Overview

This report summarizes expected newborn counts, preterm births, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) cases, and RDS mortality impact from universal bCPAP access across 11 countries from 2026 through 2040. The calculations use the ZeroYrOlds newborn forecast sheet and apply fixed gestational-age shares, gestational-age-specific RDS probabilities, and two alternative RDS case fatality assumptions: no bCPAP support versus universal bCPAP treatment.

Across all countries and years combined, the model estimates 759,780,413 newborns, 15,702,610 RDS cases, and 1,727,287 RDS deaths averted under universal bCPAP access.

Key Model Parameters

Key parameters used in the Global11 RDS impact calculation.
Parameter Value
Forecast years 2026-2040 (15 years)
Countries included 11
Term birth share 0.850
Late preterm birth share 0.1281
Very preterm birth share 0.0156
Extremely preterm birth share 0.0063
RDS probability among term births 0.00333
RDS probability among late preterm births 0.050
RDS probability among very preterm births 0.333
RDS probability among extremely preterm births 0.99
RDS case fatality rate without bCPAP 0.235
RDS case fatality rate with bCPAP 0.125

Calculation Method

  1. Import projected newborn counts for each country-year from the ZeroYrOlds worksheet.
  2. Split each country-year newborn total into term, late preterm, very preterm, and extremely preterm births using fixed birth shares.
  3. Multiply births in each gestational-age category by the corresponding RDS probability to estimate expected RDS cases.
  4. Estimate expected RDS deaths under two scenarios: no bCPAP and universal bCPAP access.
  5. Calculate deaths averted as expected RDS deaths without bCPAP minus expected RDS deaths with bCPAP.

These are expected values rather than simulated individual counts, so some outputs are fractional before rounding for display.

All-Country Summary

All-country summary across the full 2026-2040 forecast window.
Summary Value
Countries included 11
Years modeled 2026-2040
Total newborns across full period 759,780,413
Average annual newborns 50,652,028
Average annual preterm births 7,597,804
Average annual RDS cases 1,046,841
Average annual RDS deaths without bCPAP 246,008
Average annual RDS deaths with bCPAP 130,855
Average annual RDS deaths averted 115,152

Comparison to Alternative Calculation Method using high-income bCPAP utilization

This alternative calculation applies a high-income-setting style utilization rule to the full newborn population rather than estimating RDS first. Specifically, it assumes that 2.0% of all newborns receive bCPAP, and then applies the same RDS case fatality assumptions used elsewhere in the report: 23.5% without bCPAP and 12.5% with bCPAP.

Under this simplified approach, the expected average annual number of newborns using bCPAP is lower-level utilization-driven rather than disease-driven. The resulting average annual lives saved can be compared directly with the RDS-based model estimate above.

Comparison of the simplified high-income-utilization calculation with the primary RDS-based model.
Metric Value
Assumed bCPAP utilization among all newborns 2.0%
Average annual newborns 50,652,028
Average annual bCPAP users 1,013,041
Average annual lives saved 111,434
Average annual deaths averted in RDS-based model 115,152
Alternative method as share of RDS-based estimate 96.8%

Country Summary

The table below shows average annual values over the 15-year forecast period for each country.

Average annual newborns, preterm births, RDS cases, and RDS deaths averted by country.
Country Average Annual Newborns Average Annual Preterm Births Average Annual RDS Cases Average Annual Deaths Averted
Bangladesh 3,101,761 465,264 64,105 7,052
Ethiopia 4,273,918 641,088 88,330 9,716
Ghana 924,110 138,616 19,099 2,101
India 21,743,244 3,261,487 449,374 49,431
Kenya 1,593,708 239,056 32,938 3,623
Malawi 722,348 108,352 14,929 1,642
Nigeria 7,636,849 1,145,527 157,833 17,362
Pakistan 7,004,762 1,050,714 144,770 15,925
Rwanda 423,065 63,460 8,744 962
Senegal 579,111 86,867 11,969 1,317
United Republic of Tanzania 2,649,153 397,373 54,751 6,023

Country-Year Results

Detailed country-year results table.
Country Year Newborns Late Preterm Births Very Preterm Births Extremely Preterm Births RDS Cases RDS Deaths Without bCPAP RDS Deaths With bCPAP RDS Deaths Averted
Bangladesh 2026 3,373,753 432,178 52,631 21,255 69,726 16,386 8,716 7,670
Bangladesh 2027 3,342,586 428,185 52,144 21,058 69,082 16,234 8,635 7,599
Bangladesh 2028 3,308,962 423,878 51,620 20,846 68,387 16,071 8,548 7,523
Bangladesh 2029 3,272,893 419,258 51,057 20,619 67,642 15,896 8,455 7,441
Bangladesh 2030 3,234,031 414,279 50,451 20,374 66,839 15,707 8,355 7,352
Bangladesh 2031 3,191,943 408,888 49,794 20,109 65,969 15,503 8,246 7,257
Bangladesh 2032 3,149,037 403,392 49,125 19,839 65,082 15,294 8,135 7,159
Bangladesh 2033 3,104,362 397,669 48,428 19,557 64,159 15,077 8,020 7,057
Bangladesh 2034 3,058,086 391,741 47,706 19,266 63,202 14,853 7,900 6,952
Bangladesh 2035 3,013,006 385,966 47,003 18,982 62,271 14,634 7,784 6,850
Bangladesh 2036 2,968,906 380,317 46,315 18,704 61,359 14,419 7,670 6,750
Bangladesh 2037 2,927,206 374,975 45,664 18,441 60,497 14,217 7,562 6,655
Bangladesh 2038 2,891,200 370,363 45,103 18,215 59,753 14,042 7,469 6,573
Bangladesh 2039 2,859,109 366,252 44,602 18,012 59,090 13,886 7,386 6,500
Bangladesh 2040 2,831,329 362,693 44,169 17,837 58,516 13,751 7,314 6,437
Ethiopia 2026 4,085,279 523,324 63,730 25,737 84,432 19,841 10,554 9,287
Ethiopia 2027 4,122,756 528,125 64,315 25,973 85,206 20,023 10,651 9,373
Ethiopia 2028 4,156,492 532,447 64,841 26,186 85,903 20,187 10,738 9,449
Ethiopia 2029 4,187,557 536,426 65,326 26,382 86,545 20,338 10,818 9,520
Ethiopia 2030 4,215,862 540,052 65,767 26,560 87,130 20,476 10,891 9,584
Ethiopia 2031 4,239,508 543,081 66,136 26,709 87,619 20,591 10,952 9,638
Ethiopia 2032 4,260,288 545,743 66,460 26,840 88,049 20,691 11,006 9,685
Ethiopia 2033 4,279,589 548,215 66,762 26,961 88,448 20,785 11,056 9,729
Ethiopia 2034 4,297,737 550,540 67,045 27,076 88,823 20,873 11,103 9,770
Ethiopia 2035 4,316,952 553,002 67,344 27,197 89,220 20,967 11,152 9,814
Ethiopia 2036 4,337,207 555,596 67,660 27,324 89,638 21,065 11,205 9,860
Ethiopia 2037 4,359,974 558,513 68,016 27,468 90,109 21,176 11,264 9,912
Ethiopia 2038 4,387,320 562,016 68,442 27,640 90,674 21,308 11,334 9,974
Ethiopia 2039 4,415,740 565,656 68,886 27,819 91,261 21,446 11,408 10,039
Ethiopia 2040 4,446,513 569,598 69,366 28,013 91,897 21,596 11,487 10,109
Ghana 2026 877,438 112,400 13,688 5,528 18,134 4,262 2,267 1,995
Ghana 2027 883,346 113,157 13,780 5,565 18,256 4,290 2,282 2,008
Ghana 2028 889,911 113,998 13,883 5,606 18,392 4,322 2,299 2,023
Ghana 2029 896,750 114,874 13,989 5,650 18,533 4,355 2,317 2,039
Ghana 2030 903,444 115,731 14,094 5,692 18,672 4,388 2,334 2,054
Ghana 2031 910,406 116,623 14,202 5,736 18,816 4,422 2,352 2,070
Ghana 2032 917,478 117,529 14,313 5,780 18,962 4,456 2,370 2,086
Ghana 2033 925,365 118,539 14,436 5,830 19,125 4,494 2,391 2,104
Ghana 2034 933,202 119,543 14,558 5,879 19,287 4,532 2,411 2,122
