Introduccion

En este ejercicio se eligio la accion Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), del indice S&P 500, por su alta liquidez en el mercado de opciones y su elevada volatilidad implicita, lo que permite observar con claridad el efecto de la convexidad en derivados financieros.

El objetivo es analizar una opcion call con vencimiento cercano a un ano, simular escenarios mensuales de precio, construir las tablas y figuras de convexidad, y calcular las principales griegas (delta, gamma, theta, vega y rho).

Parametros iniciales de la opcion TSLA
Parametro Valor
Subyacente TSLA - Tesla, Inc.
Precio Spot (S0) $400.62
Strike (K) $400
Vencimiento (T) 252 dias habiles
Tasa libre de riesgo (r) 3.691%
Volatilidad implicita 0.55

En este ejercicio se adopta el ano comercial de 252 dias habiles, estandar en finanzas de mercado. Una quincena comercial equivale a maximo 11 dias habiles y 30 dias calendario corresponden a aproximadamente 22 dias habiles. Esto asegura que el valor temporal de la opcion refleje unicamente los dias en que el mercado opera activamente.

La volatilidad implicita de referencia es 55% al vencimiento final. Se aplica un decremento lineal de 2% por mes hacia la fecha inicial, dando como resultado volatilidades que van del 33% (mayo 2026) al 55% (abril 2027).

La tasa libre de riesgo se toma de la curva CME Term SOFR publicada el 16/04/2026: SOFR 12M = 3.691%.

Simulacion de escenarios mensuales

Convexidad por Vencimiento

Mayo 2026

T = 21 dias | r = 3.691% | sigma = 33%

S (USD) Call BS Lineal Convexidad
$120 0.000 0.000 0.000
$196 0.000 0.000 0.000
$272 0.000 0.000 0.000
$348 1.218 0.000 1.218
$424 31.372 28.712 2.660
$500 101.353 69.624 31.729
$576 177.229 110.535 66.694
$652 253.228 151.447 101.781
$728 329.228 192.359 136.870
$804 405.228 233.270 171.958
$880 481.228 274.182 207.047
$956 557.228 315.093 242.135
$1032 633.228 356.005 277.224

Junio 2026

T = 42 dias | r = 3.691% | sigma = 35%

S (USD) Call BS Lineal Convexidad
$120 0.000 0.000 0.000
$196 0.000 0.000 0.000
$272 0.057 0.000 0.057
$348 5.028 0.000 5.028
$424 38.956 37.155 1.800
$500 103.915 78.946 24.969
$576 178.555 120.736 57.819
$652 254.458 162.526 91.932
$728 330.453 204.316 126.137
$804 406.453 246.106 160.347
$880 482.453 287.897 194.557
$956 558.453 329.687 228.766
$1032 634.453 371.477 262.976

Julio 2026

T = 63 dias | r = 3.691% | sigma = 37%

S (USD) Call BS Lineal Convexidad
$120 0.000 0.000 0.000
$196 0.001 0.000 0.001
$272 0.468 0.000 0.468
$348 9.745 2.101 7.644
$424 46.049 44.655 1.394
$500 107.776 87.208 20.568
$576 180.381 129.761 50.620
$652 255.776 172.315 83.461
$728 331.687 214.868 116.819
$804 407.676 257.422 150.254
$880 483.674 299.975 183.699
$956 559.674 342.529 217.145
$1032 635.674 385.082 250.592

Agosto 2026

T = 84 dias | r = 3.691% | sigma = 39%

S (USD) Call BS Lineal Convexidad
$120 0.000 0.000 0.000
$196 0.016 0.000 0.016
$272 1.487 0.000 1.487
$348 14.879 8.541 6.339
$424 52.938 51.793 1.145
$500 112.498 95.045 17.453
$576 182.973 138.297 44.676
$652 257.409 181.549 75.860
$728 333.013 224.801 108.211
$804 408.919 268.054 140.865
$880 484.897 311.306 173.592
$956 560.893 354.558 206.335
$1032 636.891 397.810 239.081

