Based on State Size
##
## --- OLS Regression (Linear Model) ---
##
## --- Poisson GLM: Minor Parties by State Size ---
##
## --- Negative Binomial GLM ---
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = n_minor ~ size_category, data = minors_size_data)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -1.6207 -0.7879 -0.1407 0.8593 3.8593
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 0.7879 0.1142 6.899 3.98e-11 ***
## size_categoryMiddle (7-38 seats) 0.3529 0.1504 2.347 0.019682 *
## size_categoryLarge (39+ seats) 0.8328 0.2399 3.471 0.000607 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 1.136 on 260 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.04908, Adjusted R-squared: 0.04177
## F-statistic: 6.71 on 2 and 260 DF, p-value: 0.001441
## Family: poisson ( log )
## Formula: n_minor ~ size_category
## Data: minors_size_data
##
## AIC BIC logLik -2*log(L) df.resid
## 729.3 740.0 -361.7 723.3 260
##
##
## Conditional model:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -0.2384 0.1132 -2.106 0.03524 *
## size_categoryMiddle (7-38 seats) 0.3701 0.1390 2.663 0.00774 **
## size_categoryLarge (39+ seats) 0.7213 0.1847 3.906 9.38e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## Family: nbinom2 ( log )
## Formula: n_minor ~ size_category
## Data: minors_size_data
##
## AIC BIC logLik -2*log(L) df.resid
## 726.7 741.0 -359.3 718.7 259
##
##
## Dispersion parameter for nbinom2 family (): 5.07
##
## Conditional model:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -0.2384 0.1217 -1.959 0.050129 .
## size_categoryMiddle (7-38 seats) 0.3701 0.1509 2.453 0.014179 *
## size_categoryLarge (39+ seats) 0.7213 0.2071 3.483 0.000497 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Effect of State Size on Number of Minor Parties
## ==============================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -----------------------------------
## Number of Minor Parties
## OLS Poisson Negative Binomial
## (1) (2) (3)
## --------------------------------------------------------------
## Middle States (7-38 seats) 0.353** 0.370*** 0.370**
## (0.150) (0.139) (0.151)
##
## Large States (39+ seats) 0.833*** 0.721*** 0.721***
## (0.240) (0.185) (0.207)
##
## Constant (Small States) 0.788*** -0.238** -0.238*
## (0.114) (0.113) (0.122)
##
## --------------------------------------------------------------
## Observations 263 263 263
## R2 0.049
## Adjusted R2 0.042
## Log Likelihood -361.661 -360.334
## Akaike Inf. Crit. 729.321 726.669
## ==============================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
##
## Average Number of True Minor Parties by State Size (No Intercept)
## ==============================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -----------------------------------
## Number of Minor Parties
## OLS Poisson Negative Binomial
## (1) (2) (3)
## --------------------------------------------------------------
## Small States (<7 seats) 0.788*** -0.238** -0.238*
## (0.114) (0.113) (0.122)
##
## Middle States (7-38 seats) 1.141*** 0.132 0.132
## (0.098) (0.081) (0.089)
##
## Large States (39+ seats) 1.621*** 0.483*** 0.483***
## (0.211) (0.146) (0.168)
##
## --------------------------------------------------------------
## Log Likelihood -405.275 -361.661 -359.334
## Akaike Inf. Crit. 818.55 729.321 726.669
## Observations 263 263 263
## ==============================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
Effect of Assembly Size
##
## Effect of Vidhan Sabha Size on Number of Minor Parties (Vote 1-5%, Seats 1-15%)
## ====================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -------------------------------------
## Number of Minor Parties
## OLS Poisson Negative Binomial
## (1) (2) (3)
## --------------------------------------------------------------------
## Number of Seats (Vidhan Sabha) 0.0024*** 0.0019*** 0.0019***
## (0.0006) (0.0004) (0.0004)
## Constant 0.9138** -0.0556 -0.0561
## (0.3676) (0.2526) (0.2538)
## --------------------------------------------------------------------
## Year Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes
## Log Likelihood -569.121 -507.694 -507.692
## Akaike Inf. Crit. 1258.242 1133.388 1135.385
## Observations 371 371 371
## ====================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
##
## Comparing Minor Party Definitions against House Strength
## =====================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## --------------------------------------------------
## Number of Minor Parties n_minor_absolute
## Current (Seat % Rule) New (Absolute 1 Seat Rule)
## (1) (2)
