• Interrupted time series (ITS) model
• Data observed every 3 years, 1989–2016
• 2010 treated as first post-crisis observation
• Chow test uses 2007 as the final pre-crisis breakpoint

\[\text{outcome}_t = \beta_0 + \beta_1 \text{time} + \beta_2 \text{post\_crisis} + \beta_3 \text{time\_post} + \varepsilon_t\]

• Positive pre-crisis trend (\(\hat{\beta}_1 > 0\))
• Large, significant post-crisis level drop (\(\hat{\beta}_2\))
• Post-crisis slope change not statistically significant (\(\hat{\beta}_3\))
• Chow test confirms structural break at 2007

• Breakpoint: 2007 (final pre-crisis observation)
• F = 34.946, p < 0.001
• Strong evidence of a structural break in the outcome series

• The 2008 financial crisis interrupted prior gains in Black economic well-being
• The dominant effect is a persistent level loss — outcomes dropped sharply after 2009
• The post-crisis slope (\(\hat{\beta}_3\)) is not significant: recovery did not offset the shock
• Evidence supports lasting structural harm consistent with a Chow-identified break