Measles forcasting

Author

Addisu Gasheneit

Published

February 20, 2026

Introduction

A measles case is defined as a person who develops fever and a generalized maculopapular (non-vesicular) rash together with at least one of the following symptoms: cough, coryza (runny nose), or conjunctivitis (red eyes), and is epidemiologically linked to a confirmed case or laboratory confirmed by detection of measles virus–specific IgM antibodies. According to World Health Organization surveillance standards, suspected cases should be promptly reported and investigated to enable early outbreak detection and response.

objective

To forecast measles case in Ethiopia

General objective

Specific objective

To forecast future measles case

Method

data source

PHEM EPHI

method of data analysis

AREMA Model

Result

the ssvv

plot(mtcars$mpg, mtcars$disp)

library(ggplot2)
ggplot(mtcars, aes(x = mpg, y =disp))+
  geom_point()+
  theme_classic()

measles <- read_csv("Data/measles_data_final.csv", show_col_types = FALSE)

measles |>
  ggplot(aes(x = date, y = measles_total)) +
  geom_line(color = "steelblue", linewidth = 0.9) +
  geom_point(color = "steelblue", size = 0.6) +
  labs(
   #| title = "Monthly Measles Cases (2012-2024)",
    x = "Date",
    y = "Total cases (monthly)"
  ) +
  scale_x_date(date_breaks = "2 year", date_labels = "%Y") +
  theme_minimal(base_size = 14)

Figure 1: Monthly reported measles cases in Ethiopia, 2012-2024

#| echo: false