Study Purpose

This diagnostic compares two independent sources of port-area truck volumes:

  • Our commodity-driven truck forecast (from the PTB Commodity & Truck Forecast report): converts FAF commodity tonnage to daily truck trips at three PTB-owned port areas where tube counts were collected in February 2024 — Hooker’s Point, East Port (Pendola Point gate), and Port Redwing.
  • TBRPM v10 (the FDOT District 7 adopted regional travel demand model): assigns port truck trips via special-generator (SPECGEN) inputs at eight port-area TAZs, loaded onto the network through centroid connectors.

The two sources use different geographic definitions, different base data, and different growth assumptions. This diagnostic maps the overlap, identifies where they agree, and documents where TBRPM’s 2050 truck inputs diverge from 2040 trend.

Geographic Scope

Scope Crosswalk

PTB Forecast Area Tube-Count Gate TBRPM SPECGEN Zone Match
Hooker’s Point Hooker’s Point 749 — Hookers Point Direct
East Port (AR972) Pendola Point — No equivalent
Port Redwing Port Redwing 935 — Big Bend Port Redwing Direct
— — 620 — Port of Tampa TBRPM only
— — 621 — Port of Tampa TBRPM only
— — 711 — Port Ybor TBRPM only
— — 730 — Port Ybor TBRPM only
— — 833 — East Bay / Rockport TBRPM only

Our forecast covers 3 PTB-owned areas with observed tube-count calibration. TBRPM covers 8 SPECGEN zones that include both PTB-owned facilities and adjacent private port/industrial operations (Port of Tampa, Port Ybor, East Bay/Rockport). For benchmark comparison, we show both a “strict PTB” TBRPM subset (zones 749 + 935, matching our two directly-comparable areas) and the full 8-zone TBRPM scope.

Port Zone Attributes

Zone Facility Year POP TOT_EMP IND_EMP COMM_REMP SERV_REMP LTRK (SPEI_8) HTRK (SPEI_9)
620 Port of Tampa 2,020 1,268 341 232 20 89 40.0 120.0
620 Port of Tampa 2,050 1,405 899 519 122 258 40.0 120.0
621 Port of Tampa 2,020 3,839 1,100 612 55 433 40.0 120.0
621 Port of Tampa 2,050 4,380 1,993 628 595 771 40.0 120.0
711 Port Ybor 2,020 0 460 375 42 43 25.0 75.0
711 Port Ybor 2,050 0 639 191 30 418 25.0 75.0
730 Port Ybor 2,020 0 685 544 8 133 58.0 174.5
730 Port Ybor 2,050 0 801 514 53 235 58.0 174.5
749 Hookers Point 2,020 194 2,174 1,890 34 250 623.0 1,869.0
749 Hookers Point 2,050 232 6,092 2,341 400 3,351 623.0 1,869.0
833 East Bay / Rockport 2,020 100 1,018 815 35 168 48.5 146.0
833 East Bay / Rockport 2,050 152 1,525 752 452 321 48.5 146.0
862 Port Sutton 2,020 18 1,306 1,245 11 50 169.0 506.0
862 Port Sutton 2,050 18 4,717 4,494 95 129 169.0 506.0
935 Big Bend Port Redwing 2,020 84 1,274 1,145 36 93 91.5 275.0
935 Big Bend Port Redwing 2,050 458 5,866 4,520 845 501 91.5 275.0

Population and Employment Growth

Centroid Connector Volumes

Truck Volumes by Zone — 2020 / 2040 / 2050

Year Zone Facility Daily Trucks
2,020 620 Port of Tampa 160
2,050 620 Port of Tampa 160
2,020 621 Port of Tampa 160
2,050 621 Port of Tampa 160
2,020 711 Port Ybor 100
2,040 711 Port Ybor 480
2,050 711 Port Ybor 100
2,020 730 Port Ybor 235
2,040 730 Port Ybor 150
2,050 730 Port Ybor 230
2,020 749 Hookers Point 2,195
2,040 749 Hookers Point 6,020
2,050 749 Hookers Point 1,790
2,020 833 East Bay / Rockport 190
2,050 833 East Bay / Rockport 190
2,020 862 Port Sutton 640
2,050 862 Port Sutton 650
2,020 935 Big Bend Port Redwing 350
2,050 935 Big Bend Port Redwing 350

