Equation

\[\begin{aligned} \mathrm{SCORE}_{9\mathrm{TH},\, i+4} - \mathrm{SCORE}_{5\mathrm{TH},\, i} \;=&\; \beta_0 + \sum_{c} \gamma_c \,\mathbb{1}(\mathrm{COHORT}_i = c) + \sum_{s} \lambda_s \,\mathbb{1}(\mathrm{STATE}_m = s) \\[4pt] &+ \beta_1 \,\mathrm{DROPOUT}_{m,i} + \beta_2 \,\mathrm{RACA\_PRETO}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} + \beta_3 \,\mathrm{NSE\_AVG}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} + \beta_4 \,\mathrm{SEXO\_M}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} \\[4pt] &+ \sum_{c} \delta_c \, \mathbb{1}(\mathrm{COHORT}_i = c) \times \mathrm{RACA\_PRETO}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} \\[4pt] &+ \sum_{c} \theta_c \, \mathbb{1}(\mathrm{COHORT}_i = c) \times \mathrm{NSE\_AVG}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} + \varepsilon_{m,i} \end{aligned}\]

where:

\[\begin{aligned} \mathrm{DROPOUT}_{m,i} = \frac{N^{(9)}_{m,i+4}}{N^{(5)}_{m,i}} \end{aligned}\]

State Value added

The state value-added represents the estimated academic gain for a specific state as if that state had the exact national average for all student and school characteristics.

\[\begin{aligned} \mathrm{ValueAdded}_{s} = \underbrace{\left( \hat{\alpha} + \sum_{j=1}^{P} \hat{\beta}_j \overline{X}_j \right)}_{\text{GO (Baseline)}} + \hat{\beta}_{s} \end{aligned}\]

Where:

Normalization (z-score)

##  normalized covariates (z-score with gloabl average/sd):**
##  GANHO_LEITURA, GANHO_MATEMATICA, NSE_AVG, avg_index_violence, kl_raca, kl_NSE, kl_raca_ses, ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2, afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 
## 
##  covariates kept in raw scale:**
##  SEXO_M, RACA_PRETO, DROP_OUT_RATE, proportion_estadual, NUM_SCHOOLS
Mean and SD by Cohort for All Variables (Normalized)
Variable 2007-2011_mean 2007-2011_sd 2009-2013_mean 2009-2013_sd 2011-2015_mean 2011-2015_sd 2013-2017_mean 2013-2017_sd
GANHO_LEITURA 0.207 0.992 -0.126 0.971 -0.047 0.995 -0.025 1.011
GANHO_MATEMATICA 0.393 1.004 -0.155 0.962 -0.082 0.939 -0.138 0.991
RACA_PRETO 0.088 0.064 0.094 0.064 0.101 0.068 0.104 0.068
NSE_AVG -0.168 1.026 -0.005 0.988 0.062 0.955 0.102 1.008
SEXO_M 0.446 0.071 0.453 0.069 0.455 0.067 0.461 0.066
NUM_SCHOOLS 5.668 20.909 10.243 29.028 10.885 30.107 15.261 34.818
proportion_estadual 0.558 0.237 0.550 0.241 0.537 0.376 0.526 0.377
avg_index_violence -0.297 0.795 0.282 0.658 -0.424 1.167 0.399 1.030
DROP_OUT_RATE 0.255 0.175 0.232 0.165 0.215 0.154 0.188 0.143
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 -0.085 0.781 -0.094 0.761 0.103 1.181 0.071 1.168
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 -0.081 0.812 -0.087 0.792 0.120 1.185 0.046 1.124
kl_raca 0.050 0.780 0.041 0.761 -0.091 1.169 0.000 1.186
kl_NSE 0.186 0.819 0.123 0.779 -0.141 1.177 -0.158 1.109
kl_raca_ses 0.207 0.829 0.169 0.794 -0.195 1.151 -0.170 1.098

Descriptive Statistics by Socioeconomic Group

Unnormalized Learning Gains (Natural Points)

White TOP SES
Unnormalized Learning Gains - White TOP SES
COHORT Reading Gain Math Gain n
2007-2011 67.18 57.94 4890
2009-2013 58.48 41.42 5558
2011-2015 58.56 40.10 5617
2013-2017 60.79 43.56 6339
Overall 61.05 45.30 22404
White BOTTOM SES
Unnormalized Learning Gains - White BOTTOM SES
COHORT Reading Gain Math Gain n
2007-2011 67.92 58.09 6021
2009-2013 62.19 47.20 5664
2011-2015 63.69 49.70 5340
2013-2017 67.45 51.08 5382
Overall 65.35 51.66 22407
Black/Brown TOP SES
Unnormalized Learning Gains - Black/Brown TOP SES
COHORT Reading Gain Math Gain n
2007-2011 62.87 53.62 2403
2009-2013 54.72 38.38 2879
2011-2015 56.51 39.42 2983
2013-2017 61.01 42.79 3367
NA NaN NaN 550
Overall 58.68 43.07 12182
Black/Brown BOTTOM SES
Unnormalized Learning Gains - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES
COHORT Reading Gain Math Gain n
2007-2011 64.76 55.27 3065
2009-2013 58.77 44.56 2955
2011-2015 61.58 48.19 2744
2013-2017 63.27 46.52 2868
NA NaN NaN 550
Overall 62.12 48.72 12182
Black TOP SES
Unnormalized Learning Gains - Black TOP SES
COHORT Reading Gain Math Gain n
2007-2011 67.35 59.09 4670
2009-2013 58.26 43.91 5452
2011-2015 60.52 45.70 5470
2013-2017 63.08 45.58 5673
Overall 62.12 48.15 21265
Black BOTTOM SES
Unnormalized Learning Gains - Black BOTTOM SES
COHORT Reading Gain Math Gain n
2007-2011 67.94 58.39 5714
2009-2013 61.04 48.06 5299
2011-2015 64.59 53.61 4944
2013-2017 65.07 50.45 5309
Overall 64.73 52.72 21266

5th Grade Initial Scores (Natural Points)

White TOP SES
5th Grade Initial Scores - White TOP SES
COHORT Reading 5th Grade Math 5th Grade n
2007-2011 185.15 205.09 4890
2009-2013 194.32 218.78 5558
2011-2015 201.82 224.75 5617
2013-2017 206.66 225.91 6339
Overall 197.69 219.30 22404
White BOTTOM SES
5th Grade Initial Scores - White BOTTOM SES
COHORT Reading 5th Grade Math 5th Grade n
2007-2011 162.03 179.90 6021
2009-2013 169.20 188.66 5664
2011-2015 174.33 191.78 5340
2013-2017 176.38 190.83 5382
Overall 170.22 187.57 22407
Black/Brown TOP SES
5th Grade Initial Scores - Black/Brown TOP SES
COHORT Reading 5th Grade Math 5th Grade n
2007-2011 179.69 198.70 2403
2009-2013 188.31 211.70 2879
2011-2015 193.75 215.68 2983
2013-2017 198.83 218.17 3367
NA NaN NaN 550
Overall 190.97 211.91 12182
Black/Brown BOTTOM SES
5th Grade Initial Scores - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES
COHORT Reading 5th Grade Math 5th Grade n
2007-2011 162.92 180.61 3065
2009-2013 169.94 189.57 2955
2011-2015 173.88 191.56 2744
2013-2017 176.92 192.39 2868
NA NaN NaN 550
Overall 170.74 188.37 12182
Black TOP SES
5th Grade Initial Scores - Black TOP SES
COHORT Reading 5th Grade Math 5th Grade n
2007-2011 167.88 185.78 4670
2009-2013 176.62 198.65 5452
2011-2015 182.38 202.65 5470
2013-2017 185.87 204.33 5673
Overall 178.65 198.37 21265
Black BOTTOM SES
5th Grade Initial Scores - Black BOTTOM SES
COHORT Reading 5th Grade Math 5th Grade n
2007-2011 155.11 173.24 5714
2009-2013 162.99 182.32 5299
2011-2015 166.44 183.54 4944
2013-2017 168.96 183.60 5309
Overall 163.17 180.48 21266
White (All SES)
5th Grade Initial Scores - White (All SES)
COHORT Reading 5th Grade Math 5th Grade n
2007-2011 172.39 191.19 10911
2009-2013 181.64 203.58 11222
2011-2015 188.42 208.68 10957
2013-2017 192.75 209.80 11721
Overall 183.95 203.44 44811
Black/Brown (All SES)
5th Grade Initial Scores - Black/Brown (All SES)
COHORT Reading 5th Grade Math 5th Grade n
2007-2011 170.29 188.56 5551
2009-2013 179.00 200.49 5925
2011-2015 184.23 204.12 5850
2013-2017 188.75 206.31 6488
Overall 180.85 200.14 23814
Black (All SES)
5th Grade Initial Scores - Black (All SES)
COHORT Reading 5th Grade Math 5th Grade n
2007-2011 160.86 178.88 10384
2009-2013 169.90 190.60 10751
2011-2015 174.81 193.57 10414
2013-2017 177.69 194.31 10982
Overall 170.91 189.42 42531

Normalized Statistics by Group

White TOP SES

Descriptive Statistics - White TOP SES
Variable 2007-2011 2009-2013 2011-2015 2013-2017 Overall
LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 252.327 252.795 260.388 267.447 258.742
LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL 185.150 194.316 201.823 206.656 197.689
kl_raca 0.029 0.024 -0.130 0.007 -0.018
kl_NSE 0.042 -0.028 -0.375 -0.306 -0.179
kl_raca_ses 0.152 0.083 -0.267 -0.193 -0.068
MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL 263.034 260.193 264.847 269.470 264.605
MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL 205.093 218.775 224.745 225.908 219.304
NUM_SCHOOLS 7.654 9.980 10.483 18.022 11.874
proportion_estadual 0.634 0.626 0.689 0.679 0.659
avg_index_violence -0.333 0.373 -0.157 0.502 0.122
DROP_OUT_RATE 0.168 0.151 0.146 0.131 0.148
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 -0.315 -0.301 -0.363 -0.367 -0.338
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 -0.373 -0.352 -0.439 -0.470 -0.412
GANHO_LEITURA 0.209 -0.207 -0.212 -0.269 -0.135
GANHO_MATEMATICA 0.403 -0.322 -0.391 -0.397 -0.202
n 4890.000 5558.000 5617.000 6339.000 22404.000

White BOTTOM SES

Descriptive Statistics - White BOTTOM SES
Variable 2007-2011 2009-2013 2011-2015 2013-2017 Overall
LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 229.945 231.390 238.017 243.825 235.568
LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL 162.029 169.197 174.326 176.379 170.218
kl_raca 0.063 0.050 -0.034 0.066 0.037
kl_NSE 0.210 0.142 0.023 0.010 0.100
kl_raca_ses 0.123 0.092 -0.187 -0.144 -0.023
MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL 237.988 235.864 241.483 241.916 239.227
MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL 179.896 188.664 191.779 190.831 187.571
NUM_SCHOOLS 4.031 8.984 9.575 10.041 8.048
proportion_estadual 0.495 0.472 0.377 0.346 0.425
avg_index_violence -0.486 0.237 -0.444 0.268 -0.112
DROP_OUT_RATE 0.324 0.310 0.284 0.251 0.293
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 0.157 0.172 0.583 0.575 0.363
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 0.221 0.244 0.681 0.600 0.427
GANHO_LEITURA 0.265 0.031 0.096 0.262 0.165
GANHO_MATEMATICA 0.428 -0.013 0.094 0.147 0.169
n 6021.000 5664.000 5340.000 5382.000 22407.000

Black/Brown TOP SES

Descriptive Statistics - Black/Brown TOP SES
Variable 2007-2011 2009-2013 2011-2015 2013-2017 NA Overall
LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 242.557 243.031 250.254 259.849 NaN 249.654
LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL 179.692 188.306 193.746 198.835 NaN 190.969
kl_raca 0.159 0.144 -0.110 -0.082 NaN 0.017
kl_NSE 0.346 0.339 -0.274 -0.333 NaN -0.011
kl_raca_ses 0.440 0.436 -0.172 -0.220 NaN 0.091
MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL 252.315 250.077 255.104 260.959 NaN 254.979
MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL 198.699 211.696 215.680 218.172 NaN 211.907
NUM_SCHOOLS 7.716 12.836 13.690 21.025 NaN 14.368
proportion_estadual 0.565 0.565 0.701 0.683 NaN 0.634
avg_index_violence 0.162 0.186 -0.773 0.489 NaN 0.023
DROP_OUT_RATE 0.162 0.148 0.145 0.134 NaN 0.146
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 -0.223 -0.225 -0.394 -0.361 NaN -0.307
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 -0.243 -0.243 -0.456 -0.447 NaN -0.357
GANHO_LEITURA 0.018 -0.361 -0.289 -0.309 NaN -0.249
GANHO_MATEMATICA 0.217 -0.438 -0.403 -0.467 NaN -0.302
n 2403.000 2879.000 2983.000 3367.000 550 12182.000

Black/Brown BOTTOM SES

Descriptive Statistics - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES
Variable 2007-2011 2009-2013 2011-2015 2013-2017 NA Overall
LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 227.685 228.716 235.457 240.187 NaN 232.863
LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL 162.923 169.942 173.875 176.919 NaN 170.740
kl_raca 0.141 0.140 0.031 -0.007 NaN 0.078
kl_NSE 0.352 0.344 0.180 -0.019 NaN 0.218
kl_raca_ses 0.447 0.438 -0.092 -0.213 NaN 0.155
MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL 235.879 234.125 239.751 238.912 NaN 237.094
MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL 180.609 189.567 191.556 192.390 NaN 188.372
NUM_SCHOOLS 3.433 13.052 14.530 13.940 NaN 11.085
proportion_estadual 0.560 0.558 0.396 0.362 NaN 0.472
avg_index_violence 0.168 0.183 -1.014 0.273 NaN -0.081
DROP_OUT_RATE 0.328 0.310 0.285 0.251 NaN 0.294
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 -0.216 -0.205 0.607 0.584 NaN 0.178
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 -0.232 -0.227 0.781 0.740 NaN 0.248
GANHO_LEITURA 0.119 -0.084 0.042 0.101 NaN 0.045
GANHO_MATEMATICA 0.308 -0.080 0.053 -0.006 NaN 0.072
n 3065.000 2955.000 2744.000 2868.000 550 12182.000

Black TOP SES

Descriptive Statistics - Black TOP SES
Variable 2007-2011 2009-2013 2011-2015 2013-2017 Overall
LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 235.234 234.886 242.898 248.951 240.776
LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL 167.883 176.624 182.381 185.870 178.652
kl_raca -0.018 -0.024 -0.166 -0.067 -0.070
kl_NSE 0.103 0.038 -0.262 -0.246 -0.101
kl_raca_ses 0.201 0.148 -0.172 -0.135 0.002
MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL 244.874 242.553 248.344 249.907 246.515
MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL 185.782 198.647 202.648 204.331 198.367
NUM_SCHOOLS 8.288 11.089 11.356 17.261 12.189
proportion_estadual 0.623 0.611 0.657 0.660 0.639
avg_index_violence -0.328 0.375 -0.179 0.527 0.119
DROP_OUT_RATE 0.179 0.165 0.162 0.140 0.160
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 -0.297 -0.262 -0.282 -0.342 -0.296
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 -0.347 -0.299 -0.369 -0.442 -0.366
GANHO_LEITURA 0.184 -0.214 -0.114 -0.091 -0.068
GANHO_MATEMATICA 0.413 -0.204 -0.141 -0.239 -0.062
n 4670.000 5452.000 5470.000 5673.000 21265.000