Septiembre 2026

T = 105 dias | r = 3.691% | sigma = 41%

S (USD) Call BS Lineal Convexidad
$120 0.000 0.000 0.000
$196 0.095 0.000 0.095
$272 3.163 0.000 3.163
$348 20.274 14.864 5.410
$424 59.750 58.778 0.972
$500 117.810 102.691 15.119
$576 186.347 146.604 39.742
$652 259.561 190.518 69.043
$728 334.589 234.431 100.158
$804 410.263 278.345 131.919
$880 486.156 322.258 163.898
$956 562.122 366.171 195.950
$1032 638.110 410.085 228.025

Octubre 2026

T = 126 dias | r = 3.691% | sigma = 43%

S (USD) Call BS Lineal Convexidad
$120 0.001 0.000 0.001
$196 0.319 0.000 0.319
$272 5.445 0.000 5.445
$348 25.862 21.153 4.709
$424 66.549 65.705 0.844
$500 123.554 110.258 13.296
$576 190.422 154.810 35.612
$652 262.332 199.362 62.970
$728 336.575 243.915 92.661
$804 411.838 288.467 123.372
$880 487.532 333.019 154.513
$956 563.406 377.571 185.834
$1032 639.353 422.124 217.229

Noviembre 2026

T = 147 dias | r = 3.691% | sigma = 45%

S (USD) Call BS Lineal Convexidad
$120 0.005 0.000 0.005
$196 0.772 0.000 0.772
$272 8.254 0.000 8.254
$348 31.606 27.449 4.158
$424 73.370 72.627 0.743
$500 129.634 117.805 11.830
$576 195.103 162.983 32.121
$652 265.739 208.160 57.579
$728 339.078 253.338 85.739
$804 413.774 298.516 115.257
$880 489.138 343.694 145.443
$956 564.826 388.872 175.954
$1032 640.674 434.050 206.623

Diciembre 2026

T = 168 dias | r = 3.691% | sigma = 47%

S (USD) Call BS Lineal Convexidad
$120 0.024 0.000 0.024
$196 1.514 0.000 1.514
$272 11.512 0.000 11.512
$348 37.485 33.773 3.711
$424 80.232 79.570 0.663
$500 135.987 125.366 10.621
$576 200.301 171.162 29.139
$652 269.756 216.958 52.798
$728 342.147 262.754 79.393
$804 416.169 308.550 107.618
$880 491.084 354.347 136.737
$956 566.486 400.143 166.344
$1032 642.155 445.939 196.216

Enero 2027

T = 189 dias | r = 3.691% | sigma = 49%

S (USD) Call BS Lineal Convexidad
$120 0.075 0.000 0.075
$196 2.580 0.000 2.580
$272 15.151 0.000 15.151
$348 43.480 40.139 3.341
$424 87.146 86.550 0.596
$500 142.568 132.960 9.607
$576 205.939 179.371 26.568
$652 274.335 225.782 48.553
$728 345.792 272.193 73.599
$804 419.082 318.604 100.478
$880 493.460 365.014 128.445
$956 568.483 411.425 157.058
$1032 643.891 457.836 186.056

Febrero 2027

T = 210 dias | r = 3.691% | sigma = 51%

S (USD) Call BS Lineal Convexidad
$120 0.185 0.000 0.185
$196 3.984 0.000 3.984
$272 19.114 0.000 19.114
$348 49.581 46.551 3.030
$424 94.116 93.575 0.541
$500 149.344 140.600 8.744
$576 211.956 187.624 24.332
$652 279.420 234.648 44.772
$728 349.994 281.673 68.322
$804 422.537 328.697 93.840
$880 496.324 375.721 120.603
$956 570.898 422.746 148.152
$1032 645.971 469.770 176.201

