1. Serie de Tiempo

2. Descomposición Estacional

3. Ajuste del Modelo SARIMA

4. Proyección 2026

5. Valores Reales vs Ajustados (últimos 24 meses)

Fecha Ventas Reales Ventas Ajustadas
2024-01 $221,784,171 $359,413,133
2024-02 $278,429,333 $206,949,287
2024-03 $410,929,825 $273,639,747
2024-04 $220,829,410 $264,550,416
2024-05 $311,494,957 $280,410,895
2024-06 $207,912,817 $293,826,625
2024-07 $387,475,734 $310,526,503
2024-08 $212,986,179 $328,378,239
2024-09 $418,132,529 $276,099,663
2024-10 $331,529,644 $303,868,458
2024-11 $179,827,128 $396,770,238
2024-12 $286,566,422 $300,031,032
2025-01 $141,774,663 $325,750,224
2025-02 $351,271,817 $225,087,504
2025-03 $327,133,043 $299,021,223
2025-04 $377,214,664 $283,939,758
2025-05 $278,381,298 $307,460,883
2025-06 $192,632,776 $273,161,039
2025-07 $271,092,480 $304,460,050
2025-08 $464,585,621 $309,733,637
2025-09 $301,837,428 $317,686,907
2025-10 $314,290,500 $301,760,809
2025-11 $319,838,993 $440,666,439
2025-12 $387,133,095 $328,173,841

6. Pronóstico Mensual 2026

Fecha Pronóstico IC Inf. 95% IC Sup. 95%
2026-01 $306,415,321 $82,874,047 $529,956,596
2026-02 $279,061,457 $54,510,214 $503,612,701
2026-03 $331,125,109 $106,537,052 $555,713,165
2026-04 $300,296,512 $75,706,008 $524,887,016
2026-05 $313,191,110 $88,600,432 $537,781,787
2026-06 $268,148,855 $43,558,165 $492,739,545
2026-07 $333,343,929 $108,753,238 $557,934,620
2026-08 $333,754,694 $109,164,003 $558,345,386
2026-09 $337,133,182 $112,542,482 $561,723,883
2026-10 $322,079,061 $97,488,240 $546,669,882
2026-11 $397,639,169 $173,046,668 $622,231,671
2026-12 $351,493,817 $126,878,954 $576,108,680

7. Estadísticas Descriptivas

Valor
N $84
Mínimo $60,658,983
Q1 $212,763,674
Mediana $267,279,112
Media $270,694,028
Q3 $307,762,041
Máximo $815,601,265
Desv. Est. $101,244,608

Reporte generado automáticamente con R Markdown · Modelo SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)[12]