Black BOTTOM SES

Descriptive Statistics - Black BOTTOM SES
Variable 2007-2011 2009-2013 2011-2015 2013-2017 Overall
LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 223.053 224.032 231.029 234.030 227.892
LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL 155.113 162.990 166.443 168.956 163.166
kl_raca 0.013 0.004 -0.084 0.044 -0.004
kl_NSE 0.194 0.106 -0.016 -0.043 0.064
kl_raca_ses 0.118 0.062 -0.217 -0.178 -0.048
MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL 231.633 230.373 237.148 234.051 233.205
MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL 173.242 182.315 183.535 183.600 180.482
NUM_SCHOOLS 3.785 7.778 8.302 8.267 6.949
proportion_estadual 0.500 0.478 0.386 0.367 0.435
avg_index_violence -0.491 0.247 -0.431 0.293 -0.097
DROP_OUT_RATE 0.319 0.304 0.279 0.242 0.287
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 0.160 0.148 0.560 0.536 0.344
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 0.222 0.221 0.672 0.568 0.412
GANHO_LEITURA 0.288 -0.016 0.154 0.157 0.148
GANHO_MATEMATICA 0.452 0.029 0.264 0.129 0.222
n 5714.000 5299.000 4944.000 5309.000 21266.000

Regression and Value-added Results

White students TOP SES

Reading - White TOP SES
Dependent variable:
base_formula
Model 1 Model 2 Model 2 + Segregation Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013 -0.431*** -0.400*** -0.400*** -0.436***
(0.049) (0.048) (0.048) (0.049)
Cohort 2011-2015 -0.272*** -0.214*** -0.215*** -0.253***
(0.049) (0.048) (0.048) (0.048)
Cohort 2013-2017 -0.403*** -0.299*** -0.300*** -0.314***
(0.045) (0.044) (0.044) (0.049)
% black students in municipality 1.991*** 1.198*** 1.199*** 0.893***
(0.189) (0.185) (0.185) (0.196)
Average municipal SES -0.025 0.012 0.012 0.073**
(0.028) (0.027) (0.027) (0.028)
Male students -0.933*** -0.374*** -0.375*** -0.242**
(0.078) (0.077) (0.077) (0.078)
% Teachers working single school -0.007 -0.007 -0.007
(0.007) (0.007) (0.007)
% Teachers w/o university degree 0.099*** 0.099*** 0.049***
(0.009) (0.009) (0.010)
Number of schools in municipality 0.0004** 0.0004** 0.0004*
(0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0002)
% Middle schools state-run -0.164*** -0.166*** -0.145***
(0.017) (0.018) (0.019)
Average school violence index -0.005 -0.005 -0.011*
(0.005) (0.005) (0.005)
Average municipal dropout rate 1.258*** 1.258*** 1.167***
(0.042) (0.042) (0.045)
School race segregation index -0.003 -0.004
(0.005) (0.005)
School social class segregation index -1.309*** -1.216*** -1.216*** -1.236***
(0.252) (0.244) (0.244) (0.245)
School race-SES segregation index -1.660*** -1.502*** -1.501*** -1.437***
(0.249) (0.242) (0.242) (0.243)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students -1.234*** -1.019*** -1.019*** -0.867***
(0.244) (0.238) (0.238) (0.241)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students 0.103** 0.089* 0.089* 0.113**
(0.037) (0.036) (0.036) (0.037)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students -0.018 -0.041 -0.041 -0.031
(0.037) (0.036) (0.036) (0.036)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES 0.015 -0.034 -0.035 -0.048
(0.033) (0.032) (0.032) (0.037)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES 0.521*** 0.204*** 0.205*** 0.438***
(0.051) (0.053) (0.053) (0.056)
Observations 22,404 22,404 22,404 21,353
R2 0.072 0.129 0.129 0.166
Adjusted R2 0.072 0.128 0.128 0.164
Residual Std. Error 0.736 (df = 22391) 0.713 (df = 22385) 0.713 (df = 22384) 0.713 (df = 21307)
F Statistic 144.966*** (df = 12; 22391) 184.420*** (df = 18; 22385) 174.726*** (df = 19; 22384) 94.367*** (df = 45; 21307)
Note: p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001
state Value-added
AC -0.297
AL 0.289
AM -0.145
AP -0.440
BA -0.159
CE -0.233
DF -0.993
ES -0.475
GO -0.137
MA 0.035
MG -0.565
MS -0.133
MT -0.300
PA -0.448
PB -0.385
PE 0.208
PI -0.339
PR -0.565
RJ -0.647
RN -0.001
RO -0.078
RR -0.262
RS -0.519
SC -0.522
SE -0.230
SP -0.569
TO -0.027



Math - White TOP SES
Dependent variable:
base_formula
Model 1 Model 2 Model 2 + Segregation Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013 -0.722*** -0.695*** -0.695*** -0.736***
(0.052) (0.050) (0.050) (0.050)
Cohort 2011-2015 -0.685*** -0.619*** -0.618*** -0.696***
(0.052) (0.050) (0.050) (0.050)
Cohort 2013-2017 -0.723*** -0.599*** -0.598*** -0.708***
(0.048) (0.046) (0.046) (0.051)
% black students in municipality 1.407*** 0.543** 0.542** 0.027
(0.200) (0.194) (0.194) (0.202)
Average municipal SES 0.080** 0.113*** 0.113*** 0.150***
(0.029) (0.028) (0.028) (0.029)
Male students -0.919*** -0.280*** -0.279*** 0.077
(0.082) (0.081) (0.081) (0.081)
% Teachers working single school 0.006 0.006 -0.009
(0.007) (0.007) (0.008)
% Teachers w/o university degree 0.152*** 0.152*** 0.059***
(0.009) (0.009) (0.010)
Number of schools in municipality 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.0004*
(0.0002) (0.0002) (0.0002)
% Middle schools state-run -0.234*** -0.233*** -0.194***
(0.018) (0.019) (0.019)
Average school violence index -0.007 -0.007 -0.005
(0.005) (0.005) (0.005)
Average municipal dropout rate 1.291*** 1.291*** 0.942***
(0.044) (0.044) (0.046)
School race segregation index 0.002 -0.008
(0.005) (0.005)
School social class segregation index -0.220 -0.142 -0.141 -0.287
(0.266) (0.256) (0.256) (0.253)
School race-SES segregation index -0.486 -0.401 -0.402 -0.418
(0.263) (0.254) (0.254) (0.250)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students -0.535* -0.434 -0.434 -0.288
(0.258) (0.250) (0.250) (0.249)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students 0.004 -0.006 -0.006 0.022
(0.040) (0.038) (0.038) (0.038)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students -0.074 -0.090* -0.090* -0.052
(0.039) (0.038) (0.038) (0.038)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES -0.043 -0.092** -0.092** -0.049
(0.035) (0.034) (0.034) (0.038)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES 0.643*** 0.356*** 0.355*** 0.563***
(0.054) (0.055) (0.055) (0.058)
Observations 22,404 22,404 22,404 21,353
R2 0.156 0.220 0.220 0.278
Adjusted R2 0.155 0.219 0.219 0.276
Residual Std. Error 0.779 (df = 22391) 0.749 (df = 22385) 0.749 (df = 22384) 0.736 (df = 21307)
F Statistic 344.238*** (df = 12; 22391) 350.370*** (df = 18; 22385) 331.923*** (df = 19; 22384) 182.332*** (df = 45; 21307)
Note: p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001
state Value-added
AC -0.306
AL 0.261
AM -0.273
AP -0.461
BA -0.069
CE -0.456
DF -0.928
ES -0.315
GO -0.205
MA 0.119
MG -0.603
MS -0.203
MT -0.286
PA -0.459
PB -0.451
PE -0.012
PI -0.090
PR -0.740
RJ -0.619
RN -0.212
RO -0.110
RR -0.330
RS -0.513
SC -0.488
SE -0.124
SP -0.864
TO 0.084



