month window and disaggregated by regime type.
Most Common Precursors Preceeding Symptomps in Democracies (within 6 Months)
Category of Precursor Democracy
State-Conducted Violence or Abuse 906
Non-state Violence 698
Horizontal Corruption 403
Vertical Corruption 381
Media Bias 250
Increasing Control over Civil Society 243
Delegitimizing or Weakening the Judiciary 208
Ethno-Religious Tensions 143
Increased Surveillance 106
Electoral Fraud and Voter Suppression 91
Most Common Precursors Preceding Symptoms in Autocracies (within 6 Months)
Category of Precursor Autocracy (count)
State-Conducted Violence or Abuse 2882
Increasing Control over Civil Society 1036
Electoral Fraud and Voter Suppression 734
Horizontal Corruption 522
Increased Surveillance 410
Media Bias 388
Vertical Corruption 294
Ethno-Religious Tensions 291
Electoral Boycott 271
Democratic Facade 259
Most Common Symptoms Preceeding Other Symptomps in Democracies (within 6 Months)
Category of First Symptom Democracy
Curtailed Civil Liberties 1109
Discrimination against Minorities 361
Media Repression 1508
Politicization of the Education System 81
Purging of Elites 40
Reduction in Judicial Independence 232
Repression of the Opposition 427
State-controlled Media 21
Systemic Reduction in Election Freedom and Fairness 123
Weakened Civil Service or Integrity Institutions 197
Most Common Symptoms Preceding Symptoms in Autocracies (within 6 Months)
Category of Symptom Autocracy (count)
Media Repression 7043
Curtailed Civil Liberties 6849
Repression of the Opposition 4113
Discrimination against Minorities 1091
Systemic Reduction in Election Freedom and Fairness 981
Politicization of the Education System 518
Reduction in Judicial Independence 447
Purging of Elites 368
State-controlled Media 366
Weakened Civil Service or Integrity Institutions 360
Most Common Symptoms Preceeding Resistance in Democracies (within 6 Months)
Category of Symptom Democracy
Media Repression 1464
Curtailed Civil Liberties 1011
Discrimination against Minorities 419
Repression of the Opposition 298
Reduction in Judicial Independence 218
Weakened Civil Service or Integrity Institutions 143
Politicization of the Education System 112
Suspension of Laws or the Constitution 107
Systemic Reduction in Election Freedom and Fairness 103
Revision of the Constitution 101
Most Common Symptoms Preceding Resistance in Autocracies (within 6 Months)
Category of Symptom Autocracy (count)
Media Repression 2805
Curtailed Civil Liberties 2115
Repression of the Opposition 1199
Systemic Reduction in Election Freedom and Fairness 450
Discrimination against Minorities 404
Politicization of the Education System 209
Weakened Civil Service or Integrity Institutions 158
Reduction in Judicial Independence 157
Suspension of Laws or the Constitution 129
State-controlled Media 119
Most Common Resistance Preceeding Other Resistance in Democracies (within 6 Months)
Category of First Resistance Democracy
Check on Executive by Judiciary 565
Check on Executive by Legislature 214
Increase in Civic Capacity 197
Increase in Civil Liberties 777
Increase in Electoral Integrity 212
Increase in Media Protections/Media Liberalization 185
Nonviolent Protest 1421
Pressure from Outside Actor 599
State Attempts at Democratization or to Prevent Backsliding 1510
Violent Protest 455
Most Common Resistance Preceding Resistance in Autocracies (within 6 Months)
Category of Resistance Autocracy (count)
Nonviolent Protest 1319
State Attempts at Democratization or to Prevent Backsliding 809
Pressure from Outside Actor 785
Increase in Civil Liberties 561
Violent Protest 392
Check on Executive by Judiciary 263
Increase in Electoral Integrity 218
Increase in Civic Capacity 186
Increase in Media Protections/Media Liberalization 175
Increase in Organized Opposition 135

This graph is aimed at analyzing if there is a relationship between the rise in precursors occurring in a nation and the rise of symptoms occurring. This graph is counting up precursors and symptoms by year with no consideration for when in the year these events occur.

This graph is aimed at analyzing if there is a relationship between the rise in precursors occurring in a nation and the rise of symptoms occurring. This graph is using the date of precursors and symptoms in terms of month and year.

This graph above is highlighting what percent of the total of a specific symptom is occurring after a precursor. Symptoms that have a high share of occurrence within 6 months following a precursor, tells us that when a actor carries out that symptom, it may be indicating of something larger. This graph is not dis-aggregated by regime type.

This graph above is similar to the previous bar-graph, but it’s only lookin at data from democracies.

This graph above is similar to the previous bar-graph, but it’s only lookin at data from autocracies

Analysis Explanation: To analyze the sequencing of democratic erosion, I use within-country fixed effects regressions (FEOLS), which allow me to compare each country to itself over time while controlling for persistent differences across countries. Because the original DEED dataset is organized at the level of individual events, I first restructure the data into a country–month panel. This involves creating a panel base that includes every country and every month between its first and last observation, including months in which no events occur. This produces a balanced panel with 42561 observations. Within this panel, I generate indicator variables for whether a given country-month contains a precursor event or a symptom event, and I construct a key explanatory variable that captures whether a precursor occurred within a specified time window (e.g., the previous 6 or 12 months), excluding the current month.

Using this structure, I estimate a regression for every possible precursor–symptom pair to determine whether specific precursor events tend to precede specific symptoms within countries over time. Each regression evaluates whether the presence of a precursor in the recent past increases the likelihood of observing a given symptom. I then focus on statistically significant relationships and summarize the strongest patterns. The estimated coefficients can be interpreted as changes in probability: for example, a coefficient of 0.06 implies that the occurrence of a given precursor is associated with a 6 percentage point increase in the probability of observing the corresponding symptom in subsequent months, holding constant country-level factors. This approach provides a systematic and interpretable way to identify which types of democratic erosion events tend to occur first.

head(results_df_clean,10)
## # A tibble: 10 × 6
##    precursor_category         symptom_category estimate std_error  p_value n_obs
##    <chr>                      <chr>               <dbl>     <dbl>    <dbl> <int>
##  1 Co-optation of Citizens    Curtailed Civil…   0.0756   0.0360  3.56e- 2 42561
##  2 Malapportionment           Media Repression   0.0749   0.0153  9.08e- 7 42561
##  3 Co-optation of Citizens    Repression of t…   0.0581   0.0264  2.81e- 2 42561
##  4 Co-optation of Citizens    Systemic Reduct…   0.0572   0.0138  3.54e- 5 42561
##  5 Overstayed Welcome         Curtailed Civil…   0.0477   0.0165  3.83e- 3 42561
##  6 Increasing Control over C… Curtailed Civil…   0.0352   0.00479 1.81e-13 42561
##  7 Electoral Violence         Curtailed Civil…   0.0347   0.00758 4.77e- 6 42561
##  8 Manipulation of Civil Ser… Media Repression   0.0343   0.00905 1.51e- 4 42561
##  9 Opposition Alliance Hedgi… Repression of t…   0.0332   0.0167  4.70e- 2 42561
## 10 Co-optation of Citizens    Forced/Coerced …   0.0326   0.00697 2.86e- 6 42561