Importance of Research

On January 7, 2026 Governor Ron DeSantis called a special legislative session to engage in mid-decade redistricting. Citing the lack of “legal impediment” to engaging in mid-decade redistricting (otherwise only doing so decennially following the Census), the Governor’s proclamation cited the ongoing U.S. Supreme Court case, Louisiana v. Callais, No. 24-109, as further justification. The Supreme Court’s ruling on this case will determine if redistricting on the basis of racial minority-majority considerations as a means of complying with the 1965 Voting Rights Act violates the fourteenth and fifteenth amendments to the United States Constitution. Therefore, this prompts several questions on the impact that redistricting has on voter turnout.

Research Question

Is redistricting correlated to a change in turnout?

Hypothesis

A negative correlation exists between the occurrence of redistricting and an increase in voter turnout for voters whose districts changed as a result.

Variables

Overall Voter Turnout in Mecklenburg County

Voter Turnout in 2020 vs. 2022 by Redistricting Status

Turnout Change by Specific District Reassignment

Difference-in-Differences: Redistricted vs. Stayed in District 12

Difference-in-Differences by Race

Difference-in-Differences by Sex

Difference-in-Differences by Age Group

Difference-in-Differences by Party

Conclusion and Future Research

The results indicate the existence of a negative correlation, however, in our difference in differences analysis, we can see that those who were redistricted exhibited higher turnout than those who were not. As registered voters in district 12 during the 2020 election exhibited a 68.5% turnout rate, and in 2022 exhibited a 40.4% turnout rate, the difference between the two is 28.1%. Whereas, of those registered voters who were redistricted, they exhibited a 72.3% turnout rate in 2020 and a 46.6% turnout rate in 2022 — making for a difference of 25.7%. The overall difference can be calculated to 2.4%. At face value, our results seem inconclusive.

Upon conducting demographic analyses on the basis of race, sex, age, and party affiliation, we begin to break down further how those who were redistricted compare to those who were not. On the basis of age, for example, we can see that those aged 18–29 exhibited much sharper decreases in turnout from 2020 to 2022 than those who lie in the 65+ category. It is important to conduct demographic analyses as it goes beyond the original scope of this project. Redistricting is one variable in impacting turnout, but who exactly was redistricted allows for a much larger examination of this phenomenon.

Additional expansion to this project includes but is not limited to: