Opinion poll trends for the 2026 New Zealand General Election
Analysis to 22 March 2026
Dr Lindsay R Morris
Based on opinion poll modelling to 22 March 2026, the current National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition government is more likely than the Labour–The Greens–Te Pāti Māori bloc to command a parliamentary majority.
This short report provides key facts and figures based on opinion poll data analysed for the six political parties currently in Parliament ahead of the 2026 New Zealand General Election (to be held on 7 November 2026). The reported estimates reflect modelled trends in polling data and should be interpreted as indicative of current public opinion rather than forecasts of the final election result.
The six political parties currently in Parliament are:
- The New Zealand National Party (National) with 48 seats
- The New Zealand Labour Party (Labour) with 34 seats
- The Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand (The Greens) with 15 seats
- ACT New Zealand (ACT) with 11 seats
- New Zealand First with 8 seats
- Te Pāti Māori with 6 seats
Currently, National, ACT, and New Zealand First govern as a coalition government, and are generally considered to be on the centre-right of the political spectrum. Labour, The Greens, and Te Pāti Māori are generally considered to be on the centre-left of the political spectrum.
Polling organisations
Opinion polling data is collected by six polling organisations at different frequencies. Since 6 November 2023:
- the most recent poll was published by Roy Morgan on 22 March 2026
- the most frequent polling organisation is Roy Morgan, who publish
polls with a median frequency of 28 days
- the least frequent polling organisation is The Post–Freshwater Strategy, who publish polls with a median frequency of 89 days.
Polling organisations that conduct surveys more frequently can detect shifts in public opinion sooner than those that poll less often. This helps identify emerging trends, short-term fluctuations, and changes in voter sentiment between elections. Less frequent polling may miss these rapid changes, making trend estimates less responsive.
| Polling organisation | Most recent poll | Polls | Median frequency | Next poll † |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Morgan | 22 March 2026 | 29 | 28.0 days | 26 April 2026 |
| RNZ–Reid Research | 20 March 2026 | 5 | 84.5 days | – |
| Talbot Mills | 12 March 2026 | 16 | 42.0 days | 28 May 2026 |
| Taxpayers’ Union–Curia | 03 March 2026 | 28 | 30.0 days | 05 April 2026 |
| The Post–Freshwater Strategy | 12 February 2026 | 5 | 89.5 days | – |
| 1 News–Verian | 11 February 2026 | 13 | 56.0 days | 22 April 2026 |
| † Next poll date is estimated based on the upper bound of a 95% confidence interval for the median days between polls, using historical polling frequency. Currently, there are not enough published polls to estimate when the next RNZ–Reid Research or The Post–Freshwater Strategy polls will be published. |
Percent support
Based on opinion poll modelling as of 22 March 2026, estimated percent support for Labour is:
- 34.9 (± 1.08) percent, the highest of any political party
- unchanged since 20 March 2026, when the last poll was published
- up by 8 points since the 2023 election, where they achieved 26.92 percent of the party vote
- almost certainly increasing at an estimated rate of 0.34 percentage points per month.
Estimated percent support for National is:
- 30.7 (± 1) percent, 4.3 percentage points behind Labour
- unchanged since 20 March 2026, when the last poll was published
- down by 7.4 points since the 2023 election, where they achieved 38.08 percent of the party vote
- almost certainly decreasing at an estimated rate of 0.26 percentage points per month.
For New Zealand First, estimated percent support is:
- 10.7 (± 0.83) percent, 0.42 percentage points ahead of The Greens
- unchanged since 20 March 2026, when the last poll was published
- up by 4.6 points since the 2023 election, where they achieved 6.09 percent of the party vote
- almost certainly increasing at an estimated rate of 0.16 percentage points per month.
For The Greens, estimated percent support is:
- 10.3 (± 0.64) percent, unchanged since 20 March 2026, when the last poll was published
- down by 1.3 points since the 2023 election, where they achieved 11.61 percent of the party vote
- almost certainly decreasing at an estimated rate of 0.11 percentage points per month.
Estimated percent support for ACT is:
- 7.7 (± 0.77) percent, 2.61 percentage points behind The Greens
- unchanged since 20 March 2026, when the last poll was published
- down by 0.9 points since the 2023 election, where they achieved 8.64 percent of the party vote
- extremely likely decreasing at an estimated rate of 0.07 percentage points per month.
Finally, for Te Pāti Māori, estimated percent support is:
- 2.4 (± 0.54) percent, unchanged since 20 March 2026, when the last poll was published
- down by 0.7 points since the 2023 election, where they achieved 3.08 percent of the party vote
- very likely decreasing at an estimated rate of 0.04 percentage points per month.
Values in brackets represent the model’s margin of uncertainty around the estimated level of support.
Seats in Parliament
Based on 10,000 simulations of opinion poll trends as of 22 March 2026:
- Labour is expected to win around 43 seats in Parliament on average, with most simulations projecting between 39 and 48 seats.
