Leading indicator of economic health, reflecting business and consumer confidence in making long-term investments.

Provides a comprehensive view of total demand across the entire manufacturing sector, including durable and non-durable goods.

A closely watched proxy for business investment plans, as it strips out volatile defense and transportation orders.

Manufacturers’ New Orders: Total Manufacturing (AMTMNO)

Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods (DGORDER)

2025 December Metric Value Change Details

  • Total Durable Goods Orders $319.9 billion -1.4% month-over-month A decrease of $4.3 billion from November’s revised total .
  • Key Driver of Decline Transportation Equipment -5.4% A significant drop in this large category was the primary cause of the overall decrease .
  • Nondefense Aircraft & Parts $26.7 billion -24.8% This volatile sub-sector within transportation equipment saw a sharp monthly decline.
  • Non-durable Goods Orders $297.6 billion Virtually unchanged Unlike durable goods, orders for non-durable items like food and fuel remained stable.

Manufacturers’ New Orders: Consumer Goods (ACOGNO)

The ACOGNO series represents manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods, which are products purchased by individuals for personal or household use . According to the Federal Reserve’s notes, this series is a “topical regrouping of the separate industry categories” —meaning it aggregates data from various manufacturing industries that produce consumer-facing products rather than following standard industry classification boundaries

Manufacturers’ Total Inventories: Durable Goods (AMDMTI)

1. 🏭 Indicator of Business Confidence and Future Production

Inventory levels reveal how manufacturers expect demand to behave in the near future:

  • Rising Inventories (Accumulation): When businesses increase their stockpiles of durable goods (like machinery, steel, or electronics components), it typically signals optimism. They are building up supply in anticipation that customers will place orders soon. This suggests expected economic expansion .

  • Falling Inventories (Liquidation): When manufacturers allow inventories to shrink, it often indicates caution. They may be drawing down existing stock rather than producing new goods because they are uncertain about future demand, which can be a warning sign of a slowing economy .

2. 📉 Predictor of Economic Turning Points (The Inventory Cycle)

  • Inventories are a core component of the business cycle. Changes in AMDMTI can signal recessions or recoveries before other indicators do:

  • Involuntary Accumulation (A Warning Sign): If new orders (DGORDER) are falling but inventories (AMDMTI) are still rising, it means goods are piling up because sales are slower than expected. This “involuntary inventory build” often forces manufacturers to cut production and reduce hours, which can tip the economy into a downturn .

  • Inventory Liquidation (The Trough): Conversely, when inventories have been drawn down to very low levels (relative to sales), it creates a “restocking” imperative. Even a small uptick in demand forces factories to ramp up production, fueling economic recovery .

3. 📊 Input for the “Inventories-to-Shipments Ratio” (I/S Ratio)

  • While AMDMTI is useful on its own, its real power comes from comparing it to sales data. The Federal Reserve uses AMDMTI to calculate the Inventories-to-Shipments Ratio (AMDMIS) , which measures how many months it would take to deplete current inventory at the current sales pace.

  • A High I/S Ratio (Risk): If durable goods inventories are high relative to shipments, it suggests overstock. Companies may be forced to offer discounts (cutting into profits) or slash production (leading to layoffs) to clear the excess .

  • A Low I/S Ratio (Opportunity): If inventories are lean relative to shipments, it indicates efficiency and strong demand. However, if the ratio gets too low, it risks supply chain bottlenecks and lost sales due to stockouts .