Opinion poll trends for the 2026 New Zealand General Election
Analysis to 10 May 2026
Dr Lindsay R Morris
Based on opinion poll modelling to 10 May 2026, the current National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition government is more likely than the Labour–The Greens–Te Pāti Māori bloc to command a parliamentary majority.
This short report provides key facts and figures based on opinion poll data analysed for the six political parties currently in Parliament ahead of the 2026 New Zealand General Election (to be held on 7 November 2026). The reported estimates reflect modelled trends in polling data and should be interpreted as indicative of current public opinion rather than forecasts of the final election result.
The seven political parties currently in Parliament are:
- The New Zealand National Party (National) with 48 seats
- The New Zealand Labour Party (Labour) with 34 seats
- The Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand (The Greens) with 15 seats
- ACT New Zealand (ACT) with 11 seats
- New Zealand First with 8 seats
- Te Pāti Māori with 5 seats.
There is one independent MP in the current Parliament.
Currently, National, ACT, and New Zealand First govern as a coalition government, and are generally considered to be on the centre-right of the political spectrum. Labour, The Greens, and Te Pāti Māori are generally considered to be on the centre-left of the political spectrum.
Polling organisations
Opinion polling data is collected by six polling organisations at different frequencies. Since 6 November 2023:
- the most recent poll was published by Talbot Mills on 10 May 2026
- the next poll is estimated to be published by Roy Morgan before 31 May 2026
- the most frequent polling organisation is
Roy Morgan, who publish polls with a median frequency
of 28 days
- the least frequent polling organisation is The Post–Freshwater Strategy, who publish polls with a median frequency of 89 days.
Polling organisations that conduct surveys more frequently can detect shifts in public opinion sooner than those that poll less often. This helps identify emerging trends, short-term fluctuations, and changes in voter sentiment between elections. Less frequent polling may miss these rapid changes, making trend estimates less responsive.
| Polling organisation | Most recent poll | Polls | Median frequency | Next poll † |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talbot Mills | 10 May 2026 | 18 | 35.0 days | 10 July 2026 |
| Taxpayers’ Union–Curia | 7 May 2026 | 30 | 30.0 days | 9 June 2026 |
| Roy Morgan | 26 April 2026 | 30 | 28.0 days | 31 May 2026 |
| 1 News–Verian | 15 April 2026 | 14 | 56.0 days | 24 June 2026 |
| RNZ–Reid Research | 20 March 2026 | 5 | 84.5 days | – |
| The Post–Freshwater Strategy | 12 February 2026 | 5 | 89.5 days | – |
| † Next poll date is estimated based on the upper bound of a 95% confidence interval for the median days between polls, using historical polling frequency. Currently, there are not enough published polls to estimate when the next RNZ–Reid Research or The Post–Freshwater Strategy polls will be published. |
Percent support as of 10 May 2026
Note: Values in brackets represent the model’s margin of uncertainty around the estimated level of support.
Labour
Estimated percent support is:
- 35.4% (± 1.04) – the highest support of any party
- up 0.3 points since 15 April 2026 (about one month ago)
- up 8.5 points from the 2023 election (26.92%)
- almost certainly increasing, at an estimated rate of 0.33 points per month.
National
Estimated percent support is:
- 29.7% (± 0.84) – 5.7 points behind Labour
- down 0.2 points since 15 April 2026
- down 8.4 points from the 2023 election (38.08%)
- almost certainly decreasing, at an estimated rate of 0.27 points per month.
New Zealand First
Estimated percent support is:
- 12.2% (± 0.95) – 2.3 points ahead of The Greens
- up 0.4 points since 15 April 2026
- up 6.1 points from the 2023 election (6.09%)
- almost certainly increasing, at an estimated rate of 0.18 points per month.
The Greens
Estimated percent support is:
- 9.9% (± 0.61) – 2.3 points ahead of ACT
- down 0.1 points since 15 April 2026
- down 1.7 points from the 2023 election (11.61%)
- almost certainly decreasing, at an estimated rate of 0.12 points per month.
ACT
Estimated percent support is:
- 7.7% (± 0.75)
- unchanged since 15 April 2026
- down 0.9 points from the 2023 election (8.64%)
- extremely likely decreasing, at an estimated rate of 0.07 points per month.
TOP
Estimated percent support is:
- 2.8% (± 0.74)
- up 0.2 points since 15 April 2026
- up 0.6 points from the 2023 election (2.22%)
- not significantly changing.
Te Pāti Māori
Estimated percent support is:
- 2.4% (± 0.55)
- down 0.1 points since 15 April 2026
- down 0.7 points from the 2023 election (3.08%)
- extremely likely decreasing, at an estimated rate of 0.04 points per month.
Text alternative for Estimated percent support by political party
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Seats in Parliament as of 10 May 2026
Estimated seats in Parliament are based on 30,000 simulations of opinion poll trends as of 10 May 2026.
