Comparing Mortality Trends in Heart Disease, Cancer, and Stroke from 2000–2017

Week 13 Data Dive Presentation

Brian Blandino

Audience and Background

Target Audience
- Doctors, clinicians, and medical decision-makers across the United States
Why this Matters
- Supports decisions about research priorities, targeted funding, and prevention focus
- Helps identify which major causes of death may deserve greater sustained attention
Project Background
- This analysis compares mortality trends in Heart disease, Cancer, and Stroke
- The dataset covers 2000 to 2017 and includes death counts and death-rate-related measures

Primary Goal
- Compare long-term mortality patterns in Heart disease, Cancer, and Stroke from 2000 to 2017
Analytical Focus
- Evaluate differences in overall mortality burden
- Examine how age-adjusted death rates changed over time
- Determine whether the three causes followed meaningfully different patterns
Practical Purpose
- Identify which causes appear to warrant the greatest sustained public health attention
- Support decisions about research prioritization, prevention focus, and resource allocation

Dataset
- NCHS_final_2000_2017_with_population_enriched.csv
- National mortality data covering 2000 to 2017
Variables Used
- Year to measure change over time
- Cause.Name to isolate the three selected causes
- Deaths, Age.adjusted.Death.Rate (AADR), and Deaths_per_100k to compare mortality burden
Scope of the Project
- Focused on Heart disease, Cancer, and Stroke
- Designed to compare long-term mortality patterns across major causes of death

Cause Selection
- Restricted to Heart disease, Cancer, and Stroke
- Compare three major causes with clear public health importance
Cleaning Steps
- Removed United States row to prevent duplicated results
- Kept the analysis focused on state-level observations
Resulting Analytic Structure
- Each selected cause contributed the same number of observations after cleaning
- This created a balanced dataset suitable for direct comparison across causes

Overall Mortality Burden
- Heart disease showed the highest average values
- Cancer ranked second across the mortality measures
- Stroke remained substantially lower than other causes
Average Deaths
- Heart disease: 12,524.453
- Cancer: 11,213.296
- Stroke: 2,787.753

Interpretation
- The early summary statistics suggest that Heart disease carried the greatest mortality burden in this comparison
- Cancer also remained high enough to warrant strong attention
- Stroke was meaningfully lower on the major summary measures

Main Pattern
- The average age-adjusted death rate declined from 2000 to 2017 for Heart disease, Cancer, and Stroke
Relative Comparisons
- Heart disease had the highest rate across most of the study period
- Cancer also declined steadily over time
- Stroke remained much lower than the other two causes throughout the full period
Interpretation
- All three causes showed improvement over time
- Even with those declines, the three causes did not carry the same mortality burden

Main Findings
- Heart disease had the highest average number of deaths across the study period
- Cancer ranked second
- Stroke remained much lower than the other two causes
Meaning
- The summary supports the earlier trend results showing that Heart disease and Cancer carried the greatest mortality burden
- Stroke was still important, but it was substantially lower on this measure
Practical Takeaway
- Heart disease and Cancer appear to deserve the greatest sustained attention when comparing these three causes

Assumptions
- Mortality data were recorded consistently across years and states
- The selected variables were appropriate for comparing long-term mortality patterns
- The age-adjusted death rate was a reasonable measure for comparing trends over time
Limitations
- Analysis focused only on Heart disease, Cancer, and Stroke
- The study was observational, so the results identify patterns rather than causation
- Other factors affecting public health outcomes were not included in the dataset
Interpretive Caution
- Findings are primarily useful for comparison and prioritization
- They should not be treated as proof of causal relationships

Test Used
- A one-way ANOVA was used to compare the mean age-adjusted death rate across Heart disease, Cancer, and Stroke
Result
- The test produced an F-statistic of 7770
- The p-value was less than 2e-16
Interpretation
- The mean age-adjusted death rate was not the same across the three causes
- The differences were statistically meaningful rather than due to random variation alone
- This result supported the earlier visual evidence that the causes followed different mortality patterns

Overall Pattern
- Heart disease, Cancer, and Stroke all showed declines in average age-adjusted death rate from 2000 to 2017
Relative Burden
- Heart disease had the highest overall mortality burden across the major summary measures
- Cancer also remained high across the study period
- Stroke was substantially lower than the other two causes
Statistical Support
- The ANOVA results showed that the mean age-adjusted death rate differed significantly across the three causes
- The regression model showed that death rates declined over time while important differences across causes remained

Primary Recommendation
- Public health planning efforts should give the greatest sustained attention to Heart disease and Cancer
Reasoning
- Heart disease had the highest average deaths and the highest average age-adjusted death rate
- Cancer also remained high across the study period on the major mortality measures
- Stroke was important, though it was substantially lower than the other two causes in this comparison
Practical Implications
- Prevention, intervention, and research efforts should continue to prioritize Heart disease
- Strong attention should also remain on Cancer due to its consistently high mortality burden