Report of all Graphs

Distribution of Precursors Precedings Symptoms by Regime
Category of Precursor	Closed Autocracy	Electoral Autocracy	Electoral Democracy	Liberal Democracy
Co-optation of Citizens	6	81	8	0
Co-optation of the Opposition	14	148	22	3
Delegitimizing or Weakening Subnational Units	17	68	27	7
Delegitimizing or Weakening the Judiciary	57	329	313	33
Delegitimizing or Weakening the Legislature	3	328	186	30
Democratic Facade	280	242	56	7
Electoral Boycott	10	450	53	4
Electoral Fraud and Voter Suppression	24	1197	154	27
Ethno-Religious Tensions	104	417	187	91
External Shocks (Economic, Health, Natural Disasters)	20	14	179	61
Horizontal Corruption	143	836	558	178
Increased Surveillance	324	412	130	79
Increasing Control over Civil Society	395	1346	388	62
Lack of Legitimacy	46	210	115	40
Malapportionment	16	114	77	7
Manipulation of Civil Service or Integrity Institutions	40	273	203	41
Media Bias	92	605	255	207
No-Confidence Votes or Decreased Voter Turnout	49	352	121	46
Opposition Alliance Hedging	3	14	17	3
Overstayed Welcome	31	131	4	1
Polarization	9	37	94	26
Rhetorical Attacks against Democracy or Accountability Institutions	18	260	88	47
State-Conducted Violence or Abuse	1273	3910	1334	270
Vertical Corruption	88	441	441	240
Electoral Violence	0	388	189	4
Party Weakness	0	68	58	42
Border Disputes	0	0	4	24
External Influence or Invasion	0	0	164	56
Extremist/Populist Parties	0	0	107	111
Non-state Violence	0	0	1059	206
Refugee Crisis	0	0	95	65
Regional Unrest Spillover	0	0	14	2
Rejecting Election Results	0	0	98	13
Note:
This table shows the frequency of every precursor that precedes a symptom within a 12 month window and disaggregated by regime type.

Distribution of Symptoms Preceding Symptoms by Regime
Category of Precursor	Closed Autocracy	Electoral Autocracy	Electoral Democracy	Liberal Democracy
Creation of Parallel Structures	14	132	17	9
Curtailed Civil Liberties	4120	7978	1486	390
Discrimination against Minorities	524	1352	395	255
Forced/Coerced Exile	46	321	26	6
Foreign Military Action	7	66	0	0
Media Repression	2797	9478	2332	400
Militarization of Civilian Governance	19	35	27	0
Politicization of the Education System	220	759	118	27
Purging of Elites	325	320	53	14
Reducing Autonomy of Subnational Units	18	132	16	10
Reduction in Judicial Independence	223	483	356	59
Reduction in Legislative Oversight	70	336	114	32
Relaxation of Term Limits	104	179	91	0
Repression of the Opposition	1084	6023	695	37
Revision of the Constitution	151	379	149	18
State-controlled Media	351	314	28	9
Suspension of Laws or the Constitution	95	296	192	21
Systematic Violence against Minorities or Ethnic Cleansing	57	70	22	7
Systemic Electoral Violence	8	7	4	0
Systemic Reduction in Election Freedom and Fairness	220	1512	189	16
Weakened Civil Service or Integrity Institutions	59	548	287	77
Anti-Democratic Mobilization	0	21	4	0
Coup or Regime Collapse	0	0	56	0
External Shocks (Economic, Health, Natural Disasters)	0	0	6	0
Note:
This table shows the frequency of every symptom that precedes another symptom within a 12 month window and disaggregated by regime type.

Distribution of Symptoms Preceding Resistance by Regime
Category of Precursor	Closed Autocracy	Electoral Autocracy	Electoral Democracy	Liberal Democracy
Creation of Parallel Structures	1	50	21	3
Curtailed Civil Liberties	1202	2556	1117	631
Discrimination against Minorities	133	531	362	326
Forced/Coerced Exile	25	126	27	7
Foreign Military Action	3	22	0	0
Media Repression	1004	3736	2032	648
Militarization of Civilian Governance	13	9	18	0
Politicization of the Education System	67	309	128	48
Purging of Elites	73	112	71	10
Reducing Autonomy of Subnational Units	4	40	19	19
Reduction in Judicial Independence	56	209	361	58
Reduction in Legislative Oversight	19	145	135	45
Relaxation of Term Limits	13	80	63	0
Repression of the Opposition	311	1785	454	68
Revision of the Constitution	47	115	141	44
State-controlled Media	79	128	31	41
Suspension of Laws or the Constitution	45	174	148	31
Systematic Violence against Minorities or Ethnic Cleansing	5	34	9	4
Systemic Electoral Violence	6	0	9	0
Systemic Reduction in Election Freedom and Fairness	109	632	169	18
Weakened Civil Service or Integrity Institutions	34	226	176	63
Anti-Democratic Mobilization	0	0	3	0
Coup or Regime Collapse	0	0	56	2
External Shocks (Economic, Health, Natural Disasters)	0	0	8	0
Note:
This table shows the frequency of every symptom that precedes an act of resistance within a 12 month window and disaggregated by regime type.

