Port Tampa Bay — Commodity & Truck Forecast
2025–2050 | Low / Mid / High Scenarios
March 11, 2026
1 Executive Summary
This report forecasts cargo throughput, cruise passengers, and truck volumes at Port Tampa Bay from 2025 through 2050. It combines the port’s recent growth trends with federal freight projections to produce a 25-year outlook across five cargo categories, three PTB terminal areas, and three scenario levels (Low, Mid, High).
2050 Mid Scenario:
- TEUs: 561,397 (FY25 actual: 262,803)
- Liquid Bulk: 25,289,224 tons (FY25 actual: 21.5M)
- Cruise passengers: 2,717,043 (FY25 actual: 1.66M; unconstrained by Skyway Bridge)
- Daily port trucks: ~6,324 weekday average
All forecasts are anchored to FY25 observed values. Growth rates are derived from a blend of recent port trends and FAF5 projections, but the starting point is the actual 2025 throughput for each commodity. The table below shows the FY25 base values used.
| Commodity | FY25 Base Value |
|---|---|
| TEUs | 262,803 |
| Dry Bulk | 9,097,676 tons |
| Liquid Bulk | 21,459,422 tons |
| Break Bulk* | 1,864,828 tons |
| Vehicles | 51,899 units |
| Passengers | 1,660,315 |
*The Sharon Report “Break Bulk” category (1,864,828 tons) is broader than PTB’s publicly reported break-bulk figure (654K tons). Both the base value and growth rate in this forecast use the Sharon Report definition. ```
2 Commodity Forecast
The charts and tables below present throughput forecasts for five cargo categories. Near-term growth reflects recent port trends; by 2030, growth rates are driven entirely by FHWA Freight Analysis Framework (FAF5) projections. The shaded band reflects the wider of the FAF scenario range or a volatility measure derived from total port tonnage history.
2.1 Full-Port Control Totals
These totals cover the entire port — PTB terminals and private facilities combined. Terminal-level breakdowns follow in the next section.
| Commodity | Year | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEUs | 2,025 | 262,803 | 262,803 | 262,803 |
| Break Bulk | 2,025 | 1,864,828 | 1,864,828 | 1,864,828 |
| Dry Bulk | 2,025 | 9,097,676 | 9,097,676 | 9,097,676 |
| Liquid Bulk | 2,025 | 21,459,422 | 21,459,422 | 21,459,422 |
| Vehicles | 2,025 | 51,899 | 51,899 | 51,899 |
| Break Bulk | 2,030 | 2,317,473 | 2,410,649 | 2,503,825 |
| Break Bulk | 2,035 | 2,424,209 | 2,564,383 | 2,704,557 |
| Break Bulk | 2,040 | 2,545,295 | 2,727,921 | 2,910,547 |
| Break Bulk | 2,045 | 2,677,561 | 2,901,888 | 3,126,215 |
| Break Bulk | 2,050 | 2,820,150 | 3,086,949 | 3,353,748 |
| Dry Bulk | 2,030 | 8,478,545 | 8,819,432 | 9,160,319 |
| Dry Bulk | 2,035 | 9,157,721 | 9,687,245 | 10,216,769 |
| Dry Bulk | 2,040 | 9,928,102 | 10,640,448 | 11,352,794 |
| Dry Bulk | 2,045 | 10,756,185 | 11,687,444 | 12,590,927 |
| Dry Bulk | 2,050 | 11,549,100 | 12,837,462 | 13,946,980 |
| Liquid Bulk | 2,030 | 21,546,623 | 22,412,924 | 23,279,225 |
| Liquid Bulk | 2,035 | 21,837,096 | 23,099,775 | 24,362,454 |
| Liquid Bulk | 2,040 | 22,213,825 | 23,807,676 | 25,401,527 |
| Liquid Bulk | 2,045 | 22,640,449 | 24,537,270 | 26,434,091 |
| Liquid Bulk | 2,050 | 23,103,523 | 25,289,224 | 27,474,925 |
| TEUs | 2,030 | 329,473 | 342,720 | 355,967 |
| TEUs | 2,035 | 366,529 | 387,723 | 408,917 |
| TEUs | 2,040 | 409,271 | 438,636 | 468,001 |
| TEUs | 2,045 | 457,874 | 496,235 | 534,596 |
| TEUs | 2,050 | 512,876 | 561,397 | 609,918 |
| Vehicles | 2,030 | 72,870 | 75,800 | 78,730 |
| Vehicles | 2,035 | 77,440 | 81,918 | 86,396 |
| Vehicles | 2,040 | 82,602 | 88,529 | 94,456 |
| Vehicles | 2,045 | 88,279 | 95,675 | 103,071 |
| Vehicles | 2,050 | 94,461 | 103,397 | 112,333 |
Dry bulk is expected to soften in the near term due to cyclical construction-material demand and volatility in fertilizer-related commodities such as phosphate and sulfur. Over the longer term, growth resumes as Florida population growth and infrastructure investment support demand for cement and aggregates.