White students BOTTOM SES

Reading - White TBOTTOM SES
Dependent variable:
base_formula
Model 1 Model 2 Model 2 + Segregation Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013 -0.376*** -0.378*** -0.378*** -0.410***
(0.033) (0.032) (0.032) (0.033)
Cohort 2011-2015 -0.261*** -0.252*** -0.247*** -0.301***
(0.034) (0.033) (0.033) (0.034)
Cohort 2013-2017 -0.283*** -0.240*** -0.235*** -0.298***
(0.034) (0.034) (0.034) (0.034)
% black students in municipality -0.389* -0.657*** -0.655*** -0.662***
(0.169) (0.165) (0.165) (0.172)
Average municipal SES 0.237*** 0.345*** 0.346*** 0.442***
(0.018) (0.018) (0.018) (0.019)
Male students -1.164*** -0.492*** -0.491*** -0.482***
(0.088) (0.088) (0.088) (0.091)
% Teachers working single school -0.034*** -0.034*** -0.045***
(0.006) (0.006) (0.007)
% Teachers w/o university degree -0.026*** -0.027*** -0.001
(0.006) (0.006) (0.007)
Number of schools in municipality 0.0004 0.0003 0.001
(0.0003) (0.0003) (0.001)
% Middle schools state-run -0.419*** -0.417*** -0.242***
(0.022) (0.022) (0.027)
Average school violence index -0.020** -0.020** -0.022***
(0.006) (0.006) (0.006)
Average municipal dropout rate 1.061*** 1.059*** 1.046***
(0.039) (0.039) (0.044)
School race segregation index 0.013* 0.010
(0.006) (0.006)
School social class segregation index 0.404 0.416 0.421 0.531*
(0.245) (0.238) (0.238) (0.238)
School race-SES segregation index -0.196 -0.189 -0.193 0.010
(0.236) (0.230) (0.230) (0.230)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students 0.949*** 0.931*** 0.928*** 1.174***
(0.234) (0.228) (0.228) (0.227)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students -0.174*** -0.184*** -0.185*** -0.185***
(0.026) (0.025) (0.025) (0.026)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students -0.213*** -0.194*** -0.195*** -0.218***
(0.028) (0.027) (0.027) (0.028)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES -0.341*** -0.325*** -0.325*** -0.372***
(0.028) (0.028) (0.028) (0.029)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES 0.945*** 0.612*** 0.611*** 0.734***
(0.046) (0.050) (0.050) (0.063)
Observations 22,407 22,407 22,407 21,655
R2 0.029 0.085 0.085 0.114
Adjusted R2 0.029 0.084 0.084 0.113
Residual Std. Error 0.899 (df = 22394) 0.873 (df = 22388) 0.873 (df = 22387) 0.869 (df = 21610)
F Statistic 56.395*** (df = 12; 22394) 114.830*** (df = 18; 22388) 109.015*** (df = 19; 22387) 63.436*** (df = 44; 21610)
Note: p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001
state Value-added
AC 0.073
AL 0.156
AM -0.121
AP -0.151
BA -0.043
CE 0.422
ES -0.290
GO 0.173
MA 0.112
MG -0.087
MS 0.083
MT -0.191
PA -0.148
PB -0.025
PE 0.252
PI 0.063
PR -0.307
RJ -0.476
RN 0.214
RO 0.065
RR -0.094
RS -0.254
SC -0.313
SE 0.144
SP -0.373
TO 0.003



Math - White TBOTTOM SES
Dependent variable:
base_formula
Model 1 Model 2 Model 2 + Segregation Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013 -0.661*** -0.671*** -0.672*** -0.714***
(0.032) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031)
Cohort 2011-2015 -0.565*** -0.573*** -0.559*** -0.636***
(0.033) (0.032) (0.032) (0.032)
Cohort 2013-2017 -0.631*** -0.613*** -0.602*** -0.690***
(0.033) (0.033) (0.033) (0.033)
% black students in municipality -0.707*** -0.979*** -0.972*** -1.153***
(0.164) (0.160) (0.160) (0.166)
Average municipal SES 0.253*** 0.362*** 0.365*** 0.484***
(0.017) (0.017) (0.017) (0.018)
Male students -0.767*** -0.142 -0.142 -0.047
(0.086) (0.086) (0.085) (0.087)
% Teachers working single school -0.025*** -0.025*** -0.026***
(0.006) (0.006) (0.006)
% Teachers w/o university degree -0.016* -0.017** 0.013*
(0.006) (0.006) (0.007)
Number of schools in municipality 0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0002
(0.0003) (0.0003) (0.001)
% Middle schools state-run -0.481*** -0.475*** -0.239***
(0.021) (0.021) (0.026)
Average school violence index -0.012 -0.012* -0.012*
(0.006) (0.006) (0.006)
Average municipal dropout rate 0.888*** 0.883*** 0.788***
(0.038) (0.038) (0.042)
School race segregation index 0.034*** 0.034***
(0.006) (0.006)
School social class segregation index 0.684** 0.692** 0.704** 0.821***
(0.238) (0.231) (0.231) (0.229)
School race-SES segregation index 0.480* 0.475* 0.464* 0.698**
(0.229) (0.223) (0.223) (0.221)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students 1.089*** 1.053*** 1.046*** 1.314***
(0.227) (0.221) (0.221) (0.219)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students -0.265*** -0.277*** -0.280*** -0.287***
(0.025) (0.025) (0.025) (0.025)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students -0.346*** -0.318*** -0.320*** -0.365***
(0.027) (0.026) (0.026) (0.027)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES -0.453*** -0.424*** -0.425*** -0.493***
(0.027) (0.027) (0.027) (0.028)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES 0.979*** 0.755*** 0.752*** 0.835***
(0.044) (0.048) (0.048) (0.061)
Observations 22,407 22,407 22,407 21,655
R2 0.053 0.106 0.107 0.148
Adjusted R2 0.052 0.105 0.107 0.146
Residual Std. Error 0.872 (df = 22394) 0.847 (df = 22388) 0.846 (df = 22387) 0.837 (df = 21610)
F Statistic 103.442*** (df = 12; 22394) 147.784*** (df = 18; 22388) 141.843*** (df = 19; 22387) 85.408*** (df = 44; 21610)
Note: p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001
state Value-added
AC 0.184
AL 0.250
AM -0.317
AP -0.161
BA 0.028
CE 0.437
ES -0.113
GO 0.179
MA 0.095
MG -0.116
MS 0.120
MT -0.170
PA -0.073
PB -0.010
PE 0.315
PI 0.279
PR -0.379
RJ -0.353
RN 0.289
RO 0.062
RR 0.160
RS -0.105
SC -0.210
SE 0.284
SP -0.590
TO 0.127



Black/Brown students TOP SES

Reading - Black/Brown TOP SES
Dependent variable:
base_formula
Model 1 Model 2 Model 2 + Segregation Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013 -0.239*** -0.229*** -0.229*** -0.244***
(0.048) (0.047) (0.047) (0.048)
Cohort 2011-2015 -0.106* 0.001 0.009 -0.045
(0.049) (0.049) (0.050) (0.051)
Cohort 2013-2017 -0.175*** -0.059 -0.051 -0.071
(0.045) (0.044) (0.045) (0.050)
% black students in municipality 1.769*** 0.971*** 0.972*** 1.026***
(0.294) (0.287) (0.287) (0.304)
Average municipal SES 0.164*** 0.190*** 0.191*** 0.195***
(0.036) (0.035) (0.035) (0.037)
Male students -0.709*** -0.207 -0.204 0.038
(0.113) (0.111) (0.111) (0.115)
% Teachers working single school -0.052*** -0.052*** -0.061***
(0.011) (0.011) (0.012)
% Teachers w/o university degree 0.090*** 0.089*** 0.037*
(0.015) (0.015) (0.017)
Number of schools in municipality 0.001** 0.001* -0.0001
(0.0002) (0.0002) (0.0003)
% Middle schools state-run -0.245*** -0.239*** -0.186***
(0.030) (0.031) (0.032)
Average school violence index 0.016 0.016 0.012
(0.009) (0.009) (0.010)
Average municipal dropout rate 1.437*** 1.437*** 1.189***
(0.061) (0.061) (0.066)
School race segregation index 0.008 0.004
(0.008) (0.008)
School social class segregation index -1.248** -1.117** -1.114** -1.486***
(0.394) (0.382) (0.382) (0.388)
School race-SES segregation index -1.453*** -1.525*** -1.542*** -1.818***
(0.385) (0.374) (0.375) (0.381)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students -1.316*** -1.279*** -1.292*** -1.508***
(0.375) (0.365) (0.365) (0.375)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students -0.106* -0.105* -0.105* -0.075
(0.048) (0.047) (0.047) (0.048)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students -0.179*** -0.203*** -0.207*** -0.159**
(0.049) (0.047) (0.047) (0.049)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES -0.123** -0.186*** -0.188*** -0.204***
(0.042) (0.041) (0.041) (0.049)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES 0.133* -0.150* -0.158* 0.054
(0.064) (0.066) (0.066) (0.071)
Observations 11,632 11,632 11,632 10,823
R2 0.042 0.103 0.104 0.139
Adjusted R2 0.041 0.102 0.102 0.136
Residual Std. Error 0.749 (df = 11619) 0.725 (df = 11613) 0.725 (df = 11612) 0.729 (df = 10778)
F Statistic 42.677*** (df = 12; 11619) 74.453*** (df = 18; 11613) 70.589*** (df = 19; 11612) 39.552*** (df = 44; 10778)
Note: p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001
state Value-added
AC -0.243
AM -0.323
AP -0.590
BA -0.329
CE -0.414
DF -1.097
ES -0.508
GO -0.258
MA -0.456
MG -0.636
MS -0.295
MT -0.539
PA -0.406
PB -0.369
PE -0.105
PI -0.213
PR -0.747
RJ -0.639
RN 0.091
RO -0.295
RR -0.682
RS -0.515
SC -0.532
SE -0.210
SP -0.718
TO -0.411