All-Vehicle Volumes by Zone — 2020 / 2040 / 2050

Year Zone Facility Daily All Vehicles
2,020 620 Port of Tampa 2,255
2,050 620 Port of Tampa 3,610
2,020 621 Port of Tampa 5,595
2,050 621 Port of Tampa 9,200
2,020 711 Port Ybor 800
2,040 711 Port Ybor 2,835
2,050 711 Port Ybor 1,130
2,020 730 Port Ybor 980
2,040 730 Port Ybor 415
2,050 730 Port Ybor 1,430
2,020 749 Hookers Point 4,640
2,040 749 Hookers Point 20,940
2,050 749 Hookers Point 10,250
2,020 833 East Bay / Rockport 1,495
2,050 833 East Bay / Rockport 4,570
2,020 862 Port Sutton 1,835
2,050 862 Port Sutton 4,905
2,020 935 Big Bend Port Redwing 1,965
2,050 935 Big Bend Port Redwing 12,235

Port-Wide Totals — Truck and All Vehicles

Year Daily Trucks Daily All Vehicles Truck %
2,020 4,030 19,565 20.6%
2,040 6,650 24,190 27.5%
2,050 3,630 47,330 7.7%

Benchmark: PTB Forecast vs TBRPM

Truck Volume Comparison

All-Vehicle Volume Comparison

Benchmark Table

Year TBRPM — PTB strict (749 + 935) TBRPM — All 8 SPECGEN zones PTB Forecast (Mid ±10%)
2,020 2,545 4,030 NA
2,025 3,414 4,685 4,532
2,030 4,282 5,340 4,813
2,040 6,020 6,650 5,504
2,045 4,080 5,140 5,896
2,050 2,140 3,630 6,324

Site-Level: Hooker’s Point and Port Redwing

CAGR: Where the 2050 Anomaly Shows Up

Over the 2020→2040 window, TBRPM truck volumes grow. Over the 2020→2050 window, they flatten or decline — driven by 2050 SPECGEN inputs reverting from their 2040 trajectory.

CAGR Table

Source 2020→2040 2020→2050 2025→2050
PTB Forecast (Mid, port-wide) — — +1.34%
TBRPM — PTB strict (749 + 935) +4.40% -0.58% —
TBRPM — All 8 SPECGEN zones +2.54% -0.35% —
PTB Forecast — Hooker’s Point — — +1.34%
TBRPM — Hookers Point (749) +5.17% -0.68% —
PTB Forecast — Port Redwing — — +1.34%
TBRPM — Big Bend Port Redwing (935) — +0.00% —

Truck CAGR Chart

All-Vehicle CAGR

All-vehicle centroid-connector volumes (SOV + HOV + truck) grow monotonically at every port zone — confirming that the 2050 truck anomaly is specific to truck SPECGEN inputs, not a general model artifact.

Source 2020→2040 2020→2050
TBRPM All-Vehicle — PTB strict (749 + 935) +5.94% +4.17%
TBRPM All-Vehicle — All 8 SPECGEN zones +1.07% +2.99%
TBRPM Truck — PTB strict (749 + 935) +4.40% -0.58%
TBRPM Truck — All 8 SPECGEN zones +2.54% -0.35%

For every TBRPM source, the 2020→2040 CAGR is higher than the 2020→2050 CAGR — extending the window 10 more years lowers the growth rate. This is only possible if 2050 values fall below the 2040 trajectory. Our forecast CAGRs are consistent across windows.

Observations

Truck volumes are essentially flat 2020→2050 at all port zones except Hookers Point (749), which declines from 2,195 to 1,790 (−18.5%). This single zone drives the port-wide decline from 4,030 to 3,630 (−9.9%).

All-vehicle volumes grow substantially at every port zone, reflecting employment-driven growth. The divergence between flat truck inputs and growing total traffic shows how SPECGEN truck inputs were handled for the 2050 horizon.

The 2040 anchor is the key. The 2020→2040 TBRPM truck growth rates are positive and directionally aligned with our forecast. The 2020→2050 rates flatten or turn negative because the 2050 SPECGEN inputs revert from their 2040 trajectory — a pattern unique to port zones.

Full Data Export

Port Zone Attributes — Both Years

Port Centroid Connectors — Both Years