Early vehicle growth reflects recovery and expansion of vehicle imports following post-pandemic supply disruptions and the establishment of new vehicle-processing operations at Hookers Point.
2.2 PTB Terminal Forecast
The full-port commodity growth rates are applied directly to each terminal’s actual FY25 observed throughput. This anchors every forecast line to measured conditions and avoids discontinuities from share-based allocation. Terminal proportions are implicitly held at their 2025 values — actual shares will shift over time as capital projects and tenant changes occur. The PortVision2030 Low and High forecasts are shown for comparison.
The following chart breaks out the forecast by individual PTB terminal area. Hookers Point dominates across most commodity categories, handling all container and vehicle operations and the majority of liquid bulk. Port Redwing is the primary dry bulk facility, while Eastport handles a smaller share of break bulk and general cargo.
| Terminal | Commodity | Y2025 | Y2030 | Y2035 | Y2040 | Y2045 | Y2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR971 - Hookers Point | Break Bulk | 276,681 | 357,663 | 380,473 | 404,736 | 430,548 | 458,005 |
| AR971 - Hookers Point | Dry Bulk | 2,736,647 | 2,652,949 | 2,913,993 | 3,200,724 | 3,515,668 | 3,861,602 |
| AR971 - Hookers Point | Liquid Bulk | 10,058,329 | 10,505,248 | 10,827,185 | 11,158,988 | 11,500,959 | 11,853,410 |
| AR971 - Hookers Point | TEUs | 262,803 | 342,720 | 387,723 | 438,636 | 496,235 | 561,397 |
| AR971 - Hookers Point | Vehicles | 51,899 | 75,800 | 81,918 | 88,529 | 95,675 | 103,397 |
| AR972 - Eastport | Break Bulk | 9,196 | 11,888 | 12,646 | 13,452 | 14,310 | 15,223 |
| AR972 - Eastport | Dry Bulk | 4,378 | 4,244 | 4,662 | 5,120 | 5,624 | 6,178 |
| Port Redwing | Break Bulk | 1,277 | 1,651 | 1,756 | 1,868 | 1,987 | 2,114 |
| Port Redwing | Dry Bulk | 1,951,683 | 1,891,993 | 2,078,160 | 2,282,647 | 2,507,254 | 2,753,962 |
East Port currently handles minimal dry-bulk cargo; modeled values reflect historical share allocation rather than an operational forecast.
2.3 Passenger Forecast
Cruise passengers are forecast separately from cargo. The model starts from the FY25 observed count of 1,660,315 passengers and blends the recent recovery trend with long-run tourism employment growth from the Florida Department of Commerce (formerly DEO) industry employment projections for NAICS 72 (Accommodation & Food Services). The 2021 zero-passenger year is excluded from the trend fit.
