Are Canadian Elections Safe from Foreign Interference?

What Canadians think and why trust and partisanship matter (CES 2021)

Stefano Toffoletto

2026-03-02

What comes to mind when you hear foreign interference?

Foreign interference: covert, deceptive, or coercive activity by a foreign state or its proxies targeting Canada, Canadians, or Canadian interests

What is CSIS
Context (early 2010s framing): foreign interference was often discussed as foreign governments influencing diaspora communities in Canada.
diaspora communities = people living in Canada who have ties to another country.
Example: “I’m Italian so imagine the Italian government trying to influence me (or members of the Italian-Canadian community) through targeted messaging, community newspaper or media, to vote for a party that will benefit the interests of the italian government.”
Shift to 2019 framing: the conversation expands beyond diaspora-only influence to society-wide influence operations, including:
- online disinformation and social media manipulation aimed at the general public
- efforts to shape political debate and election narratives
- reports of pressure or intimidation connected to politicians and communities
Transition: “With that context, here’s the official CSIS/Government of Canada definition…”

Survey2021: Canadian Election Study
Measure: “How confident are you that our elections are safe from foreign interference?”
Motivation: Even when interference does not change results, it can weaken democratic legitimacy by lowering perceived election integrity.

Partisanship matters because voters may differ in how much they trust the governing party to protect elections
Supporters of non-governing parties may be less confident in the government’s ability to protect elections

Key takeaway:
- How safe people feel elections are from foreign interference depends a lot on politics.
- People who trust the government less are much less confident elections are safe, and party differences are biggest when trust is low.
Implication:
- Protecting democracy isn’t just about making elections secure. It iss also about making sure people believe the system is fair and trustworthy.