Labour
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 44 with most simulations projecting between 39 and 48 seats
- unchanged since 15 April 2026 (about one month ago)
- up 10 seats from the 2023 election (34 seats).
National
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 37 with most simulations projecting between 33 and 40 seats
- unchanged since 15 April 2026 (about one month ago)
- down 11 seats from the 2023 election (48 seats).
New Zealand First
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 15 with most simulations projecting between 12 and 18 seats
- unchanged since 15 April 2026 (about one month ago)
- up 7 seats from the 2023 election (8 seats).
The Greens
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 12 with most simulations projecting between 9 and 16 seats
- unchanged since 15 April 2026 (about one month ago)
- down 3 seats from the 2023 election (15 seats).
ACT
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 9 with most simulations projecting between 7 and 12 seats
- unchanged since 15 April 2026 (about one month ago)
- down 2 seats from the 2023 election (11 seats).
Te Pāti Māori
Estimated seats in Parliament are:
- 3 with most simulations projecting between 1 and 5 seats
- unchanged since 15 April 2026 (about one month ago)
- down 3 seats from the 2023 election (6 seats).
In 57.5 percent of 30,000 simulations, National, ACT, and New Zealand First collectively hold a majority of seats. In 29.2 percent of simulations, Labour, The Greens, and Te Pāti Māori collectively hold a majority of seats. The remaining 13.3 percent of simulations result in a hung parliament.
Text alternative for Estimated seats in Parliament by political party
Based on these numbers, parliament could look like the following:
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Seat allocations assume that each party retains at least one electorate seat it won in the 2023 election, allowing it to remain represented in Parliament even if its party vote falls below 5 percent. Because seat estimates are reported separately for each party and then rounded to whole numbers, their totals may not sum exactly to 120.
Preferred Prime Minister as of 10 May 2026
Chris Hipkins
Estimated percent support is:
- 21.7% (± 1.39) – the highest of any party leader
- up by 0.1 points since 15 April 2026 (about one month ago)
- very likely increasing at an estimated rate of 0.14 points per month.
Christopher Luxon
Estimated percent support is:
- 19.6% (± 1.8) – 2.1 points behind Chris Hipkins
- down by 0.2 points since 15 April 2026
- almost certainly decreasing at an estimated rate of 0.31 points per month.
Winston Peters
Estimated percent support is:
- 13.1% (± 1.27) – 6.64 points ahead of Chlöe Swarbrick
- up by 0.4 points since 15 April 2026
- almost certainly increasing at an estimated rate of 0.3 points per month.
Chlöe Swarbrick
Estimated percent support is:
- 6.5% (± 0.86) – 0.86 points ahead of David Seymour
- unchanged since 15 April 2026
- not significantly changing.
David Seymour
Estimated percent support is:
- 5.6% (± 0.71)
- unchanged since 15 April 2026
- not significantly changing.
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Preferred Prime Minister results were analysed across five of six polling organisations despite minor differences in question wording. Opinion polls published by The Post–Freshwater Strategy were excluded because they only allow respondents to choose between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon, inflating their percent support.
Trend methodology
Generalised additive models (GAMs) were used to estimate underlying trends in party percent support over time. GAMs allow trends to change smoothly over time rather than assuming a straight-line increase or decrease. Models were fitted using a beta distribution, which is appropriate for percentages because it constrains estimates to the 0–100% range. Smooth functions of time were specified using thin plate regression splines, with the basis dimension (k) set to 0.8 times the number of polls to allow sufficient flexibility while reducing the risk of overfitting. Smoothing parameters were estimated using restricted maximum likelihood (REML).
Mann-Kendall trend tests and Theil-Sen slope estimates are used to assess the overall trend likelihood and to estimate the linear rate of change. Trend likelihoods are reported using terminology that reflects the statistical certainty of observed trends. Classifications are as follows:
- likely when the probability of an increasing or decreasing trend is above 90 percent
- very likely when the probability is above 95 percent
- extremely likely when the probability is above 99 percent
- almost certainly when the probability is above 99.9 percent
- not significant when no trend direction can be determined or the probability is 90 percent or less.
Interactive dashboard
Opinion polls and trends at 10 May 2026 provides a snapshot of the data behind this report.
Text alternatives
Text alternative for Estimated percent support by political party
A bar chart shows the estimated percent support by political party. Each bar is coloured to indicate political party: red (Labour), blue (National), black (New Zealand First), green (The Greens), magenta (ACT), teal (TOP), and maroon (Te Pāti Māori). From left to right, estimated percent support is 35.4% for Labour, 29.7% for National, 12.2% for New Zealand First, 9.9% for The Greens, 7.7% for ACT, 2.8% for TOP, and 2.4% for Te Pāti Māori. Error bars show 95% credible intervals. Estimated percent support is calculated from opinion poll data using generalised additive models between 6 November 2023 and 10 May 2026.