This is an unconstrained forecast. The Sunshine Skyway Bridge limits vessels to 180 feet of air draft, which rules out most modern mega-class cruise ships. Only smaller vessels can currently reach PTB’s Channelside terminals. An FDOT study estimated the unconstrained Tampa cruise market could exceed 2.5 million passengers, but without a new terminal seaward of the bridge or a bridge replacement (~$2B), throughput will remain capacity-limited. If no infrastructure solution is implemented, actual cruise volumes could plateau near current levels.
| Year | Growth Rate | Passengers |
|---|---|---|
| 2,025 | 0% | 1,660,315 |
| 2,030 | 2.24% | 1,971,791 |
| 2,035 | 1.62% | 2,136,337 |
| 2,040 | 1.62% | 2,314,615 |
| 2,045 | 1.62% | 2,507,769 |
| 2,050 | 1.62% | 2,717,043 |
3 Benchmarks
This section checks the forecast against outside reference points: the prior PortVision2030 plan, statewide port data, regional market indicators, and observed truck counts.
3.1 Commodity Benchmark: PortVision2030
PortVision2030 (2016) produced Low and High forecasts for PTB terminals through 2030. The chart below compares those projections to the current forecast at the same scope.
PortVision2030 values are digitized from the original report and should be treated as approximate benchmarks.
| Commodity | PV2030 Low | PV2030 High | New Low | New Mid | New High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEUs | 157,000 | 406,000 | 329,473 | 342,720 | 355,967 |
| Break Bulk | 723,000 | 1,800,000 | 356,855 | 371,202 | 385,549 |
| Liquid Bulk | 9,000,000 | 14,000,000 | 10,099,201 | 10,505,248 | 10,911,295 |
| Dry Bulk | 5,400,000 | 9,500,000 | 4,373,352 | 4,549,186 | 4,725,020 |
3.2 Florida Seaport Context
Port Tampa Bay is the largest port in the state by total tonnage, driven by its petroleum and dry bulk operations. Container volumes are growing rapidly but remain smaller than Port Everglades, JAXPORT, or PortMiami in absolute terms.
3.3 Regional Logistics Market
Warehouse and distribution trends in Tampa Bay provide a useful check on the port’s growth outlook.
Industrial markets across the Tampa Bay area and the Southern Atlantic logistics region remain fundamentally healthy but are transitioning from the rapid expansion observed during the early 2020s to a more balanced growth phase. Warehouse vacancy in the Tampa–St. Petersburg logistics market was approximately 3% in late 2025, indicating continued strong demand for distribution space. At the broader regional level, warehouse vacancy reached roughly 7% during 2025 following elevated construction activity and is projected to gradually tighten over the remainder of the decade as newly delivered space is absorbed.
There is also a substantial pipeline of industrial development within roughly 100 miles of Port Tampa Bay, including more than 460 proposed warehouse projects totaling approximately 100 million square feet. While most of this pipeline remains conceptual and will depend on future leasing and capital market conditions, it reflects sustained developer interest in regional logistics and distribution infrastructure.
This outlook is broadly consistent with the moderate growth trajectory reflected in the port forecast. The regional industrial market remains supportive of continued expansion in logistics activity, suggesting favorable conditions for long-term growth in container volumes, bulk cargo distribution, and truck movements associated with Port Tampa Bay. At the same time, the transition from pandemic-era supply chain surges to steadier growth patterns aligns with the forecast’s use of FAF macro fundamentals as the long-run growth anchor.
3.4 Truck Benchmarks
The table below breaks down the 2025 truck estimate by commodity. Liquid Bulk generates roughly 43% of all truck trips despite having the lowest truck share — a reflection of Tampa’s enormous petroleum volumes. Even with most fuel moving by pipeline, the remaining truck-distributed portion is still the port’s largest single source of truck traffic.
| Commodity | Truck Share | Tons/Truck | Annual Trucks | Daily (÷260) | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEUs | 93.2% | 13.3 | 101,688 | 391 | 8.6% |
| Break Bulk | 83.9% | 17.6 | 106,619 | 410 | 9% |
| Dry Bulk | 73.9% | 17.9 | 449,527 | 1,729 | 38.2% |
| Liquid Bulk | 30.3% | 15.1 | 516,609 | 1,987 | 43.8% |
| Vehicles | 85% | 14.1 | 3,756 | 14 | 0.3% |
| Measure | Daily Trucks |
|---|---|
| Model estimate (full-port tonnage conversion) | 4,532 |
| Observed MU trucks (3 PTB gates, Feb 2024 weekday avg) | 4,795 |
| Observed all trucks incl. SU (3 PTB gates) | 5,617 |
| PV2030 — PTB areas only (base 2015)* | 7,041 |
| PV2030 — all terminals incl. private (base 2015) | 9,012 |
*PV2030 PTB-area subtotal = East Port (389) + Pendola Point (1,350) + Port Redwing (733) + Hookers Point (4,569) = 7,041. Excludes Port Tampa (665) and Port Ybor (1,306), which are private facilities.