Math - Black/Brown TOP SES
Dependent variable:
base_formula
Model 1 Model 2 Model 2 + Segregation Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013 -0.656*** -0.645*** -0.645*** -0.655***
(0.049) (0.047) (0.047) (0.047)
Cohort 2011-2015 -0.491*** -0.365*** -0.353*** -0.422***
(0.050) (0.050) (0.050) (0.051)
Cohort 2013-2017 -0.600*** -0.448*** -0.437*** -0.476***
(0.045) (0.045) (0.045) (0.049)
% black students in municipality 1.401*** 0.582* 0.584* 0.449
(0.297) (0.289) (0.289) (0.302)
Average municipal SES 0.152*** 0.175*** 0.175*** 0.182***
(0.037) (0.035) (0.035) (0.037)
Male students -1.066*** -0.533*** -0.530*** -0.105
(0.114) (0.112) (0.112) (0.114)
% Teachers working single school -0.024* -0.025* -0.044***
(0.012) (0.012) (0.012)
% Teachers w/o university degree 0.135*** 0.135*** 0.050**
(0.015) (0.015) (0.017)
Number of schools in municipality 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.00004
(0.0002) (0.0002) (0.0003)
% Middle schools state-run -0.290*** -0.282*** -0.223***
(0.030) (0.031) (0.032)
Average school violence index 0.013 0.013 0.013
(0.009) (0.009) (0.010)
Average municipal dropout rate 1.407*** 1.407*** 1.003***
(0.061) (0.061) (0.066)
School race segregation index 0.012 0.0002
(0.008) (0.008)
School social class segregation index -0.090 0.019 0.023 -0.403
(0.399) (0.385) (0.385) (0.386)
School race-SES segregation index -0.716 -0.904* -0.930* -1.305***
(0.390) (0.377) (0.378) (0.379)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students -0.873* -1.004** -1.022** -1.388***
(0.379) (0.367) (0.368) (0.372)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students -0.020 -0.020 -0.019 0.007
(0.049) (0.047) (0.047) (0.048)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students -0.153** -0.166*** -0.172*** -0.113*
(0.049) (0.047) (0.048) (0.049)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES -0.069 -0.140*** -0.143*** -0.163***
(0.042) (0.041) (0.041) (0.049)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES 0.533*** 0.283*** 0.271*** 0.461***
(0.064) (0.066) (0.067) (0.071)
Observations 11,632 11,632 11,632 10,823
R2 0.123 0.186 0.186 0.244
Adjusted R2 0.122 0.185 0.185 0.240
Residual Std. Error 0.757 (df = 11619) 0.730 (df = 11613) 0.730 (df = 11612) 0.724 (df = 10778)
F Statistic 136.143*** (df = 12; 11619) 147.190*** (df = 18; 11613) 139.574*** (df = 19; 11612) 78.872*** (df = 44; 10778)
Note: p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001
state Value-added
AC -0.264
AM -0.549
AP -0.635
BA -0.265
CE -0.508
DF -1.085
ES -0.419
GO -0.313
MA -0.282
MG -0.700
MS -0.388
MT -0.496
PA -0.480
PB -0.519
PE -0.141
PI -0.314
PR -0.886
RJ -0.651
RN 0.044
RO -0.290
RR -0.408
RS -0.561
SC -0.547
SE -0.001
SP -0.937
TO -0.274



Black/Brown students BOTTOM SES

Reading - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES
Dependent variable:
base_formula
Model 1 Model 2 Model 2 + Segregation Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013 -0.423*** -0.439*** -0.439*** -0.481***
(0.045) (0.043) (0.043) (0.045)
Cohort 2011-2015 -0.302*** -0.279*** -0.277*** -0.364***
(0.046) (0.046) (0.047) (0.049)
Cohort 2013-2017 -0.416*** -0.348*** -0.346*** -0.460***
(0.046) (0.045) (0.045) (0.048)
% black students in municipality -0.372* -0.540** -0.540** -0.747***
(0.184) (0.177) (0.177) (0.186)
Average municipal SES 0.178*** 0.254*** 0.254*** 0.363***
(0.023) (0.023) (0.023) (0.025)
Male students -0.691*** -0.176 -0.176 -0.116
(0.092) (0.091) (0.091) (0.095)
% Teachers working single school -0.035*** -0.035*** -0.048***
(0.008) (0.008) (0.009)
% Teachers w/o university degree -0.004 -0.004 0.031***
(0.008) (0.008) (0.009)
Number of schools in municipality 0.0004 0.0004 0.001
(0.0002) (0.0003) (0.001)
% Middle schools state-run -0.484*** -0.484*** -0.337***
(0.029) (0.029) (0.034)
Average school violence index -0.018 -0.018 -0.020*
(0.009) (0.009) (0.010)
Average municipal dropout rate 0.939*** 0.939*** 0.916***
(0.041) (0.041) (0.047)
School race segregation index 0.002 0.006
(0.008) (0.009)
School social class segregation index 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.133
(0.265) (0.254) (0.254) (0.256)
School race-SES segregation index -0.160 -0.267 -0.267 -0.094
(0.266) (0.257) (0.257) (0.259)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students 0.831** 0.760** 0.760** 0.985***
(0.255) (0.246) (0.246) (0.249)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students -0.242*** -0.262*** -0.262*** -0.257***
(0.035) (0.034) (0.034) (0.036)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students -0.277*** -0.201*** -0.200*** -0.228***
(0.038) (0.037) (0.037) (0.042)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES -0.364*** -0.274*** -0.274*** -0.352***
(0.037) (0.037) (0.037) (0.041)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES 0.620*** 0.447*** 0.446*** 0.566***
(0.052) (0.055) (0.055) (0.073)
Observations 11,632 11,632 11,632 10,841
R2 0.029 0.105 0.105 0.145
Adjusted R2 0.028 0.104 0.104 0.141
Residual Std. Error 0.687 (df = 11619) 0.660 (df = 11613) 0.660 (df = 11612) 0.663 (df = 10796)
F Statistic 29.220*** (df = 12; 11619) 75.789*** (df = 18; 11613) 71.797*** (df = 19; 11612) 41.602*** (df = 44; 10796)
Note: p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001
state Value-added
AC 0.029
AL 0.111
AM -0.235
AP -0.256
BA -0.062
CE 0.276
ES -0.165
GO 0.055
MA -0.035
MG -0.070
MS -0.256
MT -0.197
PA -0.255
PB -0.111
PE 0.159
PI 0.047
PR -0.455
RJ -0.307
RN 0.183
RO 0.122
RR -0.318
RS -0.040
SC -0.391
SE 0.078
SP -0.426
TO 0.019