## ---------------------------------------------------------------------
## House Strength 0.0021*** 0.0035***
## (0.0005) (0.0004)
## Constant -0.1067 -0.1461
## (0.2551) (0.2203)
## ---------------------------------------------------------------------
## Year Fixed Effects Yes Yes
## Log Likelihood -472.76 -517.98
## AIC 1063.52 1153.96
## Observations 371 371
## =====================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
##
## --- REGRESSION RESULTS: ASSEMBLY SIZE VS. INDIVIDUAL VOTE SHARE ---
##
## Effect of Assembly Size on Individual Minor Party Strength
## ================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## --------------------------------------------
## Individual Minor Party Vote Share (%)
## Base OLS Year FE
## (1) (2)
## --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Vidhan Sabha Size (Number of Seats) -0.0011** -0.0011**
## (0.0004) (0.0005)
## Constant 2.7426*** 3.0161***
## (0.0967) (0.2453)
## --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Year Fixed Effects No Yes
## Observations 557 557
## R2 0.0109 0.1174
## Adjusted R2 0.0091 0.0186
## F Statistic 6.1123** (df = 1; 555) 1.1881 (df = 56; 500)
## ================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
Effect of Micro Parties
##
## Effect of Micro Parties on Number of Minor Parties
## ============================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ------------------------------------
## Number of Minor Parties
## OLS Poisson Negative Binomial
## (1) (2) (3)
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Number of Micro Parties -0.0045* -0.0044 -0.0044
## (0.0024)
## Constant 1.9368*** 0.6909 0.6909
## (0.3699)
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Year Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes
## State Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes
## Log Likelihood -453.519 -421.385 -421.385
## Akaike Inf. Crit. 1087.037 1020.771 1022.771
## Observations 371 371 371
## ============================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
Effect of Major Parties
##
## Effect of Major Parties on Number of Minor Parties
## ============================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ------------------------------------
## Number of Minor Parties
## OLS Poisson Negative Binomial
## (1) (2) (3)
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Number of Major Parties -0.0669 -0.0377 -0.0377
## (0.0985) (0.0990)
## Constant 2.0611*** 0.7873 0.7873**
## (0.3842) (0.3377)
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Year Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes
## State Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes
## Log Likelihood -454.002 -417.695
## Akaike Inf. Crit. 1088.005 1013.389
## Observations 371 371 371
## ============================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
Effect of ENOP
##
## Effect of Electoral Variables on Number of Minor Parties
## =================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ----------------------------------------------
## Number of Minor Parties
## ENOP (Poisson) ENOP (NegBin) Turnout (Poisson)
## (1) (2) (3)
## -----------------------------------------------------------------
## ENOP 0.387*** 0.387***
## (0.090) (0.090)
## Turnout Percentage -0.0001
##
## Constant -0.637* -0.637* 0.417
## (0.331) (0.331)
## -----------------------------------------------------------------
## Year Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes
## Log Likelihood -475.01 -475.01 -482.33
## AIC 1068.01 1070.01 1082.66
## Observations 372 372 370
## =================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
State size and Tipping Point
## [1] "The exact 50% tipping point is a vote share of: 1.96 %"
Effect of top two competitiveness
##
## --- REGRESSION RESULTS ---
##
## Effect of Top-2 Competitiveness on Minor Parties
## =====================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------------------
## Number of Minor Parties
## OLS Poisson OLS Poisson
## OLS Poisson OLS (FE) Poisson (FE)
## (1) (2) (3) (4)
## ---------------------------------------------------------------------
## Vote Share Diff b/w Top 2 (%) -0.006 -0.003 0.0003 0.002
## (0.008) (0.003) (0.009) (0.005)
## Constant 2.352*** 0.856*** 3.397*** 1.182***
## (0.137) (0.054) (0.616) (0.281)
## ---------------------------------------------------------------------
## State Fixed Effects No No Yes Yes
## Year Fixed Effects No No Yes Yes
## Observations 369 369 369 369
## R2 0.002 0.510
## Adjusted R2 -0.001 0.356
## Log Likelihood -688.478 -569.360
## =====================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
##
## --- REGRESSION RESULTS ---
##
## Effect of Top-2 Competitiveness on Minor Party Vote Share
## =========================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -------------------------------------------
## Total Minor Party Vote Share (%)
## OLS (Base) OLS (FE)
## (1) (2)
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Vote Share Diff b/w Top 2 (%) -0.011 -0.005