3.4.1 Model vs. PV2030 Truck Counts
The model estimates ~4,532 daily trucks in 2025. The PV2030 report showed 7,041 at PTB areas in 2015. The gap likely reflects a combination of factors:
Different scope. Our 2024 tube counts cover three gates. PV2030 reported four PTB areas (East Port was counted separately). Some East Port traffic may now route through the Pendola Point gate.
Commodity decline. Dry Bulk — the most truck-intensive bulk category — fell from roughly 12 million tons in 2015 to 9–10 million tons by 2023–2025.
Different methodology. The PV2030 truck estimates and our model use different approaches to arrive at truck counts. The specific methodology behind PV2030’s truck figures is not documented in the materials available for this review.
How to read these numbers: The model, the gate counts, and PV2030 each measure different things. The model converts commodity tonnage to truck trips using FAF conversion factors. The 2024 gate count is a direct two-week observation of multi-unit vehicles. PV2030 used its own estimation approach at a broader set of access points. These numbers should not be expected to match. The model’s value is in forecasting growth from a consistent, commodity-driven base.
4 Truck Volume Forecast
This section converts the cargo forecast into truck trips. The conversion uses FAF data for three inputs: what share of each commodity moves by truck in the Tampa region, how many tons fit on a typical truck, and a 20% allowance for empty return trips. Only the Mid commodity scenario is shown — the truck conversion adds its own uncertainty that we have not separately quantified.
4.1 Mode Shares & Conversion Factors
Not all port tonnage generates truck traffic. Liquid Bulk has the lowest truck share (~30%) because petroleum products move partly by pipeline. Containers have the highest truck share at over 93%.
| Commodity | Truck Share | Avg Tons/Truck | TEU Factor (tons/TEU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Break Bulk | 83.9% | 17.6 | 1.00 |
| Dry Bulk | 73.9% | 17.9 | 1.00 |
| Liquid Bulk | 30.3% | 15.1 | 1.00 |
| TEUs | 93.2% | 13.3 | 4.61 |
| Vehicles | 85% | 14.1 | 1.00 |
4.2 Annual & Daily Truck Volumes
| Year | Annual Mid | Daily Mid |
|---|---|---|
| 2,025 | 1,178,199 | 4,532 |
| 2,030 | 1,251,264 | 4,813 |
| 2,035 | 1,337,324 | 5,144 |
| 2,040 | 1,430,994 | 5,504 |
| 2,045 | 1,533,042 | 5,896 |
| 2,050 | 1,644,320 | 6,324 |
4.3 Gate-Level Forecast
| gate | Y2025 | Y2030 | Y2035 | Y2040 | Y2045 | Y2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hookers Point | 3,630 | 3,855 | 4,120 | 4,409 | 4,723 | 5,066 |
| Pendola Point | 492 | 523 | 559 | 598 | 641 | 687 |
| Port Redwing | 409 | 435 | 464 | 497 | 532 | 571 |
5 Methodology
5.1 Data Sources
| Source | Description | Vintage |
|---|---|---|
| Sharon Report (FDOT) | Terminal throughput + full-port totals | FY2024/25 |
| FAF5.7.1 | Commodity freight forecasts by zone, mode, direction | 2024–2050 |
| FL Jobs (Dept. of Commerce) | NAICS industry employment forecasts | 2025–2033 |
| PortVision2030 | Prior strategic plan benchmark (cargo + trucks) | 2016 |
| Gate counts | 2-week tube/camera counts at 3 PTB gates | Feb 2024 |
| FDOT Seaport System Plan | Florida statewide port cargo data | 2023 |
| FAF payload factors | Tons per truck by SCTG2 commodity | National avg |
5.2 Commodity Forecast
Historical trends. Linear regression through full-port observed data (2019–2025). Full-port totals are used because individual terminal data is volatile due to berth assignment shifts.