Math - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES
Dependent variable:
base_formula
Model 1 Model 2 Model 2 + Segregation Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013 -0.695*** -0.710*** -0.710*** -0.776***
(0.045) (0.044) (0.044) (0.045)
Cohort 2011-2015 -0.609*** -0.576*** -0.561*** -0.688***
(0.047) (0.047) (0.047) (0.049)
Cohort 2013-2017 -0.821*** -0.757*** -0.742*** -0.898***
(0.046) (0.045) (0.045) (0.048)
% black students in municipality -0.638*** -0.792*** -0.790*** -1.089***
(0.185) (0.178) (0.178) (0.186)
Average municipal SES 0.208*** 0.278*** 0.278*** 0.420***
(0.024) (0.023) (0.023) (0.025)
Male students -0.637*** -0.118 -0.122 -0.005
(0.093) (0.092) (0.092) (0.095)
% Teachers working single school -0.040*** -0.040*** -0.046***
(0.008) (0.008) (0.009)
% Teachers w/o university degree 0.014 0.012 0.054***
(0.008) (0.008) (0.009)
Number of schools in municipality 0.0002 0.00004 -0.0002
(0.0002) (0.0003) (0.001)
% Middle schools state-run -0.499*** -0.495*** -0.294***
(0.030) (0.030) (0.034)
Average school violence index -0.007 -0.006 -0.005
(0.010) (0.010) (0.010)
Average municipal dropout rate 0.877*** 0.874*** 0.785***
(0.041) (0.041) (0.047)
School race segregation index 0.018* 0.025**
(0.008) (0.009)
School social class segregation index 0.327 0.328 0.328 0.472
(0.267) (0.257) (0.257) (0.257)
School race-SES segregation index 0.397 0.247 0.246 0.436
(0.269) (0.259) (0.259) (0.259)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students 0.983*** 0.851*** 0.851*** 1.098***
(0.257) (0.248) (0.248) (0.249)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students -0.304*** -0.325*** -0.326*** -0.339***
(0.035) (0.034) (0.034) (0.036)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students -0.363*** -0.277*** -0.276*** -0.341***
(0.038) (0.037) (0.037) (0.042)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES -0.479*** -0.378*** -0.378*** -0.471***
(0.037) (0.037) (0.037) (0.041)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES 0.839*** 0.689*** 0.681*** 0.783***
(0.053) (0.056) (0.056) (0.073)
Observations 11,632 11,632 11,632 10,841
R2 0.065 0.136 0.136 0.190
Adjusted R2 0.064 0.135 0.135 0.187
Residual Std. Error 0.693 (df = 11619) 0.666 (df = 11613) 0.666 (df = 11612) 0.663 (df = 10796)
F Statistic 67.232*** (df = 12; 11619) 101.441*** (df = 18; 11613) 96.376*** (df = 19; 11612) 57.723*** (df = 44; 10796)
Note: p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001
state Value-added
AC 0.206
AL 0.251
AM -0.321
AP -0.204
BA 0.016
CE 0.363
ES -0.056
GO 0.086
MA -0.015
MG -0.080
MS -0.059
MT -0.084
PA -0.193
PB -0.046
PE 0.238
PI 0.227
PR -0.483
RJ -0.094
RN 0.250
RO 0.138
RR -0.219
RS 0.094
SC -0.294
SE 0.244
SP -0.582
TO 0.148



Black students TOP SES

Reading - Black TOP SES
Dependent variable:
base_formula
Model 1 Model 2 Model 2 + Segregation Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013 -0.180*** -0.171** -0.171** -0.185***
(0.055) (0.054) (0.054) (0.055)
Cohort 2011-2015 0.032 0.044 0.051 0.018
(0.055) (0.054) (0.055) (0.056)
Cohort 2013-2017 0.013 0.089 0.095 0.019
(0.054) (0.054) (0.054) (0.056)
% black students in municipality 1.587*** 0.941** 0.945** 0.617
(0.337) (0.336) (0.336) (0.356)
Average municipal SES 0.134*** 0.173*** 0.173*** 0.221***
(0.034) (0.034) (0.034) (0.035)
Male students -1.506*** -0.755*** -0.750*** -0.457**
(0.139) (0.141) (0.141) (0.147)
% Teachers working single school -0.008 -0.009 -0.031*
(0.012) (0.012) (0.013)
% Teachers w/o university degree 0.071*** 0.071*** 0.033
(0.015) (0.015) (0.017)
Number of schools in municipality 0.00000 -0.0001 0.0002
(0.0002) (0.0003) (0.0003)
% Middle schools state-run -0.169*** -0.160*** -0.140***
(0.030) (0.031) (0.034)
Average school violence index -0.014 -0.014 -0.017
(0.009) (0.009) (0.009)
Average municipal dropout rate 1.359*** 1.362*** 1.158***
(0.072) (0.072) (0.081)
School race segregation index 0.015 0.019*
(0.008) (0.009)
School social class segregation index -1.702*** -1.556*** -1.552*** -1.592***
(0.456) (0.450) (0.450) (0.457)
School race-SES segregation index -2.168*** -1.928*** -1.936*** -1.861***
(0.439) (0.435) (0.435) (0.441)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students -2.764*** -2.601*** -2.607*** -2.309***
(0.441) (0.437) (0.437) (0.446)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students -0.141** -0.139** -0.138** -0.135**
(0.045) (0.045) (0.045) (0.046)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students -0.256*** -0.256*** -0.257*** -0.245***
(0.046) (0.045) (0.045) (0.047)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES -0.075 -0.099* -0.099* -0.027
(0.043) (0.043) (0.043) (0.046)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES 0.687*** 0.250** 0.238** 0.484***
(0.076) (0.081) (0.081) (0.090)
Observations 21,265 21,265 21,265 20,380
R2 0.022 0.047 0.047 0.063
Adjusted R2 0.021 0.046 0.046 0.061
Residual Std. Error 1.237 (df = 21252) 1.222 (df = 21246) 1.221 (df = 21245) 1.235 (df = 20334)
F Statistic 39.244*** (df = 12; 21252) 57.891*** (df = 18; 21246) 55.009*** (df = 19; 21245) 30.284*** (df = 45; 20334)
Note: p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001
state Value-added
AC 0.098
AL -0.259
AM -0.313
AP -0.435
BA -0.266
CE -0.073
DF -1.018
ES -0.260
GO -0.067
MA -0.126
MG -0.436
MS -0.139
MT -0.366
PA -0.405
PB -0.198
PE -0.146
PI -0.239
PR -0.580
RJ -0.596
RN -0.006
RO -0.042
RR -0.226
RS -0.495
SC -0.483
SE -0.308
SP -0.606
TO -0.127