Ghana 2035 940,168 120,436 14,667 5,923 19,431 4,566 2,429 2,137
Ghana 2036 946,648 121,266 14,768 5,964 19,565 4,598 2,446 2,152
Ghana 2037 952,144 121,970 14,853 5,999 19,678 4,624 2,460 2,165
Ghana 2038 957,138 122,609 14,931 6,030 19,781 4,649 2,473 2,176
Ghana 2039 962,058 123,240 15,008 6,061 19,883 4,673 2,485 2,187
Ghana 2040 966,152 123,764 15,072 6,087 19,968 4,692 2,496 2,196
India 2026 22,585,870 2,893,250 352,340 142,291 466,789 109,695 58,349 51,347
India 2027 22,507,716 2,883,238 351,120 141,799 465,174 109,316 58,147 51,169
India 2028 22,409,196 2,870,618 349,583 141,178 463,138 108,837 57,892 50,945
India 2029 22,311,238 2,858,070 348,055 140,561 461,113 108,362 57,639 50,722
India 2030 22,224,949 2,847,016 346,709 140,017 459,330 107,942 57,416 50,526
India 2031 22,120,584 2,833,647 345,081 139,360 457,173 107,436 57,147 50,289
India 2032 21,979,896 2,815,625 342,886 138,473 454,265 106,752 56,783 49,969
India 2033 21,831,411 2,796,604 340,570 137,538 451,196 106,031 56,400 49,632
India 2034 21,689,414 2,778,414 338,355 136,643 448,262 105,341 56,033 49,309
India 2035 21,541,318 2,759,443 336,045 135,710 445,201 104,622 55,650 48,972
India 2036 21,376,641 2,738,348 333,476 134,673 441,797 103,822 55,225 48,598
India 2037 21,190,994 2,714,566 330,580 133,503 437,961 102,921 54,745 48,176
India 2038 20,988,297 2,688,601 327,417 132,226 433,771 101,936 54,221 47,715
India 2039 20,785,512 2,662,624 324,254 130,949 429,580 100,951 53,698 47,254
India 2040 20,605,618 2,639,580 321,448 129,815 425,862 100,078 53,233 46,845
Kenya 2026 1,510,930 193,550 23,571 9,519 31,227 7,338 3,903 3,435
Kenya 2027 1,528,775 195,836 23,849 9,631 31,596 7,425 3,949 3,476
Kenya 2028 1,546,646 198,125 24,128 9,744 31,965 7,512 3,996 3,516
Kenya 2029 1,563,426 200,275 24,389 9,850 32,312 7,593 4,039 3,554
Kenya 2030 1,578,878 202,254 24,631 9,947 32,631 7,668 4,079 3,589
Kenya 2031 1,593,740 204,158 24,862 10,041 32,938 7,741 4,117 3,623
Kenya 2032 1,606,231 205,758 25,057 10,119 33,196 7,801 4,150 3,652
Kenya 2033 1,614,684 206,841 25,189 10,173 33,371 7,842 4,171 3,671
Kenya 2034 1,620,532 207,590 25,280 10,209 33,492 7,871 4,187 3,684
Kenya 2035 1,624,484 208,096 25,342 10,234 33,574 7,890 4,197 3,693
Kenya 2036 1,626,990 208,417 25,381 10,250 33,626 7,902 4,203 3,699
Kenya 2037 1,626,882 208,404 25,379 10,249 33,623 7,901 4,203 3,699
Kenya 2038 1,624,626 208,115 25,344 10,235 33,577 7,891 4,197 3,693
Kenya 2039 1,621,370 207,697 25,293 10,215 33,509 7,875 4,189 3,686
Kenya 2040 1,617,420 207,191 25,232 10,190 33,428 7,856 4,178 3,677
Malawi 2026 672,182 86,106 10,486 4,235 13,892 3,265 1,737 1,528
Malawi 2027 681,052 87,243 10,624 4,291 14,076 3,308 1,759 1,548
Malawi 2028 690,756 88,486 10,776 4,352 14,276 3,355 1,785 1,570
Malawi 2029 700,652 89,754 10,930 4,414 14,481 3,403 1,810 1,593
Malawi 2030 708,768 90,793 11,057 4,465 14,648 3,442 1,831 1,611
Malawi 2031 714,705 91,554 11,149 4,503 14,771 3,471 1,846 1,625
Malawi 2032 720,923 92,350 11,246 4,542 14,900 3,501 1,862 1,639