## (0.020) (0.025)
## Constant 5.472*** 8.131***
## (0.342) (1.615)
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------
## State Fixed Effects No Yes
## Year Fixed Effects No Yes
## Observations 369 369
## R2 0.001 0.458
## Adjusted R2 -0.002 0.287
## F Statistic 0.328 (df = 1; 367) 2.687*** (df = 88; 280)
## =========================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
##
## --- REGRESSION RESULTS (INDIVIDUAL PARTY LEVEL) ---
##
## Effect of Competitiveness on Individual Minor Party Vote Share
## ================================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ------------------------------------------------------------------
## Individual Minor Party Vote Share (%)
## OLS (Base) State+Year FE Three-Way FE
## (1) (2) (3)
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Vote Share Diff b/w Top 2 (%) 0.005 -0.003 -0.006
## (0.006) (0.009) (0.010)
## Constant 2.640*** 2.825*** 3.744**
## (0.087) (0.488) (1.519)
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## State Fixed Effects No Yes Yes
## Year Fixed Effects No Yes Yes
## Party Fixed Effects No No Yes
## Observations 421 421 421
## R2 0.002 0.254 0.557
## Adjusted R2 -0.001 0.067 0.131
## F Statistic 0.644 (df = 1; 419) 1.361** (df = 84; 336) 1.308** (df = 206; 214)
## ================================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
Minor Parties and Turnout
##
## --- ANALYSIS 1: IMPACT ON INDIVIDUAL VOTE SHARE ---
##
## The Turnout Squeeze: Effect of Voter Mobilization on Individual Minor Party Vote Share
## ==========================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ------------------------------------------------------------------
## Individual Minor Party Vote Share (%)
## OLS (Base) State+Year FE Three-Way FE
## (1) (2) (3)
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## State Voter Turnout (%) -0.003 -0.006 0.004
## (0.004) (0.011) (0.013)
## Constant 2.922*** 3.093*** 3.329**
## (0.301) (0.767) (1.652)
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## State Fixed Effects No Yes Yes
## Year Fixed Effects No Yes Yes
## Party Fixed Effects No No Yes
## Observations 421 421 421
## R2 0.001 0.254 0.557
## Adjusted R2 -0.001 0.068 0.130
## F Statistic 0.591 (df = 1; 419) 1.364** (df = 84; 336) 1.305** (df = 206; 214)
## ==========================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
##
## --- ANALYSIS 2: IMPACT ON NUMBER OF MINOR PARTIES ---
##
## The Turnout Squeeze: Effect of Turnout on the Total Number of Minor Parties
## ===============================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------------------
## Number of Minor Parties in Assembly
## OLS Poisson OLS Poisson
## OLS Poisson OLS (FE) Poisson (FE)
## (1) (2) (3) (4)
## ---------------------------------------------------------------
## State Voter Turnout (%) -0.004 -0.003 0.016* 0.015
## (0.005) (0.004) (0.008) (0.009)
## Constant 1.403*** 0.360 1.037* -0.149
## (0.346) (0.271) (0.618) (0.635)
## ---------------------------------------------------------------
## State Fixed Effects No No Yes Yes
## Year Fixed Effects No No Yes Yes
## Observations 370 370 370 370
## R2 0.002 0.517
## Adjusted R2 -0.001 0.366
## Log Likelihood -532.811 -417.370
## ===============================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
Deposit Loss
##
## --- Deposit Loss and Contestation ---
##
## Effect of Contestation on Deposit Forfeiture Rates
## ===================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -------------------------------------------------
## Deposit Lost Rate (%)
## OLS (Base) OLS (Fixed Effects)
## (1) (2)
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Percentage of State Contested (%) 0.930*** 0.863***
## (0.035) (0.037)
## Constant 35.023*** 33.365***
## (1.359) (5.687)
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## State Fixed Effects No Yes
## Year Fixed Effects No Yes
## Observations 778 778
## R2 0.471 0.645
## Adjusted R2 0.471 0.603
## F Statistic 692.103*** (df = 1; 776) 15.219*** (df = 83; 694)
## ===================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