Math - Black TOP SES
Dependent variable:
base_formula
Model 1 Model 2 Model 2 + Segregation Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013 -0.533*** -0.532*** -0.532*** -0.551***
(0.052) (0.051) (0.051) (0.052)
Cohort 2011-2015 -0.289*** -0.272*** -0.262*** -0.298***
(0.052) (0.051) (0.052) (0.052)
Cohort 2013-2017 -0.470*** -0.393*** -0.385*** -0.477***
(0.052) (0.051) (0.051) (0.053)
% black students in municipality 1.076*** 0.409 0.415 0.073
(0.320) (0.317) (0.317) (0.335)
Average municipal SES 0.126*** 0.168*** 0.168*** 0.212***
(0.033) (0.032) (0.032) (0.033)
Male students -1.347*** -0.532*** -0.523*** -0.153
(0.132) (0.133) (0.133) (0.138)
% Teachers working single school 0.008 0.006 -0.007
(0.011) (0.011) (0.012)
% Teachers w/o university degree 0.083*** 0.084*** 0.018
(0.014) (0.014) (0.016)
Number of schools in municipality -0.00001 -0.0001 0.0001
(0.0002) (0.0002) (0.0003)
% Middle schools state-run -0.218*** -0.203*** -0.192***
(0.029) (0.029) (0.032)
Average school violence index -0.004 -0.003 -0.006
(0.008) (0.008) (0.008)
Average municipal dropout rate 1.398*** 1.404*** 1.154***
(0.068) (0.068) (0.076)
School race segregation index 0.022** 0.020*
(0.008) (0.008)
School social class segregation index -0.545 -0.410 -0.404 -0.429
(0.433) (0.426) (0.425) (0.431)
School race-SES segregation index -1.564*** -1.388*** -1.400*** -1.339**
(0.416) (0.411) (0.411) (0.415)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students -1.825*** -1.723*** -1.732*** -1.435***
(0.418) (0.413) (0.413) (0.420)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students -0.076 -0.073 -0.072 -0.063
(0.043) (0.042) (0.042) (0.043)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students -0.231*** -0.229*** -0.231*** -0.216***
(0.044) (0.043) (0.043) (0.044)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES -0.037 -0.061 -0.060 0.016
(0.041) (0.040) (0.040) (0.044)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES 0.888*** 0.457*** 0.439*** 0.675***
(0.072) (0.077) (0.077) (0.085)
Observations 21,265 21,265 21,265 20,380
R2 0.052 0.084 0.084 0.107
Adjusted R2 0.052 0.083 0.084 0.105
Residual Std. Error 1.174 (df = 21252) 1.154 (df = 21246) 1.154 (df = 21245) 1.163 (df = 20334)
F Statistic 97.422*** (df = 12; 21252) 108.295*** (df = 18; 21246) 103.056*** (df = 19; 21245) 54.071*** (df = 45; 20334)
Note: p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001
state Value-added
AC 0.085
AL -0.345
AM -0.344
AP -0.367
BA -0.200
CE -0.020
DF -0.945
ES -0.264
GO -0.058
MA -0.023
MG -0.480
MS -0.159
MT -0.242
PA -0.422
PB -0.241
PE 0.010
PI -0.204
PR -0.549
RJ -0.593
RN -0.108
RO 0.038
RR -0.003
RS -0.473
SC -0.400
SE -0.017
SP -0.699
TO -0.131



Black students BOTTOM SES

Reading - Black BOTTOM SES
Dependent variable:
base_formula
Model 1 Model 2 Model 2 + Segregation Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013 -0.428*** -0.433*** -0.433*** -0.451***
(0.061) (0.060) (0.060) (0.061)
Cohort 2011-2015 -0.303*** -0.285*** -0.288*** -0.327***
(0.063) (0.062) (0.062) (0.063)
Cohort 2013-2017 -0.455*** -0.392*** -0.394*** -0.432***
(0.062) (0.062) (0.062) (0.063)
% black students in municipality -0.281 -0.570* -0.575* -0.778**
(0.232) (0.229) (0.229) (0.241)
Average municipal SES 0.095*** 0.158*** 0.158*** 0.188***
(0.025) (0.025) (0.025) (0.025)
Male students -1.167*** -0.430*** -0.431*** -0.442***
(0.121) (0.123) (0.123) (0.128)
% Teachers working single school -0.007 -0.007 -0.020*
(0.009) (0.009) (0.009)
% Teachers w/o university degree -0.036*** -0.036*** -0.016
(0.009) (0.009) (0.010)
Number of schools in municipality -0.0003 -0.0002 0.003
(0.0005) (0.0005) (0.002)
% Middle schools state-run -0.365*** -0.367*** -0.279***
(0.029) (0.029) (0.036)
Average school violence index -0.005 -0.005 -0.002
(0.009) (0.009) (0.009)
Average municipal dropout rate 0.965*** 0.968*** 0.994***
(0.054) (0.054) (0.062)
School race segregation index -0.007 -0.011
(0.009) (0.009)
School social class segregation index 0.245 0.215 0.214 0.281
(0.330) (0.326) (0.326) (0.327)
School race-SES segregation index -0.092 -0.109 -0.107 0.010
(0.326) (0.323) (0.323) (0.324)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students 1.074*** 1.035*** 1.038*** 1.133***
(0.316) (0.312) (0.312) (0.313)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students -0.090* -0.098** -0.098** -0.095*
(0.038) (0.038) (0.038) (0.039)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students -0.176*** -0.164*** -0.163*** -0.186***
(0.040) (0.040) (0.040) (0.041)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES -0.201*** -0.171*** -0.171*** -0.195***
(0.040) (0.040) (0.040) (0.042)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES 0.932*** 0.600*** 0.602*** 0.800***
(0.069) (0.075) (0.075) (0.093)
Observations 21,266 21,266 21,266 20,686
R2 0.015 0.042 0.042 0.056
Adjusted R2 0.014 0.041 0.041 0.054
Residual Std. Error 1.196 (df = 21253) 1.180 (df = 21247) 1.180 (df = 21246) 1.182 (df = 20641)
F Statistic 26.802*** (df = 12; 21253) 51.195*** (df = 18; 21247) 48.540*** (df = 19; 21246) 28.069*** (df = 44; 20641)
Note: p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001
state Value-added
AC -0.117
AL -0.044
AM -0.368
AP -0.271
BA -0.093
CE 0.269
ES 0.052
GO 0.155
MA 0.001
MG -0.014
MS 0.200
MT -0.347
PA -0.169
PB -0.181
PE 0.081
PI -0.037
PR -0.279
RJ -0.092
RN 0.062
RO 0.082
RR -0.075
RS -0.374
SC -0.384
SE -0.002
SP -0.263
TO 0.196



Math - Black BOTTOM SES
Dependent variable:
base_formula
Model 1 Model 2 Model 2 + Segregation Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013 -0.618*** -0.628*** -0.628*** -0.649***
(0.058) (0.057) (0.057) (0.058)
Cohort 2011-2015 -0.397*** -0.387*** -0.378*** -0.433***
(0.060) (0.059) (0.059) (0.059)
Cohort 2013-2017 -0.766*** -0.709*** -0.702*** -0.769***
(0.059) (0.058) (0.058) (0.060)
% black students in municipality -0.766*** -1.094*** -1.079*** -1.443***
(0.220) (0.217) (0.217) (0.227)
Average municipal SES 0.154*** 0.227*** 0.227*** 0.288***
(0.023) (0.023) (0.023) (0.024)
Male students -1.010*** -0.202 -0.198 -0.036
(0.115) (0.117) (0.117) (0.120)
% Teachers working single school 0.008 0.007 -0.001
(0.008) (0.008) (0.009)
% Teachers w/o university degree -0.028*** -0.029*** 0.003
(0.008) (0.008) (0.009)
Number of schools in municipality -0.001 -0.001* 0.001
(0.0004) (0.0004) (0.001)
% Middle schools state-run -0.410*** -0.404*** -0.239***
(0.027) (0.028) (0.034)
Average school violence index -0.002 -0.002 0.002
(0.008) (0.008) (0.008)
Average municipal dropout rate 1.001*** 0.994*** 0.902***
(0.052) (0.052) (0.058)
School race segregation index 0.022** 0.021*
(0.008) (0.008)
School social class segregation index 0.578 0.538 0.540 0.629*
(0.314) (0.309) (0.309) (0.308)
School race-SES segregation index 0.002 -0.021 -0.029 0.122
(0.310) (0.305) (0.305) (0.305)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students 1.104*** 1.048*** 1.041*** 1.149***
(0.300) (0.295) (0.295) (0.295)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students -0.118** -0.131*** -0.132*** -0.124***
(0.036) (0.036) (0.036) (0.036)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students -0.200*** -0.183*** -0.184*** -0.203***
(0.038) (0.038) (0.038) (0.039)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES -0.311*** -0.275*** -0.277*** -0.311***
(0.038) (0.038) (0.038) (0.039)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES 1.146*** 0.812*** 0.805*** 0.878***
(0.066) (0.071) (0.071) (0.087)
Observations 21,266 21,266 21,266 20,686
R2 0.027 0.063 0.063 0.089
Adjusted R2 0.027 0.062 0.062 0.087
Residual Std. Error 1.138 (df = 21253) 1.117 (df = 21247) 1.117 (df = 21246) 1.112 (df = 20641)
F Statistic 49.760*** (df = 12; 21253) 78.697*** (df = 18; 21247) 74.974*** (df = 19; 21246) 45.642*** (df = 44; 20641)
Note: p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001
state Value-added
AC 0.288
AL 0.303
AM -0.366
AP -0.052
BA 0.117
CE 0.492
ES 0.157
GO 0.232
MA 0.078
MG 0.102
MS 0.148
MT -0.169
PA -0.047
PB 0.133
PE 0.294
PI 0.313
PR -0.182
RJ 0.219
RN 0.295
RO 0.278
RR -0.070
RS -0.174
SC -0.189
SE 0.325
SP -0.459
TO 0.465



