Australia Net Zero 2050 — Nuclear’s Role in Capacity Expansion (FIXED)
Proper capacity accounting · Solar · Wind · Gas · Nuclear
Energy Systems Optimisation
2026-04-17
Research Question
How can nuclear energy help Australia reach net-zero emissions by 2050?
This model optimises capacity expansion decisions across solar, wind, gas, and nuclear to meet growing electricity demand at lowest total cost while achieving net-zero by 2050.
Key Fix: Capacity now properly compounds over time. Once built, assets remain in the system and depreciate with age—they don’t disappear if you don’t build new ones.
1. Model Setup & Parameters
## Parameters loaded.## Demand 2025: 200 TWh | Demand 2050: 340 TWh2. Optimisation Model (CORRECTED)
## Solving with GLPK...## Status: error## ⚠️ WARNING: Solver did not find optimal solution.
## Status: error3. Results & Analysis
Key Performance Indicators
| KPI | Value |
|---|---|
| Peak solar capacity (all time) | 92.4 GW |
| Peak wind capacity (all time) | 40.9 GW |
| Peak nuclear capacity (all time) | 2.5 GW |
| Peak gas capacity (all time) | 15.6 GW |
| Nuclear capacity at 2050 | 2.5 GW |
| Nuclear generation at 2050 | 20 TWh |
| Solar + Wind generation at 2050 | 300 TWh |
| Total demand at 2050 | 340 TWh |
| Emissions at 2050 | 9.21 Mt CO₂ |
| Total system cost | $5.7 billion |
4. Visualisations
Generation Mix (Now capacity stays built)
Installed Capacity (Now monotonic with depreciation)
Annual Build Rates
CO₂ Emissions Trajectory
Technology Comparison at Net-Zero Year
| Technology | Generation (TWh) | Share (%) | Capacity (GW) |
|---|---|---|---|
| solar | 219.1 | 64.4 | 89.3 |
| wind | 80.4 | 23.6 | 21.8 |
| gas | 20.5 | 6.0 | 5.8 |
| nuclear | 20.0 | 5.9 | 2.5 |
## Solver status: success
6. Model Documentation
Key Equations:
Capacity evolution: \[k_{i,t} = (1-\delta_i) k_{i,t-1} + b_{i,t}\]
where \(\delta_i = 1/\text{life}_i\) is the annual depreciation rate.
Generation capacity constraint: \[x_{i,t} \leq CF_i \cdot k_{i,t}\]
Demand balance: \[\sum_i x_{i,t} + \text{slack}_t \geq D_t\]
Build limits: \[b_{i,t} \leq B^{\max}_i\]