FAF5 long-run rates. Directional growth rates — separate for inflows and outflows — weighted by the port’s actual import/export mix.
Blending. A linear ramp transitions from historical to FAF rates over five years. Growth begins in 2026 at 60% historical / 40% FAF and reaches 100% FAF by 2031. The 2025 base year is the actual observed value with no growth applied.
Control totals. Blended rates compounded year-by-year from the actual FY25 observed throughput for each commodity. The Low/High bands reflect the wider of two uncertainty measures: the FAF5 scenario spread or a volatility band derived from the standard deviation of year-over-year percentage changes in total port tonnage (all commodities combined). This single generalized factor avoids distortions from commodity-level reclassifications and startup effects. The band widens with the square root of years from the base, reflecting increasing uncertainty over longer horizons.
Terminal forecast. The same commodity-level growth rates are applied directly to each terminal’s actual FY25 observed throughput. This ensures forecast lines depart from observed data and avoids discontinuities from share-based allocation. Terminal shares are implicitly held constant at 2025 proportions.
5.3 Truck Conversion
Mode share. FAF regional truck share by commodity. Ranges from ~30% for Liquid Bulk to ~93% for TEUs.
Payload factors. Weighted-average tons per truck using the local SCTG2 commodity mix.
Empty factor. 20% added to loaded trips for empty returns.
Gate allocation. Distributed using Feb 2024 gate count proportions (Hookers Point 80.1%, Pendola Point 10.9%, Port Redwing 9%).
6 Notes & Assumptions
Cargo categories. The five commodity categories in this forecast follow the Sharon Report definitions, which differ from PTB’s public reporting categories. In particular, the Sharon Report “Break Bulk” column (~1.86M tons in FY25) is broader than PTB’s publicly reported break-bulk figure (~654K tons). Growth rates are derived from FAF commodity codes mapped to these Sharon Report categories.
Passengers. Forecast anchored to observed FY25 value (1,660,315) and grown using NAICS 72 (Accommodation & Food Services) employment as a long-run tourism proxy. ±1.5% spread produces Low/High to reflect structural uncertainty, including the Sunshine Skyway Bridge air-draft restriction on cruise vessel size. The forecast represents demand-side potential; actual throughput may be constrained by infrastructure.
Terminal shares. Terminal forecasts apply port-wide commodity growth rates to each terminal’s actual FY25 throughput, implicitly holding shares at 2025 proportions. Actual shares will shift over time as capital projects and tenant changes materialize — including container terminal expansion, East Port and Port Redwing development, and petroleum complex investments described in PortVision2030.
FAF zone scope. Zone 124 covers Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, all freight modes. Growth rates reflect regional commodity demand. Port share of regional freight assumed stable.
Truck calibration. The full-port tonnage conversion is used as a preliminary PTB truck estimate. This is directionally reasonable because some major private-terminal volumes move by non-truck modes — notably Mosaic’s phosphate exports by vessel/barge, and petroleum products moved via the Central Florida Pipeline. However, FAF mode shares are regional averages that include multiple-mode and no-domestic-mode categories and do not map directly to port gate counts. In particular, liquid-bulk terminals have substantial truck-loading rack infrastructure for local and regional fuel distribution, so the pipeline story does not mean liquid terminals generate minimal truck traffic. The model output should be treated as a planning-level estimate. Further refinement would benefit from port-specific mode share data.
Liquid Bulk truck sensitivity. Liquid Bulk accounts for approximately 43% of all modeled truck trips, making the liquid-bulk truck share the single most influential assumption in the truck forecast. This estimate is especially sensitive to the commodity mix within liquid bulk (crude vs refined products vs chemicals) and local distribution patterns. It should be revisited if terminal rack throughput, petroleum distribution, or pipeline capacity data become available.
Gate count sample. Two-week counts from February 2024. Seasonal variation is not captured. Gate shares should be updated with longer-duration counts when available.
Empty truck factor. Set at 20% nationally. Local rates may differ based on backhaul availability.
Report generated March 11, 2026 at 10:50 AM