Marzo 2027

T = 231 dias | r = 3.691% | sigma = 53%

S (USD) Call BS Lineal Convexidad
$120 0.383 0.000 0.383
$196 5.719 0.000 5.719
$272 23.353 5.373 17.980
$348 55.775 53.012 2.763
$424 101.143 100.650 0.493
$500 156.288 148.289 7.999
$576 218.298 195.927 22.371
$652 284.960 243.566 41.394
$728 354.721 291.204 63.517
$804 426.534 338.843 87.692
$880 499.707 386.481 113.226
$956 573.784 434.119 139.665
$1032 648.466 481.758 166.708

Abril 2027

T = 252 dias | r = 3.691% | sigma = 55%

S (USD) Call BS Lineal Convexidad
$120 0.699 0.000 0.699
$196 7.773 0.000 7.773
$272 27.828 11.267 16.562
$348 62.053 59.521 2.532
$424 108.227 107.775 0.452
$500 163.379 156.029 7.349
$576 224.922 204.284 20.638
$652 290.902 252.538 38.364
$728 359.932 300.792 59.140
$804 431.054 349.047 82.008
$880 503.616 397.301 106.315
$956 577.174 445.555 131.619
$1032 651.425 493.809 157.615

Griegas

Mayo 2026

T = 21 dias | sigma = 33%

S (USD) Delta Gamma Theta Vega Rho
$120 0.0000 0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
$212 0.0000 0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
$304 0.0025 0.000273 -0.0056 0.0069 0.0006
$396 0.4898 0.010572 -0.3846 0.4559 0.1502
$488 0.9849 0.000820 -0.0995 0.0537 0.3260
$580 1.0000 0.000003 -0.0586 0.0002 0.3323
$672 1.0000 0.000000 -0.0584 0.0000 0.3323
$764 1.0000 0.000000 -0.0584 0.0000 0.3323
$856 1.0000 0.000000 -0.0584 0.0000 0.3323
$948 1.0000 0.000000 -0.0584 0.0000 0.3323
$1040 1.0000 0.000000 -0.0584 0.0000 0.3323

Octubre 2026

T = 126 dias | sigma = 43%

S (USD) Delta Gamma Theta Vega Rho
$120 0.0001 0.000010 -0.0001 0.0003 0.0001
$212 0.0304 0.001067 -0.0184 0.1031 0.0288
$304 0.2451 0.003402 -0.1246 0.6760 0.3144
$396 0.5713 0.003260 -0.2135 1.0992 0.8845
$488 0.8070 0.001847 -0.2024 0.9456 1.4003
$580 0.9243 0.000808 -0.1498 0.5846 1.7100
$672 0.9725 0.000310 -0.1058 0.3007 1.8590
$764 0.9904 0.000111 -0.0801 0.1392 1.9225
$856 0.9967 0.000038 -0.0674 0.0606 1.9478
$948 0.9989 0.000013 -0.0617 0.0255 1.9575
$1040 0.9996 0.000005 -0.0592 0.0105 1.9612

Abril 2027

T = 252 dias | sigma = 55%

S (USD) Delta Gamma Theta Vega Rho
$120 0.0324 0.001098 -0.0100 0.0870 0.0319
$212 0.2083 0.002460 -0.0713 0.6081 0.3337
$304 0.4377 0.002357 -0.1443 1.1980 0.9245
$396 0.6270 0.001738 -0.1868 1.4991 1.5826
$488 0.7592 0.001160 -0.1975 1.5199 2.1629
$580 0.8456 0.000745 -0.1888 1.3786 2.6214
$672 0.9007 0.000473 -0.1715 1.1736 2.9643
$764 0.9356 0.000300 -0.1521 0.9620 3.2137
$856 0.9578 0.000191 -0.1338 0.7708 3.3928
$948 0.9720 0.000123 -0.1180 0.6091 3.5206
$1040 0.9812 0.000080 -0.1050 0.4775 3.6119