Distribution of Resistance Preceding Resistance by Regime
Category of Precursor	Closed Autocracy	Electoral Autocracy	Electoral Democracy	Liberal Democracy
Check on Central Power by Civil Service	27	60	186	59
Check on Central Power by Subnational Units	14	23	40	54
Check on Executive by Judiciary	60	374	649	327
Check on Executive by Legislature	44	156	223	120
Coalitions or Elite Pacts	62	166	84	62
Exit of People or Capital Flight	7	53	12	0
Increase in Civic Capacity	116	233	245	96
Increase in Civil Liberties	412	527	671	759
Increase in Electoral Integrity	67	293	276	103
Increase in Media Protections/Media Liberalization	93	176	230	104
Increase in Organized Opposition	36	198	127	51
Nonviolent Protest	417	1852	1731	816
Pressure from Outside Actor	127	1076	767	332
State Attempts at Democratization or to Prevent Backsliding	298	1015	1592	1035
Transfer of Power from Authoritarian Leaders	57	80	30	10
Transition to a Democratic Constitution	78	32	39	14
Violent Protest	80	571	552	249
Note:
This table shows the frequency of acts of resistance that precedes an act of resistance within a 12 month window and disaggregated by regime type.

Most Common Precursors Preceeding Symptomps in Democracies (within 12 Months)
Category of Precursor	Democracy
State-Conducted Violence or Abuse	1604
Non-state Violence	1265
Horizontal Corruption	736
Vertical Corruption	681
Media Bias	462
Increasing Control over Civil Society	450
Delegitimizing or Weakening the Judiciary	346
Ethno-Religious Tensions	278
Increased Surveillance	209
Electoral Fraud and Voter Suppression	181

Most Common Precursors Preceding Symptoms in Autocracies (within 12 Months)
Category of Precursor	Autocracy (count)
State-Conducted Violence or Abuse	5183
Increasing Control over Civil Society	1741
Electoral Fraud and Voter Suppression	1221
Horizontal Corruption	979
Increased Surveillance	736
Media Bias	697
Vertical Corruption	529
Democratic Facade	522
Ethno-Religious Tensions	521
Electoral Boycott	460

Most Common Symptoms Preceeding Other Symptomps in Democracies (within 12 Months)
Category of First Symptom	Democracy
Curtailed Civil Liberties	1876
Discrimination against Minorities	650
Media Repression	2732
Politicization of the Education System	145
Purging of Elites	67
Reduction in Judicial Independence	415
Repression of the Opposition	732
State-controlled Media	37
Systemic Reduction in Election Freedom and Fairness	205
Weakened Civil Service or Integrity Institutions	364

Most Common Symptoms Preceding Symptoms in Autocracies (within 12 Months)
Category of Symptom	Autocracy (count)
Media Repression	12275
Curtailed Civil Liberties	12098
Repression of the Opposition	7107
Discrimination against Minorities	1876
Systemic Reduction in Election Freedom and Fairness	1732
Politicization of the Education System	979
Reduction in Judicial Independence	706
State-controlled Media	665
Purging of Elites	645
Weakened Civil Service or Integrity Institutions	607

Most Common Symptoms Preceeding Resistance in Democracies (within 12 Months)
Category of Symptom	Democracy
Media Repression	2680
Curtailed Civil Liberties	1748
Discrimination against Minorities	688
Repression of the Opposition	522
Reduction in Judicial Independence	419
Weakened Civil Service or Integrity Institutions	239
Systemic Reduction in Election Freedom and Fairness	187
Revision of the Constitution	185
Reduction in Legislative Oversight	180
Suspension of Laws or the Constitution	179