Malawi 2033 726,926 93,119 11,340 4,580 15,024 3,531 1,878 1,653
Malawi 2034 732,642 93,851 11,429 4,616 15,142 3,558 1,893 1,666
Malawi 2035 737,680 94,497 11,508 4,647 15,246 3,583 1,906 1,677
Malawi 2036 742,154 95,070 11,578 4,676 15,338 3,605 1,917 1,687
Malawi 2037 746,357 95,608 11,643 4,702 15,425 3,625 1,928 1,697
Malawi 2038 750,256 96,108 11,704 4,727 15,506 3,644 1,938 1,706
Malawi 2039 753,548 96,529 11,755 4,747 15,574 3,660 1,947 1,713
Malawi 2040 756,621 96,923 11,803 4,767 15,637 3,675 1,955 1,720
Nigeria 2026 7,285,174 933,231 113,649 45,897 150,565 35,383 18,821 16,562
Nigeria 2027 7,347,444 941,208 114,620 46,289 151,852 35,685 18,981 16,704
Nigeria 2028 7,404,626 948,533 115,512 46,649 153,034 35,963 19,129 16,834
Nigeria 2029 7,472,472 957,224 116,571 47,077 154,436 36,292 19,304 16,988
Nigeria 2030 7,532,118 964,864 117,501 47,452 155,669 36,582 19,459 17,124
Nigeria 2031 7,582,510 971,320 118,287 47,770 156,710 36,827 19,589 17,238
Nigeria 2032 7,639,913 978,673 119,183 48,131 157,896 37,106 19,737 17,369
Nigeria 2033 7,684,420 984,374 119,877 48,412 158,816 37,322 19,852 17,470
Nigeria 2034 7,720,074 988,942 120,433 48,636 159,553 37,495 19,944 17,551
Nigeria 2035 7,758,002 993,800 121,025 48,875 160,337 37,679 20,042 17,637
Nigeria 2036 7,790,668 997,985 121,534 49,081 161,012 37,838 20,127 17,711
Nigeria 2037 7,813,147 1,000,864 121,885 49,223 161,477 37,947 20,185 17,762
Nigeria 2038 7,828,476 1,002,828 122,124 49,319 161,793 38,021 20,224 17,797
Nigeria 2039 7,843,962 1,004,812 122,366 49,417 162,114 38,097 20,264 17,832
Nigeria 2040 7,849,723 1,005,550 122,456 49,453 162,233 38,125 20,279 17,846
Pakistan 2026 6,628,099 849,059 103,398 41,757 136,985 32,191 17,123 15,068
Pakistan 2027 6,663,327 853,572 103,948 41,979 137,713 32,363 17,214 15,148
Pakistan 2028 6,711,152 859,699 104,694 42,280 138,701 32,595 17,338 15,257
Pakistan 2029 6,772,460 867,552 105,650 42,666 139,968 32,893 17,496 15,397
Pakistan 2030 6,839,503 876,140 106,696 43,089 141,354 33,218 17,669 15,549
Pakistan 2031 6,905,130 884,547 107,720 43,502 142,710 33,537 17,839 15,698
Pakistan 2032 6,968,460 892,660 108,708 43,901 144,019 33,845 18,002 15,842
Pakistan 2033 7,032,689 900,887 109,710 44,306 145,347 34,156 18,168 15,988
Pakistan 2034 7,091,457 908,416 110,627 44,676 146,561 34,442 18,320 16,122
Pakistan 2035 7,144,813 915,251 111,459 45,012 147,664 34,701 18,458 16,243
Pakistan 2036 7,193,966 921,547 112,226 45,322 148,680 34,940 18,585 16,355
Pakistan 2037 7,236,928 927,050 112,896 45,593 149,568 35,148 18,696 16,452
Pakistan 2038 7,272,719 931,635 113,454 45,818 150,307 35,322 18,788 16,534
Pakistan 2039 7,296,166 934,639 113,820 45,966 150,792 35,436 18,849 16,587
Pakistan 2040 7,314,561 936,995 114,107 46,082 151,172 35,525 18,897 16,629
Rwanda 2026 397,778 50,955 6,205 2,506 8,221 1,932 1,028 904
Rwanda 2027 402,776 51,596 6,283 2,537 8,324 1,956 1,041 916
Rwanda 2028 407,144 52,155 6,351 2,565 8,415 1,977 1,052 926
Rwanda 2029 410,480 52,582 6,403 2,586 8,484 1,994 1,060 933