Municipality and State Analysis

White students TOP SES

## Warning: `aes_string()` was deprecated in ggplot2 3.0.0.
## ℹ Please use tidy evaluation idioms with `aes()`.
## ℹ See also `vignette("ggplot2-in-packages")` for more information.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# A tibble: 21,353 × 25 COD_MUNICIPIO COHORT Uf Id Nome LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 1 5100250 2007-2… MT 5185 Alta… 189. 248. 2 5100201 2007-2… MT 5184 Água… 173. 262. 3 5101001 2007-2… MT 5192 Arag… 152. 230. 4 5101803 2007-2… MT 5199 Barr… 176. 245. 5 5102702 2007-2… MT 5208 Cana… 172. 244. 6 5103106 2007-2… MT 5213 Coca… 197. 245. 7 5103908 2007-2… MT 5228 Gene… 195. 212. 8 5106174 2007-2… MT 5255 Nova… 147. 246. 9 5106257 2007-2… MT 5263 Nova… 177. 250. 10 5106653 2007-2… MT 5274 Pont… 160. 228. # ℹ 21,343 more rows # ℹ 18 more variables: MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL , # MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL , GANHO_LEITURA , GANHO_MATEMATICA , # NSE_AVG , RACA_PRETO , SEXO_M , DROP_OUT_RATE , # NUM_SCHOOLS , proportion_estadual , avg_index_violence , # ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 , afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 , # kl_raca , kl_NSE , kl_raca_ses , leitura_gain , …

White students BOTTOM SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# A tibble: 21,655 × 25 COD_MUNICIPIO COHORT Uf Id Nome LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 1 2300200 2007-2… CE 894 Acar… 154. 235. 2 2302305 2007-2… CE 920 Bela… 154. 236. 3 2304251 2007-2… CE 944 Cruz 188. 242. 4 2306553 2007-2… CE 981 Itar… 156. 230. 5 2307254 2007-2… CE 989 Jijo… 171. 259. 6 2307809 2007-2… CE 997 Marco 145. 214. 7 2308906 2007-2… CE 1010 Morr… 149. 227. 8 2300150 2007-2… CE 893 Acar… 154. 223. 9 2301208 2007-2… CE 905 Arac… 141. 223. 10 2301406 2007-2… CE 908 Arat… 150. 233. # ℹ 21,645 more rows # ℹ 18 more variables: MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL , # MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL , GANHO_LEITURA , GANHO_MATEMATICA , # NSE_AVG , RACA_PRETO , SEXO_M , DROP_OUT_RATE , # NUM_SCHOOLS , proportion_estadual , avg_index_violence , # ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 , afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 , # kl_raca , kl_NSE , kl_raca_ses , leitura_gain , …

Black/Brown students TOP SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# A tibble: 10,823 × 25 COD_MUNICIPIO COHORT Uf Id Nome LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 1 1100015 2011-2… RO 1 Alta… 167. 244. 2 1100015 2013-2… RO 1 Alta… 211. 253. 3 1100023 2007-2… RO 2 Ariq… 170. 236. 4 1100023 2009-2… RO 2 Ariq… 180. 246. 5 1100023 2011-2… RO 2 Ariq… 185. 261. 6 1100023 2013-2… RO 2 Ariq… 194. 264. 7 1100031 2007-2… RO 3 Cabi… 169. 239. 8 1100031 2009-2… RO 3 Cabi… 176. 241. 9 1100031 2011-2… RO 3 Cabi… 188. 250. 10 1100031 2013-2… RO 3 Cabi… 208. 265. # ℹ 10,813 more rows # ℹ 18 more variables: MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL , # MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL , GANHO_LEITURA , GANHO_MATEMATICA , # NSE_AVG , RACA_PRETO , SEXO_M , DROP_OUT_RATE , # NUM_SCHOOLS , proportion_estadual , avg_index_violence , # ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 , afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 , # kl_raca , kl_NSE , kl_raca_ses , leitura_gain , …

Black/Brown students BOTTOM SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# A tibble: 10,841 × 25 COD_MUNICIPIO COHORT Uf Id Nome LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 1 1100015 2007-2… RO 1 Alta… 168. 219. 2 1100015 2009-2… RO 1 Alta… 179. 234. 3 1100072 2007-2… RO 7 Coru… 176. 250. 4 1100072 2011-2… RO 7 Coru… 171. 254. 5 1100072 2013-2… RO 7 Coru… 186. 249. 6 1100080 2007-2… RO 8 Cost… 152. 232. 7 1100080 2009-2… RO 8 Cost… 167. 219. 8 1100098 2007-2… RO 9 Espi… 179. 244. 9 1100130 2007-2… RO 13 Mach… 171. 234. 10 1100130 2009-2… RO 13 Mach… 176. 238. # ℹ 10,831 more rows # ℹ 18 more variables: MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL , # MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL , GANHO_LEITURA , GANHO_MATEMATICA , # NSE_AVG , RACA_PRETO , SEXO_M , DROP_OUT_RATE , # NUM_SCHOOLS , proportion_estadual , avg_index_violence , # ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 , afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 , # kl_raca , kl_NSE , kl_raca_ses , leitura_gain , …

Black students TOP SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# A tibble: 20,380 × 25 COD_MUNICIPIO COHORT Uf Id Nome LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 1 2301802 2007-2… CE 912 Baix… 153. 194. 2 2303808 2007-2… CE 936 Cedro 145. 232. 3 2305704 2007-2… CE 971 Ipau… 146. 246. 4 2304269 2007-2… CE 945 Depu… 157. 274. 5 5100250 2007-2… MT 5185 Alta… 171. 235. 6 5100805 2007-2… MT 5191 Apia… 156. 232. 7 5102793 2007-2… MT 5209 Carl… 168. 243. 8 5106158 2007-2… MT 5254 Nova… 151. 222. 9 5106216 2007-2… MT 5259 Nova… 160. 243. 10 5100201 2007-2… MT 5184 Água… 168. 245. # ℹ 20,370 more rows # ℹ 18 more variables: MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL , # MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL , GANHO_LEITURA , GANHO_MATEMATICA , # NSE_AVG , RACA_PRETO , SEXO_M , DROP_OUT_RATE , # NUM_SCHOOLS , proportion_estadual , avg_index_violence , # ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 , afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 , # kl_raca , kl_NSE , kl_raca_ses , leitura_gain , …

Black students BOTTOM SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# A tibble: 20,686 × 25 COD_MUNICIPIO COHORT Uf Id Nome LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 1 2300200 2007-2… CE 894 Acar… 150. 221. 2 2302305 2007-2… CE 920 Bela… 144. 209. 3 2304251 2007-2… CE 944 Cruz 124. 212. 4 2306553 2007-2… CE 981 Itar… 154. 211. 5 2307254 2007-2… CE 989 Jijo… 154. 264. 6 2307809 2007-2… CE 997 Marco 147. 207. 7 2308906 2007-2… CE 1010 Morr… 134. 216. 8 2300150 2007-2… CE 893 Acar… 155. 191. 9 2301208 2007-2… CE 905 Arac… 130. 215. 10 2301406 2007-2… CE 908 Arat… 165. 228. # ℹ 20,676 more rows # ℹ 18 more variables: MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL , # MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL , GANHO_LEITURA , GANHO_MATEMATICA , # NSE_AVG , RACA_PRETO , SEXO_M , DROP_OUT_RATE , # NUM_SCHOOLS , proportion_estadual , avg_index_violence , # ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 , afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 , # kl_raca , kl_NSE , kl_raca_ses , leitura_gain , …