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The epidemic curve shows a sustained increase in weekly reported cases throughout late 2025, followed by a plateau at high transmission levels in early 2026. Despite this stabilization, case counts remain elevated, indicating ongoing transmission.
The case fatality rate (CFR) has markedly declined over time and is currently low, suggesting improvements in case detection and/or clinical management. However, CFR fluctuations earlier in the outbreak may reflect reporting delays or limited access to care.
The effective reproduction number (Rt) has fluctuated around the epidemic threshold (Rt = 1), with recent values close to 1. This suggests a fragile equilibrium: transmission is not clearly declining and may rebound if control measures are relaxed.
Overall, the epidemiological situation remains concerning but relatively stable, requiring sustained surveillance, continued case management efforts, and targeted interventions in high-burden areas.
The geographic distribution of cases highlights a strong concentration of transmission in urban LGAs, particularly Ungogo, Nasarawa, and Dala, which consistently report the highest weekly incidence. This clustering suggests sustained community transmission in densely populated areas.
The temporal heatmap confirms a marked intensification of transmission from late 2025, with a clear expansion across multiple LGAs. While the outbreak initially appears localized, it progressively spreads to adjacent areas, indicating spatial propagation.
Despite this spread, transmission remains heterogeneous. Several LGAs report low or sporadic case numbers, suggesting either limited transmission or potential under-detection.
Recent weeks show persistent activity in core high-burden LGAs, with no clear evidence of spatial contraction. This indicates that transmission remains entrenched in key urban hotspots.
| LGA | Cases W10 | Deaths W10 | Cases W09–W10 | Deaths W09–W10 | AR/100k W09–W10 | CFR% W09–W10 | Total Cases | Total Deaths | CFR (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ungogo | 53 | 1 | 109 | 1 | 16.1 | 0.9 | 1863 | 84 | 4.5 |
| Nasarawa | 54 | 1 | 98 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1342 | 67 | 5 |
| Dala | 36 | 0 | 71 | 0 | 9.3 | 0 | 940 | 27 | 2.9 |
| Gwale | 27 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 7.5 | 0 | 861 | 32 | 3.7 |
| Fagge | 25 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 13.7 | 0 | 525 | 15 | 2.9 |
| Kumbotso | 8 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 5.3 | 0 | 713 | 42 | 5.9 |
| Kano Municipal | 8 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 3.1 | 0 | 400 | 17 | 4.2 |
| Tarauni | 5 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3.5 | 0 | 329 | 25 | 7.6 |
| Warawa | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 6.7 |
| Gezawa | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.6 | 0 | 106 | 7 | 6.6 |
| Bichi | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.4 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 53.8 |
| Dawakin Tofa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 87 | 10 | 11.5 |
| Tofa | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 11.1 |
| Out Of Area | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 21 | 38.2 |
| Kabo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Minjibir | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 31 | 9 | 29 |
| Dawakin Kudu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 7 | 12.5 |
| Katagum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wudil | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 21.1 |
| Garun Mallam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 9.1 |
| Tudun Wada | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 11.1 |
| Kura | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 5 | 14.7 |
| Garko | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 16.7 |
| Albasu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kiru | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| Tsanyawa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Sumaila | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 50 |
| Unknown | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 40 | 28.4 |
| Madobi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 12.5 |
| Gaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 50 |
| Bebeji | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Dambatta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 18.2 |
| Bunkure | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 45.5 |
| Gabasawa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5 | 25 |
| Rimin Gado | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Bagwai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 50 |
| Rano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 33.3 |
| Takai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kibiya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 50 |
| Makoda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ajingi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rogo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shanono | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Doguwa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 33.3 |
| Gwarzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Karaye | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kunchi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 222 | 2 | 458 | 2 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 7712 | 449 | 5.8 |
Cumulative data indicate a substantial burden of disease, with over 7,700 reported cases and 449 deaths, corresponding to an overall CFR of 5.8%. Transmission remains highly concentrated in a limited number of urban LGAs.
Ungogo, Nasarawa, and Dala account for the highest number of recent and cumulative cases, with elevated attack rates in the past two weeks, confirming these areas as primary transmission hotspots. These LGAs should remain the focus of intensified response activities.
Recent weekly trends show a stabilization of case numbers at high levels. The current week (2026-W10) reports 222 cases with a low CFR (0.9%), indicating improved case management and/or earlier detection of cases.
Rt values fluctuate around 1, suggesting that transmission is ongoing but not clearly declining. This reflects a fragile epidemiological situation where small changes in intervention coverage or behavior could lead to renewed increases.
Marked heterogeneity is observed across LGAs. While several areas report no recent cases, this may reflect either true absence of transmission or potential under-detection, particularly in peripheral or low-access settings.
Overall, the outbreak remains active and geographically concentrated, with sustained transmission in urban centers and a continued risk of resurgence.