- National is expected to win around 38 seats in Parliament on average, with most simulations projecting between 34 and 42 seats.
- New Zealand First is expected to win around 13 seats in Parliament on average, with most simulations projecting between 11 and 16 seats.
- The Greens is expected to win around 13 seats in Parliament on average, with most simulations projecting between 10 and 16 seats.
- ACT is expected to win around 9 seats in Parliament on average, with most simulations projecting between 7 and 12 seats.
- Te Pāti Māori is expected to win around 3 seats in Parliament on average, with most simulations projecting between 1 and 5 seats.
| Party | Estimated seats in Parliament | Seats in Parliament in 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 43 (\(\uparrow\) by 9) | 34 |
| National | 38 (\(\downarrow\) by 10) | 48 |
| New Zealand First | 13 (\(\uparrow\) by 5) | 8 |
| The Greens | 13 (\(\downarrow\) by 2) | 15 |
| ACT | 9 (\(\downarrow\) by 2) | 11 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 3 (\(\downarrow\) by 3) | 6 |
Based on these numbers, parliament could look like the following:
In 54.6 percent of 10,000 simulations, National, ACT, and New Zealand First collectively hold a majority of seats. In 31 percent of simulations, Labour, The Greens, and Te Pāti Māori collectively hold a majority of seats. The remaining 14.4 percent of simulations result in a hung parliament.
Seat allocations assume that each party retains at least one electorate seat it won in the 2023 election, allowing it to remain represented in Parliament even if its party vote falls below 5 percent. Because seat estimates are reported separately for each party and then rounded to whole numbers, their totals may not sum exactly to 120.
Preferred Prime Minister
Based on opinion poll modelling as of 20 March 2026, estimated percent support for Chris Hipkins is:
- 21.7 (± 1.51) percent, the highest of any political party leader
- unchanged since 12 March 2026, when the last poll was published
- very likely increasing at an estimated rate of 0.16 percentage points per month.
Estimated percent support for Christopher Luxon is:
- 20 (± 1.92) percent, 1.7 percentage points behind Chris Hipkins
- down by 0.1 points since 12 March 2026, when the last poll was published
- almost certainly decreasing at an estimated rate of 0.34 percentage points per month.
For Winston Peters, estimated percent support is:
- 11.4 (± 1.04) percent, 5.39 percentage points ahead of Chloe Swarbrick
- up by 0.1 points since 12 March 2026, when the last poll was published
- almost certainly increasing at an estimated rate of 0.28 percentage points per month.
For Chloe Swarbrick, estimated percent support is:
- 6 (± 0.84) percent, down by 0.1 points since 20 March 2026, when the last poll was published
- not significantly changing.
Finally, estimated percent support for David Seymour is:
- 5.8 (± 0.78) percent, 0.27 percentage points behind Chloe Swarbrick
- unchanged since 12 March 2026, when the last poll was published
- not significantly changing.
Preferred Prime Minister results were analysed across five of six polling organisations despite minor differences in question wording. Opinion polls published by The Post–Freshwater Strategy were excluded because they only allow respondents to choose between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon, inflating their percent support.
Trend methodology
Mann-Kendall trend tests and Theil-Sen slope estimates are used to assess overall trend likelihood and estimate the rate of change. Trend likelihoods are reported using terminology that reflects the statistical certainty of observed trends. Classifications are as follows:
- likely when the probability of an increasing or decreasing trend is above 90 percent
- very likely when the probability is above 95 percent
- extremely likely when the probability is above 99 percent
- almost certainly when the probability is above 99.9 percent
- not significant when no trend direction can be determined or the probability is 90 percent or less.
Generalised additive models (GAMs) were used to estimate underlying trends in party support over time. GAMs allow trends to change smoothly over time rather than assuming a straight-line increase or decrease. Models were fitted using a beta distribution, which is appropriate for percentages because it constrains estimates to the 0–100% range. Smooth functions of time were specified using thin plate regression splines, with the basis dimension (k) set to 0.8 times the number of polls to allow sufficient flexibility while reducing the risk of overfitting. Smoothing parameters were estimated using restricted maximum likelihood (REML).
Disclaimer
This report is based on opinion polls and modelled estimates as of 22 March 2026. Opinion polls are subject to sampling error, methodological differences, and changes in public sentiment over time. Late campaign effects, voter turnout, and electorate-level dynamics are not explicitly modelled. Estimates of percent support, seats in Parliament, and preferred Prime Minister are not predictions of the actual election outcome and may differ from the results on 7 November 2026. Readers should interpret these figures as indicative trends rather than definitive forecasts.
The author is independent and does not endorse or favour any political party or candidate. The analysis is based solely on publicly available opinion poll data as of 22 March 2026 and is intended for informational purposes only.
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