Text alternative for Percent support by political party over time
A scatter plot with trend lines show percent support by political party based on opinion polls for the 2026 New Zealand General Election between 6 November 2023 and 10 May 2026. Points represent percent support from opinion polls and lines represent estimated percent support calculated using generalised additive models. Each point and line is coloured to indicate political party: red (Labour), blue (National), black (New Zealand First), green (The Greens), magenta (ACT), teal (TOP), and maroon (Te Pāti Māori). Generally, estimated percent support is almost certainly increasing for Labour, almost certainly decreasing for National, almost certainly increasing for New Zealand First, almost certainly decreasing for The Greens, extremely likely decreasing for ACT, not significant for TOP, and extremely likely decreasing for Te Pāti Māori.
Text alternative for Estimated seats in Parliament by political party
A bar chart shows the estimated number of seats in Parliament by political party. Each bar is coloured to indicate political party: red (Labour), blue (National), black (New Zealand First), green (The Greens), magenta (ACT), teal (TOP), and maroon (Te Pāti Māori). From left to right, estimated seats are 44 for Labour, 37 for National, 15 for New Zealand First, 12 for The Greens, 9 for ACT, 3 for Te Pāti Māori, and 0 for TOP. Error bars show 95% credible intervals. Estimated seats are based on simulations of estimated percent support calculated from opinion poll data using generalised additive models between 6 November 2023 and 10 May 2026.
Text alternative for Modelled seats in Parliament by coalition
An election apportionment diagram shows the estimated number of seats in Parliament by political party. Each circle is coloured to indicate political party: red (Labour), blue (National), black (New Zealand First), green (The Greens), magenta (ACT), teal (TOP), and maroon (Te Pāti Māori). Clockwise from bottom left to bottom right, estimated seats are 3 for Te Pāti Māori, 12 for The Greens, 44 for Labour, 37 for National, 15 for New Zealand First, 9 for ACT, and 0 for TOP. Estimated seats are based on simulations of estimated percent support calculated from opinion poll data using generalised additive models between 6 November 2023 and 10 May 2026.
Text alternative for Percentage of each simulated governing majority by coalition
A bar chart shows the percentage of each simulated governing majority in Parliament. Each bar is coloured to indicate governing majority in parliament: red (Labour–The Greens–Te Pāti Māori, indicated by “CL”) grey (hung parliament, indicated by “EVEN”), and blue (National–ACT–New Zealand First, indicated by “CR”). Majorities are calculated from estimated seats based on simulations of estimated percent support calculated from opinion poll data using generalised additive models between 6 November 2023 and 10 May 2026.
Text alternative for Estimated percent support by political party leader
A bar chart shows the estimated percent support by political party leader. Each bar is coloured to indicate leader: red (Chris Hipkins), blue (Christopher Luxon), black (Winston Peters), green (Chlöe Swarbrick), and magenta (David Seymour). From left to right, estimated percent support is 21.7% for Chris Hipkins, 19.6% for Christopher Luxon, 13.1% for Winston Peters, 6.5% for Chlöe Swarbrick, and 5.6% for David Seymour. Error bars show 95% credible intervals. Estimated percent support is calculated from opinion poll data using generalised additive models between 6 November 2023 and 10 May 2026.
Text alternative for Percent support by political party leader over time
A scatter plot with trend lines show percent support by political party leader based on opinion polls for the 2026 New Zealand General Election between 6 November 2023 and 10 May 2026. Points represent percent support from opinion polls and lines represent estimated percent support calculated using generalised additive models. Each point and line is coloured to indicate political party: red (Chris Hipkins), blue (Christopher Luxon), black (Winston Peters), green (Chlöe Swarbrick), and magenta (David Seymour). Generally, estimated percent support is very likely increasing for Chris Hipkins, almost certainly decreasing for Christopher Luxon, almost certainly increasing for Winston Peters, not significant for Chlöe Swarbrick, and not significant for David Seymour.
Disclaimer
This report is based on opinion polls and modelled estimates as of 10 May 2026. Opinion polls are subject to sampling error, methodological differences, and changes in public sentiment over time. Late campaign effects, voter turnout, and electorate-level dynamics are not explicitly modelled. Estimates of percent support, seats in Parliament, and preferred Prime Minister are not predictions of the actual election outcome and may differ from the results on 7 November 2026. Readers should interpret these figures as indicative trends rather than definitive forecasts.
The author is independent and does not endorse or favour any political party or candidate. The analysis is based solely on publicly available opinion poll data as of 10 May 2026 and is intended for informational purposes only.
Want to know more about me, including ways we can collaborate? Get in touch at lindsay.kiwi.