In this assignment, I will evaluate chess player performance using the ELO rating system based on results from the Project 1 tournament. The goal is to compare each player’s actual performance to their expected performance, as determined by the difference between the player’s pre-tournament rating and the average pre-tournament rating of their opponents.
To calculate expected performance, I will use the standard ELO expected score formula, which estimates the probability of a player scoring a point against an opponent based on rating differences. Because Project 1 already computed the average pre-rating of each player’s opponents, this value can be used directly to estimate each player’s expected score across the tournament. Actual performance will be measured using each player’s total tournament points.
Overperformance and underperformance will be calculated as the difference between a player’s actual score and expected score. Players with the largest positive differences will be classified as overperformers, while those with the largest negative differences will be classified as underperformers. The final results will list the five players who most exceeded expectations and the five players who fell furthest below expectations.
One anticipated challenge is ensuring that the correct rating values are used consistently, particularly distinguishing pre-tournament ratings from post-tournament ratings. Another challenge involves handling special game outcomes such as byes, forfeits, or unplayed games, which may affect total points but not reflect head-to-head competition. Careful validation of the input data and clear documentation of assumptions will be necessary to ensure accurate and reproducible ELO calculations.