Do the Oscars Change Public Perception?

Lights, Camera, Action

Every year, the Oscars crown one film as the “best” of the year, but does winning actually change how people feel about a movie? It feels reasonable to assume that once a film wins, people might view it more positively, or at least reconsider their opinions. But audience opinions might already be set long before the awards are handed out.

At first, I set out to test that idea simply by comparing IMDb ratings from before the Oscars to ratings immediately after the ceremony. If the Oscars had a strong influence on public perception, there should be some noticeable shift, especially for the winning film.

library(dplyr)
library(knitr)
library(kableExtra)
clean_data %>%
  mutate(Change = `March 24` - `Day Of`) %>%
  select(
    Movie = primaryTitle,
    `Before (Mar 15)` = `Day Of`,
    `After (Mar 24)` = `March 24`,
    Change
  ) %>%
  kable(caption = "How Ratings Changed After the Oscars") %>%
  kable_styling(
    bootstrap_options = c("striped", "hover"),
    full_width = FALSE
  )

#| message: false
#| warning: false

The Immediate Aftermath

Looking at ratings from before the Oscars and just a few days after, there was surprisingly little movement. In the nine days that had passed, only one movie, The Secret Agent, had a change in rating greater than .1. Even the winner, One Battle After Another, showed no change in rating. So far, it looked like the Oscars had almost no visible effect on IMDB ratings. But I wasn’t ready to give up just yet.

At that point, it would have been easy to conclude that the Oscars had no effect, but that felt too quick. It is possible that audience perception takes time to adjust. People might not immediately rush to re-rate a film, and broader shifts in opinion could take longer to appear. After all, the acclaim that comes with winning Best Picture does not just die down after a week and some change. That status stays with it forever. Nine days may have just not been long enough.

Waiting for the Effect

Because of that, I expanded the analysis. Instead of only looking at ratings immediately after the Oscars, I tracked ratings across multiple dates, extending the window further out to see if any delayed changes would emerge.

This allowed for a clearer picture. If the Oscars truly influenced public perception, the effect might show up gradually rather than instantly.

To my surprise yet again, there was very little change. This time three more movies had a .1 decrease in ratings.

Still No Real Change

Even with more time and more data, the pattern remained the same. Ratings across all films stayed remarkably stable. While there were small fluctuations, they were inconsistent and minimal, nothing that suggested a meaningful shift in how audiences felt about the movies.

Films nominated for Best Picture in 2026

The overall changes from before the Oscars to several weeks after were extremely small, often only a few hundredths of a point. These differences are so minor that they are unlikely to reflect any real change in perception.

What This Suggests

Taken together, the results suggest that the Oscars do not significantly alter how audiences rate films, at least not in any immediate or measurable way. Instead of changing opinions, the awards seem to reinforce views that audiences have already formed.

By the time the Oscars take place, most viewers who care enough to rate a film likely already have a clear opinion. Winning an award may increase visibility or prestige, but it does not appear to meaningfully shift audience scores.

A Different Kind of Effect

While the Oscars did not appear to meaningfully shift scores, they did seem to affect something else. When looking at how many people rated each film over time, a different pattern emerged. The Best Picture winner consistently saw the largest increase in total ratings compared to the other nominees.

One Battle After Another winning Best Picture on Hollywood’s biggest night

In other words, while people were not dramatically changing how they rated the film, more people were choosing to watch and rate it after the Oscars. This suggests that the awards may not influence how audiences feel about a movie, but they do influence how many people engage with it.

titles <- read_tsv("title.basics.tsv")
ratings_dayof <- read_tsv("ratings_dayof.tsv")
ratings_0324 <- read_tsv("ratings_2026_03_24.tsv")
ratings_0327 <- read_tsv("ratings_2026_03_27.tsv")
ratings_0407 <- read_tsv("ratings_2026_04_07.tsv")

ratings_dayof <- ratings_dayof %>%
  rename(avg_dayof = averageRating, votes_dayof = numVotes)

ratings_0324 <- ratings_0324 %>%
  rename(avg_0324 = averageRating, votes_0324 = numVotes)

ratings_0327 <- ratings_0327 %>%
  rename(avg_0327 = averageRating, votes_0327 = numVotes)

ratings_0407 <- ratings_0407 %>%
  rename(avg_0407 = averageRating, votes_0407 = numVotes)

ratings_all <- ratings_dayof %>%
  full_join(ratings_0324, by = "tconst") %>%
  full_join(ratings_0327, by = "tconst") %>%
  full_join(ratings_0407, by = "tconst")

movies <- titles %>%
  filter(titleType == "movie")

final_data <- movies %>%
  inner_join(ratings_all, by = "tconst")

movies_2025 <- final_data %>%
  filter(startYear == "2025")

Final Credits

Taken together, the results suggest that the Oscars do not significantly alter how audiences rate films, at least not in any immediate or measurable way. Instead of changing opinions, the awards seem to reinforce views that audiences have already formed.

However, the Oscars still matter in a different way. Rather than changing opinions, they appear to amplify attention, drawing more viewers toward the winning film. In the end, the Oscars may shape what people choose to watch, but not necessarily how they feel about it.