Most Common Symptoms Preceding Resistance in Autocracies (within 12 Months)
Category of Symptom	Autocracy (count)
Media Repression	4740
Curtailed Civil Liberties	3758
Repression of the Opposition	2096
Systemic Reduction in Election Freedom and Fairness	741
Discrimination against Minorities	664
Politicization of the Education System	376
Reduction in Judicial Independence	265
Weakened Civil Service or Integrity Institutions	260
Suspension of Laws or the Constitution	219
State-controlled Media	207

Most Common Resistance Preceeding Other Resistance in Democracies (within 12 Months)
Category of First Resistance	Democracy
Check on Executive by Judiciary	976
Check on Executive by Legislature	343
Increase in Civic Capacity	341
Increase in Civil Liberties	1430
Increase in Electoral Integrity	379
Increase in Media Protections/Media Liberalization	334
Nonviolent Protest	2547
Pressure from Outside Actor	1099
State Attempts at Democratization or to Prevent Backsliding	2627
Violent Protest	801

Most Common Resistance Preceding Resistance in Autocracies (within 12 Months)
Category of Resistance	Autocracy (count)
Nonviolent Protest	2269
State Attempts at Democratization or to Prevent Backsliding	1313
Pressure from Outside Actor	1203
Increase in Civil Liberties	939
Violent Protest	651
Check on Executive by Judiciary	434
Increase in Electoral Integrity	360
Increase in Civic Capacity	349
Increase in Media Protections/Media Liberalization	269
Increase in Organized Opposition	234

This graph is aimed at analyzing if there is a relationship between the rise in precursors occurring in a nation and the rise of symptoms occurring. This graph is counting up precursors and symptoms by year with no consideration for when in the year these events occur.

This graph is aimed at analyzing if there is a relationship between the rise in precursors occurring in a nation and the rise of symptoms occurring. This graph is using the date of precursors and symptoms in terms of month and year.

This graph above is highlighting what percent of the total of a specific symptom is occurring after a precursor. Symptoms that have a high share of occurrence within 12 months following a precursor, tells us that when a actor carries out that symptom, it may be indicating of something larger. This graph is not dis-aggregated by regime type.

This graph above is similar to the previous bar-graph, but it’s only lookin at data from democracies.

This graph above is similar to the previous bar-graph, but it’s only lookin at data from autocracies

Analysis Explanation:

Chosen Method of Analysis:

FEOLS is used because we are looking at observations that span many countries
Basically need to run a regression for every possible precursor and symptom pair

Creating Panel Data using the DEC Dataset: - Need to make panel base

Create an object that separates observations by country, and month-year
Not every country has an observation for each month and year, so need to create object that includes blank observations for month-years with no observations for those countries (makes a balanced panel)
Make indicator variable for precursor (1 if the observation is a precursor, 0 if not)
Make indicator variable for symptom (1 if the observation is a symptom, 0 if not)
Make a lagged variable of symptoms that occur within 12 months of precursor, excluding current month

Create function function to run precursor~symptom and input the panel data created

Cleaned the table for only statistically significant pairs: Top 10 pairs below Interpretation: occurrence of [precursor] leads to an increase/decrease by [estimate *100] percentage points in the chance of seeing [paired symptom] occur within 12 months of that precursor, controlling for country fixed effects.

head(results_df_clean,10)

## # A tibble: 10 × 6
##    precursor_category         symptom_category estimate std_error  p_value n_obs
##    <chr>                      <chr>               <dbl>     <dbl>    <dbl> <int>
##  1 Co-optation of Citizens    Curtailed Civil…   0.0599   0.0257  1.99e- 2 42561
##  2 Malapportionment           Media Repression   0.0592   0.0112  1.17e- 7 42561
##  3 Co-optation of Citizens    Systemic Reduct…   0.0585   0.00989 3.31e- 9 42561
##  4 Overstayed Welcome         Repression of t…   0.0511   0.00899 1.28e- 8 42561
##  5 Co-optation of Citizens    Repression of t…   0.0420   0.0189  2.64e- 2 42561
##  6 Delegitimizing or Weakeni… Media Repression   0.0408   0.0138  3.07e- 3 42561
##  7 Increased Surveillance     Curtailed Civil…   0.0382   0.00468 3.41e-16 42561
##  8 Overstayed Welcome         Curtailed Civil…   0.0348   0.0122  4.40e- 3 42561
##  9 Increasing Control over C… Curtailed Civil…   0.0347   0.00380 6.20e-20 42561
## 10 Increasing Control over C… Media Repression   0.0281   0.00441 1.83e-10 42561

Report of all Graphs

This is report of all the tables and graphs produce in the spring 2026 semester for the DEC using the currently published data set. Code chunks are not included in this document.

Franny Yong

2026-04-01