Rwanda 2030 413,428 52,960 6,449 2,605 8,544 2,008 1,068 940
Rwanda 2031 416,743 53,385 6,501 2,625 8,613 2,024 1,077 947
Rwanda 2032 419,836 53,781 6,549 2,645 8,677 2,039 1,085 954
Rwanda 2033 422,530 54,126 6,591 2,662 8,733 2,052 1,092 961
Rwanda 2034 425,851 54,552 6,643 2,683 8,801 2,068 1,100 968
Rwanda 2035 430,102 55,096 6,710 2,710 8,889 2,089 1,111 978
Rwanda 2036 434,092 55,607 6,772 2,735 8,972 2,108 1,121 987
Rwanda 2037 437,182 56,003 6,820 2,754 9,035 2,123 1,129 994
Rwanda 2038 439,904 56,352 6,862 2,771 9,092 2,137 1,136 1,000
Rwanda 2039 442,540 56,689 6,904 2,788 9,146 2,149 1,143 1,006
Rwanda 2040 445,590 57,080 6,951 2,807 9,209 2,164 1,151 1,013
Senegal 2026 540,094 69,186 8,425 3,403 11,162 2,623 1,395 1,228
Senegal 2027 547,422 70,125 8,540 3,449 11,314 2,659 1,414 1,245
Senegal 2028 555,286 71,132 8,662 3,498 11,476 2,697 1,435 1,262
Senegal 2029 562,689 72,080 8,778 3,545 11,629 2,733 1,454 1,279
Senegal 2030 569,246 72,920 8,880 3,586 11,765 2,765 1,471 1,294
Senegal 2031 574,490 73,592 8,962 3,619 11,873 2,790 1,484 1,306
Senegal 2032 579,182 74,193 9,035 3,649 11,970 2,813 1,496 1,317
Senegal 2033 583,660 74,767 9,105 3,677 12,063 2,835 1,508 1,327
Senegal 2034 587,685 75,282 9,168 3,702 12,146 2,854 1,518 1,336
Senegal 2035 591,352 75,752 9,225 3,726 12,222 2,872 1,528 1,344
Senegal 2036 593,976 76,088 9,266 3,742 12,276 2,885 1,534 1,350
Senegal 2037 597,202 76,502 9,316 3,762 12,343 2,901 1,543 1,358
Senegal 2038 599,494 76,795 9,352 3,777 12,390 2,912 1,549 1,363
Senegal 2039 601,157 77,008 9,378 3,787 12,424 2,920 1,553 1,367
Senegal 2040 603,730 77,338 9,418 3,804 12,477 2,932 1,560 1,373
United Republic of Tanzania 2026 2,381,505 305,071 37,151 15,003 49,219 11,567 6,152 5,414
United Republic of Tanzania 2027 2,419,210 309,901 37,740 15,241 49,999 11,750 6,250 5,500
United Republic of Tanzania 2028 2,454,290 314,395 38,287 15,462 50,724 11,920 6,340 5,580
United Republic of Tanzania 2029 2,491,542 319,166 38,868 15,697 51,493 12,101 6,437 5,664
United Republic of Tanzania 2030 2,530,334 324,136 39,473 15,941 52,295 12,289 6,537 5,752
United Republic of Tanzania 2031 2,570,778 329,317 40,104 16,196 53,131 12,486 6,641 5,844
United Republic of Tanzania 2032 2,607,360 334,003 40,675 16,426 53,887 12,663 6,736 5,928
United Republic of Tanzania 2033 2,642,214 338,468 41,219 16,646 54,607 12,833 6,826 6,007
United Republic of Tanzania 2034 2,685,444 344,005 41,893 16,918 55,501 13,043 6,938 6,105
United Republic of Tanzania 2035 2,729,784 349,685 42,585 17,198 56,417 13,258 7,052 6,206
United Republic of Tanzania 2036 2,769,422 354,763 43,203 17,447 57,236 13,451 7,155 6,296
United Republic of Tanzania 2037 2,803,774 359,163 43,739 17,664 57,946 13,617 7,243 6,374
United Republic of Tanzania 2038 2,842,258 364,093 44,339 17,906 58,742 13,804 7,343 6,462
United Republic of Tanzania 2039 2,885,152 369,588 45,008 18,176 59,628 14,013 7,454 6,559
United Republic of Tanzania 2040 2,924,222 374,593 45,618 18,423 60,436 14,202 7,554 6,648